MLB Predictions: Power Ranking the Top 50 Players for 2011
With about only three months before the first regular season game, the time for baseball writers/bloggers to make their predictions about the 2011 MLB season is beginning to draw near. There are a lot of questions that will be answered in the 2011 season, such as: have the Phillies created a dynasty, can the Yankees rebound after losing out on big players this winter, and can Joey Votto carry the Reds back into the playoffs?
When making predictions for an upcoming season there are three important factors that I weigh into my decision making.
First, the stats; sabermetrics is an unbelievable tool and, with the right analysis, can really give you some unprecedented insight.
Second, the gut; sometimes you have to look past stats and trends and go with the gut feeling. Numbers are very helpful, but they can only take us so far - don't underestimate your gut feelings.
Third, and finally, luck; anything can happen - from a sore elbow finally requiring surgery to a player hurting his leg trying to tie a shoelace...some things cannot be foreseen.
Without further ado here is a look at, what I believe, will be the 50 best players fore the entirety of the 2011 season along with a speculation as what some of their year end stats may look like...
50. Buster Posey
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Starting our list, at number 50, is Buster Posey. Posey had a fantastic campaign his rookie season (in fact, it can't get much better then leading your team to winning the World Series). I expect Posey to be solid again this year, with perhaps a bit of the 'sophomore slump' here and there.
The big mystery is about Posey's HR to fly ball Ratio (HR/F); this number was drastically higher in the second half of the season then the first half (18% to 8%) so maintaining that level may be hard.
Also, Posey has non-statistical value in his ability to lead the excellent SF Giants' pitchers through his pitch-calling.
Expectations: .290 BA, .350 OBP, 18 HR
49. Tsuyoshi Nishioka
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Tsuyoshi Nishioka is the Japanese import recently signed by the Minnesota Twins. Nishioka is a young, switch hitting middle-infielder that handles the bat really well (he hit .346 last season). With good speed and an excellent contact rate, he could be the missing piece at the top of the Twins' lineup.
I expect him to steal a few bases, hit above .300, and score a lot of runs; I think he will figure out the MLB pitchers before they can figure him out.
Expectations: .315 BA, .370 OBP
48. Mike Stanton
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The Young Marlins' outfielder has all the tools necessary to become a star in this league and, although I don't think this will be his breakout year, he should put up some excellent numbers nonetheless.
With a good eye and unbelievable power, Stanton is a hitter to be feared. Despite needing to raise his contact percent in order to get to the next level, at 22 years of age he has a lot more maturing and developing to do. This guy seems destined to be a star in a few years.
Expectations: 30 HR, 100 RBI, .260 BA
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47. Max Scherzer
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After a demotion early in the 2010 season, Scherzer came back and finished the year really strong by posting a 2.39 ERA in the second half of the season. I expect Scherzer to continue his success from late last season and think he will post a fine campaign in 2011; at 26 years of age, and the ability to strike hitters out, he could be an ace in the making.
Expectations: 200+ Ks, 1.17 WHIP, 3.50 ERA
46. Jose Reyes
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If he can stay healthy, Jose Reyes can be one of the best leadoff hitters in the game...but can he stay healthy? I'm betting that Reyes will be a great player this year if for no other reason then because he is on his contract year.
It's time for Reyes to get his big contract and, if he can stay healthy and steal bases, some team will give it to him. With all that on the line, I'm betting Reyes will have a great season this year.
Expectations: .290 BA, .345 OBP, 30+ SB
45. Mat Latos
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Mat Latos pitched fantastically well in 2010 and I fully expect him to have another great year in 2011. Although he seemed to tire at the end of the season last year, he is still young and developing so he should only be getting stronger as his body matures.
With Adrian Gonzales gone he may not get as many wins, but his ERA and WHIP should keep him in the realm of legitimate aces.
Expectations: 13 Wins, 1.15 WHIP, 3.35 ERA
44. Nelson Cruz
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Nelson Cruz was able to hit 33 HRs in 2010 despite a nagging hamstring issue all season. If he gets healthy is the 40 homerun mark possible? I think so.
