Matt Garza Traded To Chicago Cubs: 10 Factors To Consider
The Cubs have agreed to acquire right-handed pitcher Matt Garza from the Tampa Bay Rays for a package of prospects on Friday. The Cubs will send Chris Archer, Brandon Guyer, Robinson Chirinos, Hak Ju-Lee and Sam Fuld to the Rays for Garza and a minor-league pitcher and a minor-league outfielder, according to Bruce Levine.
Garza is only 27, so he is a young pitcher who will be under club control for three years. So why would the Rays trade him? For one, they are trading from a position of strength. They already have a solid rotation penciled in for 2011.
Further, the Rays are in cost-cutting move and Garza is arbitration eligible. He earned $3.35 million last season and stands to earn around $6 million in 2011.
Plus, the haul for the Rays is terrific. They obtain arguably the Cubs' top pitching prospect in Archer, whose ceiling is that of a No. 2 or No. 3 starter in the MLB, and a potential star in shortstop Hak Ju-Lee, who is only 20 and a defensive whiz with speed and an offense that may not be powerful, but should be effective.
The fact that the Cubs were able to make this trade without giving up Starlin Castro, Tyler Colvin or Andre Casher is somewhat of a coup for GM Jim Hendry. Still, this trade really strips the Cubs system bare.
Let's take a look at this trade from multiple angles, see why it was made and what it means going forward.
Hendry Is Trying To Balance Rebuilding with Keeping Butts in the Seats
1 of 10
Garza helps now while Archer is a year or two away, and that provides hope to a Cubs fanbase that is not in the mood to wait for a winner. The fanbase started to show it last season when some failed to show up for their season tickets.
So, while Tom Ricketts may have said the club needs to build through the draft, they know that a true rebuilding process will not sit well with Cubs fans, who have waited their entire lifetimes for a champion.
Enter Garza, who is perhaps the perfect blend of youth and experience for the Cubs. From the standpoint of trying to show that the team is determined to win now, this is a good move. Likewise, they can point to his age as part of the youth movement at the same time.
Garza Is Only 27 and Under Team Control
2 of 10
Garza is only 27 and is eligible for arbitration. He will also be under team control in 2012 and 2013 and is not eligible for free agency until 2014.
In terms of standard rate stats, Garza was 15-10 with a 3.91 ERA last season, striking out 150 in just over 204 innings, while walking 63.
In terms of advanced metrics, however, Garza doesn't fare so well.
Thirty-two pitchers in the AL rated better in xFIP (fielding-independednt pitching), at 4.51. Garza's WAR was only 1.8, with only a few AL pitchers worse among those that qualified last year.
In short, Garza is a good pitcher but certainly not an ace.
Is Matt Garza Really Aaron Harang?
3 of 10
FanGraphs' Dave Cameron posted an article that shows how the Cubs could have simply signed Harang if they wanted a pitcher very comparable to Garza, and it would cost them nothing in terms of prospects.
Here's the comp he posted:
"Over the last three seasons, here are their respective lines:
Garza: 3.05 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.09 HR/9, 38.9% GB%, 4.39 xFIP
Harang: 2.57 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.47 HR/9, 35.1% GB%, 4.21 xFIP"
Now, it is critical to point out that Garza has pitched in a tougher league in a much rougher division. Still, accounting for that, here's what Cameron went on to write:
"But the reality is that these two are similar pitchers, and while one of them signed a one year, $4 million contract as a free agent this winter, the other is apparently going to cost a king’s ransom to acquire in trade, and then will earn more than that through arbitration anyway."
Ouch.
.png?w=256)
Guyer and Fuld Not Really Prospects
4 of 10
The outfielders that the Rays are receiving in this deal are too old to be considered true prospects, they are more organizational filler at this point. While Guyer did hit for average and some power last season, playing at 25 years old in the minors means you are not really a prospect any longer.
Guyer's ceiling is that of a fourth outfielder and the Cubs already have that with Tyler Colvin. But Colvin has already demonstrated some success with the major league club and has translated his power into more home runs than Guyer.
Guyer does have speed and steals bases at a high percentage clip, swiping 30 last season while only being caught three times.
Guyer can play all three outfield positions, though he has manned center field most often.
