2011 NFL Mock Draft: Without Andrew Luck, Who Will Carolina Take First Overall?
For the best part of a month, and especially after his performance in the Orange Bowl, Andrew Luck has been the consensus first overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.
However, now that he has decided to stay at Stanford to finish his degree, this honour is once again undecided.
This preliminary mock draft covers the first round. Because the order of the playoff teams is unclear, I have ordered the final 12 selections by win percentage.
No. 1: Carolina Panthers, Patrick Peterson (CB)
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Without Andrew Luck, the Carolina Panthers will just take the best player on the board because they have holes everywhere.
Robert Quinn is an option to replace Julius Peppers, or A.J Green to give Steve Smith help given their weakness at Quarterback.
However, the best player in the draft is now Patrick Peterson, and this will make him the No. 1 pick.
Peterson has very good size for a cornerback (6'1", 220 lbs), and also runs a sub-4.40 dash.
He will vastly improve the Panthers secondary and augment their toothless return game.
No. 2: Denver Broncos, Nick Fairley (DT)
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The Denver Broncos do need a cornerback with Champ Bailey leaving and Cox verging on arrest.
However, the Broncos also need to stiffen their run defense.
Jamal Williams is close to retirement and nowhere near as good as he was in his prime.
Nick Fairley would help the pass rush, which disappeared with the injury of Elvis Dumervil.
Fairley's size would give him an advantage defending the run as a 3-4 end.
He weighs in at 300 lbs and stands 6'5".
No. 3: Buffalo Bills, Robert Quinn (DE)
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The Buffalo Bills need to find a pass rush somewhere, especially with the failure of Aaron Maybin and the departure of Aaron Schobel.
Robert Quinn is the best pure pass rusher in the draft.
He is 6'5" 268 lbs, and has unreal explosion and speed.
He has a great motor and strength, and could rush as a linebacker or with his hand on the ground.
No. 4: Cincinnati Bengals, De'quan Bowers (DE)
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The Bengals need a new marquee pass rusher now that Antwaan Odom is struggling with injury.
Da'quan Bowers is an ideal upgrade.
Bowers exploded onto the scene this year after underperforming his first two college seasons. He is well sized to play as a 4-3 pass rushing end at 6'4", 280 lbs.
He has long arms, strength and off-the-line explosion, and was the best pass rusher in college football last year.
He drops below Quinn because he is a one-year wonder at the moment.
No. 5: Arizona Cardinals, Ryan Mallet (QB)
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Now that Andrew Luck is going back to Stanford, Mallet is the top quarterback prospect in the draft.
Arizona needs a quarterback NOW. Otherwise their marquee player, Larrry Fitzgerald, will ask to be traded elsewhere.
Ryan Mallet is big for a quarterback, but is not very mobile. He has a very strong arm, which has drawn comparisons to Matthew Stafford, and he has improved his accuracy this season to a 70% completion percentage.
He looks to be an ideal pocket passer.
No. 6: Cleveland Browns, Marcell Dareus (DT)
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The Cleveland Browns need to improve their front seven, and with Nick Fairley and Robert Quinn already off the board, Marcell Dareus is their best pick.
Dareus is one the best prospects to play a 3-4 defensive end in the country. He stands 6'3" and weighs 306 lbs.
He is supremely athletic for his size, and can both stuff the run and rush the passer using his strength and acceleration.
Dareus also has a good motor, which is surprising for a player of his abilities and weight.
No. 7: San Francisco 49ers, Jake Locker (QB)
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With Jim Harbaugh coming in as the new head coach for the 49ers, he will want to establish his control over the team in his first draft.
The best way for him to do this is to replace Alex Smith.
Having coached Andrew Luck into a first overall talent player, he should be able to get the best out of Jake Locker.
Locker is a very capable runner in the mould of Tim Tebow.
Although he does not have monster arm strength or great accuracy, Locker played in a pro-style offense at Washington.
He is also a great leader and has good intangibles.
No. 8: Tennessee Titans, AJ Green (WR)
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The Titans experiment with Randy Moss was a failure, and they still need another wide receiver to take pressure of Kenny Britt.
The Titans do not really need to take a wide receiver this early, but you can't pass on a talent like AJ Green at No. 8.
Green is possibly the best rookie wide receiver since Randy Moss.
He is big at 6'4" and 207 lbs, is fast enough to run past corners and has good hands.
His route running does need work, but he will still be dominant in his first season, and possibly earn rookie of the year.
No. 9: Dallas Cowboys, Adrian Clayborn (DE)
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The vaunted Cowboys defense of last season now needs a major overhaul, primarily on the defensive line.