In the small, hitters park in Texas with his kind of power, it's hard to think he's not going to put up some big numbers. At age 30, Cruz is right in the heart of his career and is poised to continue his high level of offensive production.
Expectations: .285 BA, 100 RBI, 34+ HR
43. Zack Greinke
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The newly acquired Brewer is set to make his National League debut in April and without the DH, Greinke's numbers could become even better than before. For Greinke his success hinders on his focus; if you look at his first half numbers versus his second half numbers from 2010, we can see the entire story (higher ERA, higher WHIP, less Ks, fewer IP, and a tremendous decrease in command in the second half when compared to the first).
He's got the stuff to be dominant, but can he keep himself focused and on track for an entire season?
Expectations: 3.30 ERA, 200+ Ks, 1.15 WHIP
42. Jason Heyward
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Jason Heyward, much like Buster Posey, had an excellent rookie season and I think we can all see him building off that success. His 2010 trends show an increase in ground balls but also an increase in contact percent; this should indicate a decrease in homeruns but an increase in batting average.
With an excellent eye, good speed, and some power in his bat Heyward, at the young age of 21, is already a solid middle-of-the-order hitter. 2011 will be another step toward superstardom for Heyward.
Expectations: .295 BA, .395 OBP, 20 HR,
41. Neftali Feliz
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The young closer for the Texas Rangers had an amazing season in 2010 accumulating 38 saves while posting a 1.12 WHIP. He pitches in Texas so his ERA may be inflated a bit because of the small ballpark but his ability to dominate left-handed hitters is unbelievable and drives his numbers down (they hit .127 against him in 2010).
2010 shows he is meant to be a closer and with his electric stuff he will continue to close the door for the Rangers in 2011.
Expectations: 3.30 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 35 Saves
40. Brian Wilson
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Fear the beard. Brian Wilson comes in at number 40 on my list and for good reason. The SF Giants' closer had a career year last season by getting 48 saves while posting a low 1.81 ERA.
His second half stats in 2010 show just how clutch he is: down the stretch Wilson had a 1.60 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP while getting 26 saves. Wilson got a lot of 4+ out saves in 2010 so let's keep an eye on his fatigue/health in the 2011 campaign. But, if healthy, he is a tough pitcher to face in the last inning of the game for any team.
Expectations: 2.75 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 38 Saves
39. Victor Martinez
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Victor Martinez is a reliable .300 hitter who is the owner of a pure and natural swing. The switch hitting catcher/first baseman should put up another solid year this year season. Also, an increase in his flyball ratio suggests a possible increase in homerun totals; of course, it could also mean a drop in AVG.
He's slowly starting to age and his transition to first base seems inevitable, but 2011 should still be another good year for Martinez.
Expectations: .300 BA, .355 OBP, 18 HR
38. Heath Bell
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Even at 33 years old, Heath Bell showed the MLB community that he has some nasty stuff to throw at you in the 9th inning. The Padres closer finished the 2010 season with just a 1.93 ERA.
His home/away stats show he is not a product of the bigger ballpark in San Diego, but rather he just has the talent to be a dominant closer in the league. Similar to Latos facing less wins, he may not get as many opportunities with Adrian Gonzalez gone. Nonetheless, his stats should be impressive in 2011.
Expectations: 2.50 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 28 Saves
37. Andrew McCutchen
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The young McCutchen showed off his talents in 2010 by posting 16 homeruns with 33 stolen bases and a .286 average. In the second half of the season McCutchen's contact percentage rose and so a .300 batting average seems possible.
Forget the sophomore slump with this guy; he's got a good eye and if he gets on base he will cause a lot of problems for pitchers and catchers.
Expectations: .285 BA, 30+ SB,
36. Cliff Lee
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Although 2008 was an amazing season for Lee, I believe the 2010 season was the best season of Cliff Lee's career. With that said however, I haven't bought into the Cliff Lee hype as much as other people - he's a good pitcher, no question, but is he $100 million good? I don't think so. He's had a few good years recently, but his performance in the 2010 World Series and his career WHIP of 1.25 suggests he is far from invincible.