The only way this trade could have been better is if the Cubs had been able to include just Sam Fuld and used Guyer as a fourth outfielder, but the Rays would have none of that apparently.
Cubs Don't Seem To Have a Plan
5 of 10
While I like the trade on the surface, exactly what does this say for the Cubs' plan for the future?
When the Tribune opened the purse strings for Hendry back in November 2006, he went out and signed Alfonso Soriano, who was the top free agent on the market at the time, to a whopping eight years and $136 million. They were going for it and were spending someone else's money.
They contended for awhile, winning consecutive division titles for the first time in club history, but that window has closed. It is nailed shut. There are shutters on those windows and a vacany sign on the front door. That ship has sailed. It may have been rudderless, but it sailed anyway and went adrift of the ultimate goal of winning the World Series.
So, instead of learning from that mistake, that you can't buy a championship unless you are the Yankees (and even then it doesn't always work), they say one thing yet do another.
Ricketts says they need to build through the draft and focus on player development, yet go out and spend $10 million on .196-hitting Carlos Pena because he is a veteran. Now, they go out and get Garza, because he is a (young) veteran.
Look, it's easy to see what the Cubs are trying to do here, but history has shown it won't work. I do like the idea of getting a proven young starter who is under team control, but I wish I understood the club's plans better. They may first have to tell Hendry and Ricketts.
Trade Makes Sense For The Rays
6 of 10
Even without Garza, the Rays rotation is pretty solid, with David Price, James Shields, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson.
Plus, the Rays would be at least doubling Garza's pay for 2011, with an arbitration award, so if they want to reduce payroll this move makes sense, especially given the other choices they already have in the rotation.
This adds to an already impressive farm system for the Rays, who do a much better job of balancing winning now with building for the future than the Cubs could ever hope to do.
The Cubs seem to have overpaid for Garza. If they were willing to move this kind of talent, why didn't they go after Adrian Gonzalez? The Padres seem to have gotten less for Gonzo than what the Cubs gave up for Garza.
I'll tell you why: it's because they knew they wouldn't be able to afford to extend him, while they will have Garza under team control for three years.
Lee Is Blocked By Castro?
7 of 10
Well, yes, on the surface, that would appear to be the case, and I'm sure that is what Hendry will point to when discussing his willingness to move Hak Ju-Lee. But in reality, I'm not sure that Castro will be good enough defensively to stay at short over the long term, and a move to second base when Lee was ready doesn't seem too far-fetched in my opinion.
In A-ball in 2010, Lee had a slash of .330/.399/.420, though he probably won't be able to maintain a BABIP of nearly .400.
Lee is also considered to be the better of the two defensively.
Chris Archer Projects To Be Ready in 2012
8 of 10
Along with Lee, the clear object of the Rays' affection in this trade is Archer. He was obtained from the Indians in the Mark DeRosa trade and the 6'3" right-hander showed a lot of promise between A+ and AA last year.
Combined, Archer was 15-3 with a FIP of around 3.10. His K/9 was great and while control can sometimes be an issue, keep in mind that he is only recently turned 22.
But selling Cubs fans on having to wait a year for Archer is more difficult than plugging a known commodity like Garza into the rotation. In a couple years, however, we may be wondering just what Hendry was thinking.
Robinson Chirinos Is the Mystery Man in This Deal
9 of 10
Chirinos could be the key to this trade, but it is difficult to project what his MLB future will be.
He is certainly an interesting case as an infielder who was converted to catcher. He has tons of power and hit very well in the minors last year, but he is 27 years old. Further, his defense has progressed to the point where he has impressed scouts.
Since the Cubs have another late bloomer in Geovany Soto and a semi-prospect in Wellington Castillo, they are trading from depth here. But don't be surprised if Chirinos makes Hendry rue this trade.
Does This Trade Make the Cubs Contenders in 2011?
10 of 10
Well, that is the million dollar question for if it doesn't, then one would have to really question why Hendry gave up so much of the future for a guy who doesn't seem to push the team above the Reds, Brewers and Cards in the division.
Sure, Garza adds to what is potentially an excellent rotation, even if it lacks a true ace, but with the addition of Garza plus Pena and Wood, Hendry seems to be trying to re-open that window of opportunity that appeared shut.
Let's hope he is successful, for if not, then the Cubs may regret this trade big time.
.png?w=480)