Barring DeMarcus Ware, the linebackers played a lot worse in 2010 due to the defensive line failing to lock up the offensive line.
Clayborn is another ideal 3-4 defensive end. At 285 lbs, he is blessed with great strength and sticks to his running lanes well.
This makes him a good run defender. He also has short-range speed and a good range of power moves. He is a relentless rusher.
No. 10: Washington Redskins, Blaine Gabbert (QB)
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Mike Shanahan has realised that Donovan McNabb will not be in his long term plans with the hogs, and Rex Grossman will never be on any list of ideal NFL starters.
They might target a quarterback in free agency, but Shanahan would rather develop one from scratch.
Blaine Gabbert is big for a quarterback, and is blessed with great arm strength and intangibles (which differs him from JaMarcus Russell).
He did play in a gimmick offense in college and can get lazy with footwork and throwing technique, but Shanahan will be confident he can coach it out of him.
No. 11: Houston Texans, Prince Amukamara (CB)
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The Texans secondary has been truly awful this year. While they did take Kareem Jackson in the first round last year, the Texans cannot pass up a chance to draft Amukamara, who is the best pure corner back in the draft.
Like Peterson, Amukamara has great size for a corner back, weighing in at 205 lbs and standing 6'1".
He also has good short burst speed and fluid hips, which let him close quickly and recover lost ground.
He also is very effective against the run.
Amukamara lacks top end speed and has suspect hands, but passes are rarely completed against him, which makes him an ideal No. 1 corner back to team with Kareem Jackson.
No. 12: Minnesota Vikings, Nate Solder (OT)
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One reason the Vikings went from losers of the NFC Championship game to losers full stop was the deterioration of the offensive line's play.
They need a new offensive tackle to protect Joe Webb and help open lanes for Adrian Peterson.
Solder is a monster of an offensive tackle. He is 6'9" and weighs 310 lbs.
He played tight end for two seasons, and that is reflected in his athleticism and quick feet.
He is best at the run game opening lanes, but is a developing pass protector. He has by far the most upside of all offensive tackles in the draft.
He could easily add another 30 lbs to his frame.
The Vikings are likely to sit him behind Bryant McKinnie for a year to develop.
No. 13: Detroit Lions, Brandon Harris (CB)
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I believe the Lions will actually want to trade down to pick at about 25 in the first round.
But for the purpose of this mock draft, they will pick Brandon Harris to shore up their secondary (even if they trade down they could probably still pick Harris at about 25 overall).
Harris may not be a big as Amukamara and Peterson, but he has very fluid hips, amazing speed and a fast first step.
He is also mentally tough, which is an important attribute for a rookie corner back.
No. 14: St Louis Rams, Julio Jones (WR)
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Sam Bradford had amazing rookie season with little offensive help from his receivers. He needs a go-to guy who can make all the catches.
With AJ Green off the board, they will take the next best player at the position.
Julio Jones is a big, tall receiver at 6'4" and 220 lbs. He is the best run after the catch receiver in the draft.
Jones runs a 4.44 40-yard dash and has great ball skills. He makes can make catches over the middle with the best of them.
He does drop too many catchable passes, but his playmaking abilities are undeniable.
No. 15: Miami Dolphins, Cam Newton (QB)
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This time last year the Dolphins front office was content in the knowledge that they had their newest franchise quarterback. His name was Chad Henne.
Now, a year down the track, he has performed horribly, and Miami must once again draft a signal caller to replace him.
After winning the BCA National Championship, Cam Newton reminds me of Tim Tebow—a great leader with good intangibles, a good powerful runner with the ball and an efficient passer.
Although he is unpolished, the success of Tebow and Michael Vick this season shows how dangerous and effective a player with Newton's skill set can be.
No. 16: Jacksonville Jaguars, Cameron Heyward (DT)
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The Jaguars need to improve their pass rush, especially at the interior of the defensive line.
They could also do with a player who can help stuff the run.
For these reasons, the best option for them is to pick a 3-technique defensive tackle.
The best available on the board is Cameron Heyward.
Although he has had a disappointing year, Heyward still has the physical attributes to be a dominant under tackle in the 4-3 scheme, and maybe even a right side defensive end.
He stands at 6'5", which is enough to play as a defensive end, and at 290 lbs could easily bulk up enough to be an under tackle.
He is quick enough and strong enough to split double teams and is one of the best run stuffers in the draft when playing well.
He is however, very inconsistent, which is the cause of his drop to the 16th pick of the first round.
No. 17: New England Patriots, Akeem Ayers (DE/OLB)
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The Patriots have been playing well of defense, but they need more dynamic playmakers to be consistently dominant against high-powered offenses.
With their lack of pure pass rushers, they should pick a rushing outside linebacker with their first pick.