In the hitter friendly ballpark of Citizen's Bank Lee's numbers should become inflated a bit but with a potent offense behind him he'll still accumulate a lot of wins.
The 2010 season also shows cause for concern - 5 of the last 6 season Lee has thrown over 200 innings and the rise of his ERA in the second half of 2010 may suggest fatigue from all those IPs (his ERA went from 2.34 to 3.98).
With all that said, however, Lee is still a very talented pitcher and certainly worth of appearing on this list (just, in my opinion, not as high as others may have suspected).
Expectations: 15 Wins, 180 Ks, 3.55 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
35. Andre Ethier
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Andre Ethier comes in at number 35 on my list. Ethier is a solid offensive player, but the real question for him is can he figure out how to hit left-handed pitching (he hit a poor .233 against them in 2010).
Should Ethier figure out left-handers I think a 30+ HR season with 120 RBIs and .300 BA is not out of the question.
Expectations: .285 BA, .360 OBP, 25+ HR, 100 RBI
34. David Wright
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David Wright still has elite skills but his tendency to chase bad pitches really opened a big weakness in his game in 2010. Wright's OBP, from 2009-2010, dropped from .391 to .358 - so will Wright right the ship or is his decreased eye and contact percentage the new players he is becoming.
On the upside, 2010 showed his 10 homeruns in 2009 was a fluke and he still has legitimate power; and with substantial speed Wright still posses a threat to all pitchers facing the Mets' third baseman.
Expectations: .280 BA, 30 HR, 100+ RBI, 25 SB, 100 R
33. Cole Hamels
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One of my favorite young pitchers in the MLB Cole Hamels makes an appearance on the list at the thirty-third position. Hamels had an excellent season in 2010 and particularly shined in the second half of the year when he posted a 2.18 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP. Although he only had a 12-11 record in 2010, 8 of those 11 loses were suffered with the Phillies scoring only 2 runs or less).
Hamels' command and ground ball ratio are all on the rise, which gives even more reason to suspect he is on track to becoming a special pitcher. In my opinion, he should be the number 2 pitcher in the Phillies' rotation in 2011.
He's got one of the best change-ups in the game and I think he's a very special talent. At only 27 years old, I think we are going to see a lot of special things to come from him.
Expectations: 17 Wins, 3.33 ERA, 200+ Ks, 1.12 WHIP
32. Chase Utley
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Chase Utley comes in at number 32 on my list. Although he had thumb surgery in the middle of the 2010 season, his successful comeback in September shows he is fine.
If he stays healthy, Utley should be a solid offensive force for the Phillies.
Expectations: .280 BA, .370 OBP, 27 HR, 100 R, 100 RBI
31. Mark Teixeira
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Mark Teixeira had an interesting 2010; he had 33 HR but only a .256 BA. This will be an interesting year as it may set a new standard for the numbers we can expect Teixeira to post.
With his solid second half rebound (.271 BA, 20 HR, 55 RBI, .369 OBP) I think we can assume the first half of the season was a fluke and Mark Teixeira will still do what Mark Teixeira does offensively: hit for a good average, get a high OBP, hit HR, and drive runners in.
Expectations: .280 BA, .380 OBP, 35 HR, 110+ RBI, 100 R
30. Robinson Cano
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Robinson Cano's 2010 season was a great season, probably a career year - but can he repeat? I don't see it happening. Still a solid player but the second half of 2010 shows the real Cano (.295 BA, .362 OBP, 13 HR, 54 RBI).
Expectations: .300 BA, .360 OBP, 20 HR, and 100 RBI.
29. Ryan Braun
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Ryan Braun, the Brewers outfielder, is next on the list. A lot of people are high on him but, much like Cliff Lee, I don't value him as highly.
