Chicago Bears Vs. Green Bay Packers: 10 Considerations for 'Rust Or Rest' Debate
Sometimes in life, you are damned if you do and damned if you don't. In this case, football mirrors life, so no matter what the Bears decide to do on Sunday against the Packers, there will be critics arguing that it was the wrong thing.
Should the Bears rest their starters on Sunday to avoid injury, or should they go all out to beat a bitter rival?
A lot depends, of course, on whether the game actually means something to the Bears. That will be known prior to the game, as the Falcons and Saints results will be in before the Bears game starts.
But no matter what the Bears do, there will be people who will use the old "rust vs. rest" argument to support their position.
If the Bears decide to rest their starters, there will be many who fear that the team will not be ready to play in the playoffs. A first round bye means that if players don't play this Sunday, it will be three weeks without game time.
If the Bears do play their starters and—God forbid—someone gets hurt...well, you get the idea.
Let's explore this debate in greater detail, as we examine the ten main issues related to the question of how the Bears should treat Sunday's game.
Beating the Packers Will Knock Them Out of the Playoffs
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With a loss to the Bears on Sunday, Green Bay will be eliminated from the playoffs and that would be a good thing for the Bears. For one thing, the Packers are a very good team.
Yes, I realize we beat them in Week 3, but look at how they played against a couple of really good common opponents (and no, Detroit and Minnesota don't count). They soundly defeated a Giants team that almost killed Jay Cutler, and they almost beat a Patriots team that destroyed us and are acknowledged as the best team in the NFL. All this without Aaron Rodgers.
So yes, preventing the Packers from making the playoffs is huge for Chicago.
Perhaps Devin Hester said it best to ESPN.com. "The Packers are a great team and I don't want to continue facing them, so I'm hoping we can go out and eliminate another good team," Devin Hester said. "I'd hate to see them three times in one year."
It's All About the Rivalry
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The Bears and Packers have a rivalry that dates back further than you or I, and let's face it, Bears and Packers fans hate each other.
Now, that is not necessarily a viable reason to risk the health of your starters, at least not by itself. But I'm sure it factors into the minds of Lovie Smith and the players. They want to beat Green Bay, and as fans, we want them to beat the Packers.
Of course, the decision is not so simple that bragging rights alone should help decide what to do on Sunday. Still, this may be the Super Bowl for Green Bay, while we want to play in the real one.
the Injury Factor
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An injury to a key Bears player would hurt the team's chances in the playoffs. An injury to Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Julius Peppers, Devin Hester, or Matt Forte to name a few, would be awful.
But imagine if the injury was to QB Jay Cutler. The Bears have backups at those other positions. The backups are certainly not as good, but they are better than the backups at QB. In essence, we don't really have a backup at the QB position.
If Cutler goes down, the season is over—plain and simple. The Bears will not win a playoff game with Todd Collins or Caleb Haney. Plus, the man has already been concussed this season.
Now, Cutler is tough, but if you don't think the Packers will be out for blood and would love to knock our QB out, then you don't understand football.
Meanwhile, you can't play scared. You can't tell Cutler to go out there and play at half-speed, that just isn't the way it works. In fact, playing that way is actually more dangerous in the NFL.
One of the keys to the Bears' success this year has been how healthy they have been. Is it tempting fate to try and eek out a number one seed or to avoid rust by playing Cutler?
No way I let him play the entire game if it's my decision. Sure, he can get hurt on one play, but the most I'd let him go would be the first half, no matter what's at stake.
If that makes me a sissy, then you're entitled to that opinion, but I say that sometimes discretion is the better part of valor.
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a Chance To Go Undefeated in the NFC North
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Now I've heard this argument and let me tell you, it would carry absolutely zero weight with me if I was the coach. Would it be cool to be the first team to go undefeated in the NFC North since the divisional realignment in 2002? Sure. But not cool enough for it to matter in the decision.
With a win over the Packers on Sunday, the Bears would sweep the division for the first time in a full 16 game season. The only other times the Bears did this were in '85 and '87, and the strike cancelled one of the games and the schedule was only 14 games.
It would be a nice feat, but not a show-stopper.
a Slim Chance at the Number One Seed
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I call it a "slim chance" because both New Orleans and Atlanta would have to lose for the Bears to be in position to get the number one seed, which would guarantee them home field throughout the playoffs.
Now, the Saints play a Tampa Bay team fighting for its playoff life, but the Falcons have Carolina and it's difficult to imagine Atlanta losing to the Panthers, though stranger things have happened. Who figured Minnesota would beat the Eagles?
Still, the problem with this situation is the Bears won't know if the game has meaning until game time when the other teams finish play. So you really need to do your game plan, if you're the Bears, with the understanding that you are either going for it or resting your starters upfront.