Ayers is 6'4" tall and has long arms. He has a large array of moves to beat offensive tackles.
He is strong and very quick, and has the skill set to play as a middle linebacker as well as rush from the line as a defensive end.
This makes him perfect for the New England defense, which uses a lot of different looks.
Ayers' pass rushing abilities place him above Von Miller to become the first linebacker drafted.
No. 18: San Diego Chargers, Von Miller (OLB)
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The Chargers will probably want to trade up ahead of the Patriots to gain the services of Akeem Ayers.
However, if they stay still, they will try to draft another rushing outside linebacker to replace Shawne Merriman opposite Shaun Phillips.
Von Miller is the best linebacker in the draft, but is less dangerous than Ayers as an edge rusher.
Miller has the athleticism and the moves to deal damage to the quarterback but is undersized, even for a linebacker.
He does not have the strength to break away from the large offensive linemen of the NFL and has an inconsistent motor.
No. 19: New York Giants, Derek Sherrod (OT)
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The New York Giants need to improve the quality of their offensive line to give Eli Manning more time to pass.
Derek Sherrod is the second-best offensive tackle in the draft. He weighs over 300 lbs and is 6'6".
He is athletic enough to keep up with speed rushers and be a pulling lineman.
Sherrod is also a decent run blocker who plays with good technique and explosion.
His weakness lies in his lack of brute strength, which makes him vulnerable to power rushers and could limit his effectiveness as a run blocker at the NFL level.
No. 20: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Aldon Smith (DE)
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The Bucs have been very good this season, but they do need a good pass rusher at defensive end to take pressure off Gerald McCoy.
This would take their defense to the next level.
Smith is possibly the next Jevon Kearse. He is tall and weighs enough to line up at the line at 260 lbs, especially if he bulks up.
He is quick and elusive as a rusher, who can also bull rush effectively.
Smith also has a strong array of pass rushing moves and counter moves.
No. 21: Kansas City Chiefs, Jonathan Baldwin (WR)
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The Chiefs out-performed their wildest expectations this season, and will be looking to build on their success.
They need another top wide receiver to ease the load on Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe in the passing game.
Baldwin is a large target like Bowe. He weighs 230 lbs and is 6'5" tall.
However, he combines that with a reputed 40-yard dash time that will be below 4.40.
He almost always wins jump ball opportunities and has soft hands.
Baldwin's route running is not great, but his athletic package would be lethal in Kansas City's run-action passing game.
No. 22: Indianapolis Colts, Stephen Paea (DT)
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The Colts have been historically bad defending the inside run for the best part of the last decade.
In this draft they will finally deal to that by selecting Stephen Paea as their new under tackle.
Paea is the best run stuffer in the draft. He is possibly the strongest player ever to go to the scouting combine.
He lacks ideal defensive lineman height at only 6'1", but has a good technical background, an ability to beat double teams and a great work ethic.
Paea would stiffen the Colts run defense and provide them with more pressure up the middle of the offensive line.
Also, because he only picked football up in his last year of high school, he could develop into a truly elite defensive tackle.
No. 23: Philadelphia Eagles, Mike Pouncey (OG)
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The Philadephia Eagles surprised everyone with their performance this season.
Despite their success, the offensive line needs a major overhaul.
They struggled to open lanes for LeSean McCoy, which in the end made their team quite one-dimensional.
Mike Pouncey, the brother of standout rookie Markice Pouncey, is the best guard in the draft. At 320 lbs, he has the size to dominate at the line, and long arms.
Pouncey does not have the pass protection skills for a tackle, but he is a powerful road grader who can keep quarterbacks clean from penetration through the middle of the line.
He is fast enough to play as a pulling guard and blocks at the second level very well.
He could be moved to center after a few seasons.
No. 24: New Orleans Saints, Mark Ingram (RB)
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The Saints have had very inconsistent play from their running backs.
With Reggie Bush, Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas all injured for periods of the season, the Saints need to draft a running back to solidify the position.
The best running back by far available in the draft is Mark Ingram.
He is short at 5'10", and he has good weight for a feature back at 215 lbs.
He also runs a reputed 4.42 40-yard time. He gains good yards after contact, is agile and is a competent receiver.
He is poor at pass protection, but this is normal for college running back.
No. 25: Seattle Seahawks, Jurrell Casey (NT)
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The Seahawks have been terrible at defending the run this season, so they need a dominant run stuffer.
Because they run a 3-4 defense, it makes sense for them to draft a nose tackle.
Jurrell Casey has the body to play as a nose tackle. He weighs 315 lbs currently, but could easily gain 15 lbs without compromising his agility.