Braun is a great talent, clearly, but he's on a track that is steering him away from being one of the great power hitters in the MLB. I see a lot of bad trends in his stats that help support this: for example, since 2007 his HRs per season have steadily declined (43, 37, 32, 25) and his ground ball ratio continues to rise - in 2007 Braun hit 39% ground balls and in 2010 he hit 48%.
Also with Prince Fielders on a contract year - and thus bound to perform well - Braun will likely get more opportunities to perform well at the plate as well.
Expectations: .290 BA, .350 OBP, 25 HR, 100 R, 100 RBI
28. Dan Haren
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Dan Haren had an uncharacteristically poor year in 2010 but I'm taking that as an anomaly as I believe he will return to form in 2011. He suffered with command in 2010 but, by the end of the season, showed he figured it all out.
Expectations: 16 Wins, 200+ Ks, 3.45 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
27. Dustin Pedroia
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Pedroia's season was cut short because of a foot injury but, if he's healthy, not many players are better, or hustle more, then he does.
With a very powerful Red Sox lineup in 2011 (given the addition of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez) Pedroia should get a lot of opportunities to score runs.
Expectations: .300 BA, .360 OBP, 100 R, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 20 SB
26. Troy Tulowitzki
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Troy Tulowitzki, in my opinion, is a high risk-high reward player (I don't think the extension the Rockies gave him will end up being a good investment for that organization...too much risk here).
If he is healthy, he is a great player but can he stay healthy?
Also, without his monster September, which I think we can agree is not likely for him to repeat, what would his numbers be like? (remember he hit 15 HR and 40 RBI in that month alone).
For me, I think Tulo will post a .280 BA, 90 RBI, with 25 HR - easy choice for this list but I still believe his extension will come back to haunt the Rockies.
Expectations: .280 BA, .360 OBP, 25 HR, 90 RBI
25. Joakim Soria
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In my opinion, Joakin Soria - who comes in at number 25 on my list - is the best closer in baseball. He doesn't get the attention he deserves because he is on the Royals, but when he is on the mound he is as close to unhittable as a pitcher can get.
He's got great command, strikes out a ton of hitters - and when he doesn't he usually gets them to hit a ground ball - and strands runners like almost no one else.
Soria boasts a career WHIP of under 1.00 and a career HR/9 Inning rate of 0.6.
If he was on a better team 50 saves would not be unreasonable to predict.
Expectations: 38 Saves, 2.50 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
24. Clayton Kershaw
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Clayton Kershaw, the left-handed starting pitcher for the Dodgers, is next on our list. For Kershaw to be successful it's all about control. He struggled with it early on in the season but improved in the second half and showed us what he really could do (2.79 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, with almost 9 strikeouts per 9 innings in the second half of the season).
If he gets some good run support and continues to improve his command, I think he could be a 20 games winner in 2011.
Expectations: 17 Wins, 200+ Ks, 3.15 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
23. Ryan Zimmerman
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A fantastic talent that continues to develop, Ryan Zimmerman is 23 on my list. Zimmerman lost the protection of Adam Dunn this offseason but gained the protection of Jayson Werth so he should still be protected in the lineup.
Zimmerman is also really seeing the ball well as his walks percentage has gone up significantly over the past few seasons - the mark of a great hitter. The only real issue Zimmerman faces is his ground ball percentage; it's still a little too high for a true slugger.
Expectations: 30 HR, 100 RBI, .300 BA, and a .380 OBP
22. Evan Longoria
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I love watching Longoria play because I love to see him develop; for example he has gotten much batter handling the bat and, as such, his contact rate has increased - and with an increased contact rate comes a higher BA.
From 2008-2010 his BA has been, respectively, .272, .281, .294. Could this be the year he breaks .300?
Expectations: 30 HR, .295 BA, 100 RBI, 100 R
21. Kevin Youkilis
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2010 was an atypical year from Youkilis because he missed time due to a thumb injury. Is he fully healthy? I think so.
As with Pedroia, he will only benefit from the addition of Crawford and Gonzales to the middle of the order.