I mean, it's not that simple to say to Jay Cutler one minute prior to kickoff that Todd Collins is starting the game. Other personnel changes would be difficult too when the game plan is counting on certain players being in the game.
No, it doesn't work that way, and it seems the Bears will go into the game with the idea that they will go full bore in an effort to beat the Packers. However, let's hope that if the game does prove meaningless for Chicago, that they pull Cutler out early.
Even if the number one seed is at stake, I'm not sure I would take the chance at risking injury just to get another home game. To me, the main goal was to get the first round bye and anything else is gravy; and gravy isn't worth the risk, in my opinion.
Are the Bears Truly Better at Home?
6 of 10
Look, I understand that home teams win more than road teams in every major professional sport. I get that. So how in the world can I even ask this question?
Well, read what Brian Urlacher had to say, courtesy of Chicago Breaking Sports.
"I don't know about the beat-up part, but the footing at Soldier Field has been horrible," Pro Bowl linebacker Brian Urlacher said Thursday at Halas Hall. "We've all seen that. You watch us on film. Our D-line slipped. It's hard. We're a fast team. I think when you get us on a (Soldier Field) surface like that, it kind of takes a little bit of our speed. Health-wise, I think we're OK. We're playing fast from that aspect, It's just that the field has been so bad that we haven't been able to do what we normally do."
So much for that overblown "Bears weather" crap. Think about what Urlacher is saying: The defense plays better on surfaces other than the garbage turf at Soldier Field.
Recognizing this, is it really worth risking the health of your team to get a number one seed that is unlikely in the first place and potentially harmful?
Now, Urlacher did point to the fans as a positive point.
"We still have our crowd. I think that's a good thing," said Urlacher of the home field advantage in the playoffs.
But we're talking risk vs. reward here. The Bears are 5-3 at home but 6-1 on the road this season. Sure, the road wins included Carolina, Buffalo and Detroit, but the Bears lost at home to Seattle and Washington and got absolutely annihilated by New England in the slop.
Will the Bears Be Rusty If They Rest?
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So the Bears appear to be starting their entire team on Sunday. Fine. But how long should they play and if they do take out some guys, like Cutler hopefully, will it negatively affect them in the playoffs?
I feel that as long as the starters go at least one half, they should be fine, even if that means sitting an extra week for the first round bye. Now, if they had decided not to start their key players, perhaps the rust argument would carry more weight.
Meanwhile, what happened the previous times that Lovie Smith rested his starters?
The Bears lost to Carolina in the 2005 playoffs despite beating them during the season, following Lovie resting his starters in the last game of the season.
But in 2006, the Bears defeated Seattle and yes, Lovie again had rested his starters in the final game. So does it really matter?
No, it really should not matter. This is not the preseason and players don't need the reps to learn the system and get used to playing together as a team.
a Couple of Season Marks On the Line
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Again, this kind of stuff doesn't rank very high under the "team" concept, but it may be important to the individual players involved.
Forte needs 22 rushing yards to reach 1,000 on the season, and while that isn't quite the standard it used to be in a shorter season, it is still a goal. Also, with 13 receiving yards, Forte will join Walter Payton as the only Bear to achieve 1,000 rushing and 500 receiving yards in a season.
Johnny Knox needs just 40 yards to become the first Bears' receiver to reach 1,000 yards since Marty Booker in 2002.
Meanwhile, who would have guessed that Julius Peppers would have single-digit sack totals? I'm sure he'd love to get two on Sunday to reach 10 on the season. Doubtful, but possible. After disappearing last week against the Jets, it would be nice to see Peppers make some noise.
a Chance for the Defense To Redeem Itself
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The Bears defense did not turn in a good performance against the Jets, surrendering nearly 400 yards and 43 points in the win. In fact, over the last month, the Bears defense has had two outings in which they didn’t force any turnovers after generating nine takeaways in the four games immediately following the bye.
It has to be a cause for concern, even if the Bears aren't saying so publicly. Even the vaunted run defense has not been in tact, having given up more than 100 yards rushing in five consecutive games.
By playing the defensive unit on Sunday, the Bears' D can work on fixing some of the things that have been going wrong. If they get positive results, it will help get their confidence back to a high level going into the playoffs.
Maintaining Momentum
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The Bears want to maintain their conditioning, and three weeks off without playing would not do that. Plus, the offensive line is jelling and playing better than it was earlier in the season, so they'd like to keep that going.
Plus, the offense still has work to do, improving on its third down conversions and improving Jay Cutler's timing with the receivers. In short, the Bears do not want to impede the momentum it has built.
ESPNChicago had this from Cutler, "We don't really want to take a step back as a team or as an offense the way we have played the last couple games," Cutler said. "We're kind of putting things together; we want to keep that going."
They also had this from Lovie Smith, "We want to keep it going. We don't want to take a step back...We want to go into the playoffs on a high as much as anything."
So much for what I think, the coach has spoken.
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