He plays a strength game, and is a powerful run stuffer and a dangerous bull rusher.
Casey also has wide hips, which is important for a 0-technique tackle.
This is a bit of a reach, and the Seahawks would be able to trade down into the second round to draft Casey.
No. 26: Green Bay Packers, Ryan Kerrigan (DE/OLB)
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The Packers have a strong team, which will be even better next season.
A position they could address is to find another quality pass rusher to play opposite Clay Matthews.
Casey Matthews is an option in a later round, but if Kerrigan does fall to them, they will have no hesitation in drafting him.
Ryan Kerrigan is a very gifted pass rusher. While having an average wingspan, he stands at 6'4" and weighs 267 lbs.
He is very strong, and can bull rush offensive linemen as well as beat them with his wide array of pass rush moves.
He has a non-stop motor, above-average agility and does not miss many tackles.
He is not that fast, but his rushing and tackling abilities make him a valuable player as a 3-4 outside linebacker.
No. 27: New York Jets, J.J. Watt (DE)
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The New York Jets have a great defense, but it relies too much on smoke and mirrors tricks from the coordinator.
They need more play makers on defense to improve it to the level of the 2000 Ravens.
One position which they need to address is defensive end. Ellis is aging and Pouha will be a nose tackle now that Kris Jenkins will retire.
J.J. Watt has the ideal dimensions for a 3-4 defensive end. He is 6'6" tall and weighs 292 lbs.
He has a non-stop motor and goes full-tilt all day. He has an explosive first step and plenty of strength to bull rush.
He is not a top flight run stuffer, and is not very refined as a pass rusher.
However, he is NFL-ready and would improve the Jets defense a lot.
No. 28: Baltimore Ravens, Jimmy Smith (CB)
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The Ravens have always had a good defense, but their secondary has been weak this year.
They may want to trade up to select one of the top three corner backs, but if they stay put, they should select Jimmy Smith from Colorado.
Smith is 6'2" and 210 lbs, and runs a 4.40 40-yard dash time.
He is a very able and physical run supporter and athleticism, body control and ball skills.
For the most part of his college career quarterbacks have avoided him.
He is tight in the hips, but he still plays man coverage very well, which is what the Ravens need.
Having Ed Reed in the secondary will make the transition to the NFL easier, too.
No. 29: Chicago Bears, Tyron Smith (OT)
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The Chicago Bears offensive line has been disappointing this season, especially in pass protection.
They need to address this in the draft and pick up a top-flight pass protector in the first round.
Tyron Smith is one of the best pass protectors in the draft. He may only weigh in at 285 lbs, but he has plenty of natural strength.
He stands at 6'5" and is by far the most athletic offensive lineman in the draft.
He has long arms, quick feet and plays with a low pad level.
He will need to bulk up to become an elite tackle in the NFL, but will be a starter from day one and be able to deal with the best pass rushers in his rookie season.
No. 30: Pittsburgh Steelers, Cameron Jordan (DE)
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The Steelers would have wanted to draft Mike Pouncey to play beside his brother, and may still trade up to secure his services.
If they stay where they are though, they will draft a new defensive end to play beside Ziggy Hood.
Cameron Jordan is well sized at 6'4" and 285 lbs. He also has a good array of pass rush moves and sheds blocks well.
He is explosive off the line, has surprising agility and is strong against the run.
He lacks top flight speed and quickness, but that would be covered by the quality of the Blitzburgh defense.
Jordan will be a developmental player and a possible replacement for Aaron Smith in the near future.
No. 31: Atlanta Falcons, Jeremy Beal (DE)
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The Falcons have a very strong overall team, but they need a draft a replacement for John Abraham soon.
Beal seems to be the answer at this point of the draft.
Beal is very athletic, though is undersized for a 4-3 defensive end at 6'3" and 267 lbs.
He is a speed rusher who has the agility to string moves together and the ability to contain the run on the outside.
He is a good tackler and has a non-stop motor.
His weakness is his strength, which could lead to him getting lost in the blocks of the bigger offensive tackles at the NFL level.
No. 32: New England Patriots, Allen Bailey (DE)
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The Patriots need to replace Richard Seymour a defensive end, and will look to finally do it with the selection of Bailey from Miami.
Bailey would combine with Ayers to give the Patriots a far better pass rush next season.
Allen Bailey has been a dominant pass rusher for the Miami Hurricanes.
While he lacks elite speed and struggles to get off blocks, he combines strength, speed and agility with a non-stop motor and great initial quickness and burst.
This package makes him a threat to any quarterback.
He could do with another 10 lbs on his frame to take him to 295 lbs, but once this happens, he could have a Seymour-like effect on the Pats defense.
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