Expectations: .315 BA, .400 OBP, 30 HR, 95 RBI, 100 R
20. Joe Mauer
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Number 20 on my list is Twins catcher Joe Mauer. Last year I would have put him in a better rank but I think we found that his 28 HRs in 2009 is an outlier.
Nonetheless, anyone with his talent to put the ball is play is going to be an asset to any team.
Expectations: .330+ BA, .410+ OBP, 90 R, 10 HR, 90 RBI
19. Ryan Howard
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Ryan Howard is another player who raises an alarm for me - similar to Ryan Braun. Obviously Howard is a great player but since 2008 his HRs per season have been dropping as well as his walk ratio. On the upside though, Howard has started to learn how to hit left-handed pitchers (in 2010 he posted a .264 BA while in 2009 he only posted a .207 BA against them).
Unlike Braun however, Howard is on a more potent offense and so the 'cracks' in his armor will be harder to notice.
Expectations: 30 HR, 100 RBI, .270 BA, .340 OBP
18. Shin-Soo Choo
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I'm a big Shin-Soo Choo fan because I think he does everything well; from offense to defense he is above average all around. I also think he could hit more HRs then he does, but a low fly ball rate will stop him from becoming a true slugger.
Expectations: .300 BA, .400 OBP, 20 HR, 100 RBI, 20 SB, and 80 R
17. Justin Morneau
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Justin Morneau is a great player but he may not be as effective as his position on this list would suggest. I believe he'll be okay, but he did suffer a severe concussion in 2010 and there is no way to know how that will effect his game. If he's back to normal, however, he is one of the best first basemen in the game.
Expectations: 27 HR, .300+ BA, .390 OBP, 100 RBI
16. Adam Wainwright
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Adam Wainwright had a fantastic season in 2010 (2.42 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) that can be largely attributed to his ability to get left-handed hitters out; in 2009 LH hit .275 but in 2010 they hit .226. Can he sustain that? It'll be the key to his success...
Also, Wainwright has pitched 230+ Inning in each of the last two seasons so there could be some concern about the durability of his arm this year.
Expectations: 18 Wins, 190 Ks, .280 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
15. Prince Fielder
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Contact year = big production in 2011.
Expectations: 40 HR, 120 RBI, .275 BA, .390 OBP
14. Jon Lester
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Jon Lester, the starting pitcher for the Boston Red Sox, is next on the list. A superb pitcher, don't be surprised if he wins a Cy Young award - perhaps in 2011...
With his ground ball ratio continuing to rise and right-handed hitters BA continuing to fall, Lester is maturing into one of the best pitchers in baseball. The only concern with him was his poor second half in 2010. Did he lose focus? Was he hurt or tired?
Expectations: 20 Wins, 3.15 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, with 220+ Ks.
13. Matt Holliday
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Matt Holliday is no longer a five tool player; he doesn't have the speed anymore to be considered a real threat on the base paths but he's a four tool player instead - and an extremely good one at that. An excellent eye combined with great power and patience makes for a very dangerous hitter; add all that to hitting behind Albert Pujols and you have a formula for him to put up some big numbers.
Expectations: 100 R, 28 HR, 115+ RBI, .315 BA, .390 OBP
12. Alex Rodriguez
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Alex Rodriguez comes in next on my list, obtaining the twelfth position. A-Rod was plagued by a few injuries in 2010 but, if he can stay healthy, there are only a few who are better.
There is a reason to start becoming concerned as his patience at the plate has become worse and the number of ground balls he hits is on the rise but he will still produce excellent numbers for now; especially in the smaller Yankee stadium.
Expectations: 80 R, 30+ HR, 110 RBI, .275 BA, .360 OBP
11. Roy Halladay
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The definition of an ace, Roy Halladay always gives a great outing when he gets the ball on the mound; and with a great Phillies' offense behind him 20 game-winner is always a possibility.
Expectations: 18 Wins, 190 Ks, 2.75 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
10. Josh Hamilton
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Can he stay healthy? Josh Hamilton obviously has the talent to be one of the best players in baseball but can he put together a full season without a major injury? Not sure.
Nonetheless, when Hamilton is on the field he is going to give you some amazing at-bats. With natural talent like his, pitchers have to be afraid when they see him coming to the plate.
Expectations: .315 BA, 27 HR, 100 RBI, .355 OBP
9. Hanley Ramriez
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At number nine on my list is Florida Marlins' shortstop Hanley Ramriez. Ramirez is an exceptional talent but his status as a true power-hitter may be dwindling as his batted balls are becoming ground balls as every season passes and his HR total has dropped every season since 2008.
Even with that Hanley is a five tool player that can carry a team.
Expectations: .300 BA, 30 SB, .380 OBP, 18 HR, 75 RBI
8. Carlos Gonzalez
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Carlos Gonzalez, number 8 on my list, had a fantastic year in 2010 but can we expect a repeat? In terms of power, yes, but in regards to his BA, no - he's not hitting .336 again. The increase in HR/Fly Ball ratio supports that his power is here to stay.
Expectations: 100 R, 30+ HR, 100+ RBI, 20 SB, .300 BA, .355 OBP
7. Felix Hernandez
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Number seven is King Felix who, somehow, managed to surpass his fantastic 2009 season in 2010. The only alarm with Hernandez is his IP - 489 in the last two seasons. Otherwise there is not much to add except that he is dominant, plan and simple.
Expectations: 15 Wins, 230+ Ks, 2.75 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
6. Carl Crawford
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As I wrote in a previous article the Red Sox were best off signing Crawford over Werth; and they did. This was a great signing for them and I think he'll do very well at Fenway. A fantastic talent with speed, power, and a great contact rate, Crawford is a phenomenal player. Look for him to have a huge year with the Red Sox's in 2011.
Expectations: .300 BA, .350 OBP, 50 SB, 25 HR, 100 R
5. Joey Votto
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After an amazing season last year, Joey Votto has become one of the most elite players in baseball and all the stats and trends suggest he isn't going anywhere. With an increase in walks and power he seems poised to compete for the MVP award every year.
Expectations: .320 BA, .400+ OBP, 30+ HR, 100 R, 100+ RBI
4. Tim Lincecum
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The Freak, coming in at number 4, didn't have the most impressive season of his career but he fixed his command (and even added another dominant pitch, which is a scary thought) by the end of the season and guided his team to winning the World Series. This may have been the down year critics thought was coming - except it really wasn't that 'down'.
2011, I think, will be a big year for Lincecum as I believe he will return to form and perhaps pitch better then we have ever seen him pitch. He let someone else win the Cy Young in 2010 - after he won it in 2008 and 2009 - so I'm sure he will want it back. Cy Young winner in 2011.
Expectations: 20 Wins, 230 Ks, 2.70 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
3. Adrian Gonzalez
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The third best player in 2011, I think, will be Adrian Gonzalez. The combination of power, patience, and a contract year = watch out! Plus he is on the Red Sox now and thus has a lot more protection. If he could hit 35+ HR in San Diego's huge park with no protection what is he going to do with the Red Sox?
Expectations: .310 BA, .410 OBP, 40+ HR, 115 RBI, 100 R
2. Miguel Cabrera
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Number 2 is Miguel Cabrera. Since Cabrera broke into the league at a very young age it feels like he is old, but he isn't; he's only 28. For the production he puts up it's scary to think he may get even better. A better walk ratio and an increase in fly balls may be the formula for even more HRs to come.
Expectations: 110 R, 50 HR, 140 RBI, .335 BA, .410 OBP
1. Albert Pujols
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And the number 1 player in the 2011 season will be...who else...The Machine; Albert Pujols. Pujols has to be the favorite as the best player every season but the fact that he is in a contract year means there really is 0 competition. I hope the Cardinals resign him because I'd love to see him stay with one team his whole career, but, if he hits the open market, he will get offered more money than A-Rod; and the Cardinals just cannot match that.
Expectations: 110+ R, 50+ HR, 130+ RBI, .340 BA, .445 OBP
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