Philadelphia Phillies: 10 Reasons Why They Might Not Win The NL East
Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels. This is an amazing starting rotation, but is it enough to win the NL East?
The Phillies are the talk of baseball, and they are projected to win the NL East, but is it really a guarantee?
The answer is no.
As a Phillies fan, I consider myself unbiased on the subject, and I have picked up on a lot of their struggles during last season (many of which have not been addressed).
I know many of you out there want to hear about how the Phils won't be the best team ever since there are 29 other teams in the MLB, so here they are, the 10 reasons that the Phillies might not win the NL East (in no specific order).
Aging/Injuries
1 of 10
The Phillies are not a young team anymore. Many people still think of players like Utley, Rollins and Victorino as young guns who are on the rise and are about 26—28. However, the truth of the matter is that they are all in their thirties, as are Howard, Polanco, Ruiz and most of the bench.
Thirties may not seem too old (because it's still a productive age), but they showed their age last year with all of their injuries. Utley used to be incredibly tough, now he hasn't been healthy much over the last two seasons. Rollins started every game for the Phils a few years ago when he won the MVP, but he missed about half of the season in 2010, posting only a .243 BA and eight HR, pitiful numbers for the MVP, Gold Glove and Silver Slugger winner of 2007.
Just about everyone in the Phillies' eight man lineup got seriously hurt last season with the exception of Jayson Werth, who is now on the Nationals. With so many injuries on the team over the last two years, their production has slumped off, and although injuries hurt every team, Phillies players are becoming prone to being hurt.
Without an offense, the Phils won't be able to win many games, and if their lineup continues to be as unstable as it has been, then they will not be the power house that everyone thinks they will be, and if you think that their pitching will be enough, look at their struggles against the Giants in this year's NLCS.
Bullpen Issues
2 of 10
Let’s face it, the Phillies' bullpen is pathetic. They don’t have the reliable man to get them out of jams that they need, and they are excessively righty—oriented. Many people are saying “The Phillies don’t need a good bullpen with their starters," but without the strong backbone of a bullpen the Phillies will lose. Starters cannot pitch 250—300 innings a year because they will wear down, and if their bullpen continues to meltdown in the later innings, then they will not be nearly as good as everyone expects them to be.
Looking at the Phils' bullpen, one fact stands out: they do not have many left—handed relievers. The Phils only have three lefties, Antonio Bastardo, Mike Zagurski and Sergio Escalona. Bastardo proved himself a decent long reliever last season, but Escalona and Zagurski have not truly proven their worth yet. Last year, the Phillies could rely on lefty J.C. Romero, but since he has left they are even more righty—oriented.
Without a good lefty to come in during big situations against good lefty bats, the Phils are sure to falter in the later innings. The bullpen was a vital part of the Phillies' World Series run in 2008, and without it, they would not have won it all.
Closer Issues
3 of 10
The Phillies' issues with their closers are so bad that they deserve their own slide.
Brad Lidge is the Phils' main guy, but in the last two years he has blown 16 saves and his strikeouts per nine innings have been the lowest of his career. Lidge also allows a lot of walks, and does not hold anyone on, so when he walks a guy, the runner will be on second after the next pitch.
Lidge looked like he may have had a comeback in 2010 when you look at his stats, but stats can lie. Lidge only blew five saves, but he was up and down in dramatic swings. He could go from striking out the side in the ninth inning to walking four batters and allowing three runs to blow a save, but not pick up the loss. The stats are lying about Lidge. If you watch him pitch, it is always touch—and—go; it is almost never an easy one—two—three inning. As a Phillies fan, you can feel the anxiety when Lidge comes in. This is not the feeling you want from your closer.
Ryan Madson was the backup plan, but he faltered as much as Lidge when asked to step in. It seemed like the Phillies closer role was cursed when these guys were struggling at the same time. If it is next season, the Phillies will not be a playoff team.
Loss of First Base Coach Davy Lopes
4 of 10
This may not seem like a huge loss, but it is.
It’s true that some first base coaches do not make big impacts since the players generally know what to do, but Lopes is the exception. There were many instances when players rounding second would look back at Lopes instead of his replacement, third base coach Sam Perlozzo because Lopes was much more knowledgeable.
Davy Lopes completely controlled the Phillies running game, and he played a big role in the Phillies successful stolen base percentage. Lopes was always seen with a stopwatch in his hand so that he could time the pitcher’s time it takes to throw to the plate. Lopes would have in—depth scouting reports on the catchers to time how long it takes to throw to second. Lopes also knew how long it takes for each player to make it to second or third safely. With all of this knowledge in his head, it wasn’t so much guesswork for Lopes as it was science.
Clearly letting Lopes go was a huge mistake for the Phils.
Loss of Jayson Werth
5 of 10
We all know about Jayson Werth signing with the Nationals by now, and of course it is an obvious reason, but it has to be on here.
Werth was a key part of the lineup in the fifth spot. He was the reason that many pitchers could not pitch around Ryan Howard. His power was demonstrated by his fifth—deck home run in Toronto. Werth also was a 30 HR 100 RBI guy and an All-Star, not to mention his spectacular running game when he got on.
Werth is now to be replaced by Ross Gload and Ben Francisco, neither of whom can compare to Werth defensively or on the base paths. Many coaches have said that Werth should have been a Gold Glover, and he has great ability to track down balls, cut off doubles, and dive into the stands for foul balls.
We all know Werth is a great hitter, and Francisco and Gload cannot replace him, so there will be a big drop off offensively this year. The five hole will be a big hole to fill for the Phils, and Werth will be a big loss for them.
Failure To Play Small-Ball
6 of 10
The Phillies have been known as a power team, but they will have to change that soon. With an aging lineup that cannot be expected to hit as many long balls as they did in 2008, the Phillies will have to improve their small ball skills.
When the Phillies have a man on first or second with no outs, they almost NEVER bunt or just try to move the runner up. The Phillies try to go for all—or—nothing innings and just try to blast home runs, but that won’t work anymore since they are all in their thirties except for Francisco and Brown, who aren’t exactly power hitters.
The Phillies also need to improve their pitiful batting average with runners in scoring position. The Phils are hitting near last in that category at a mere .237 with two outs and runner on second or third, and though their pitchers are good enough to hold opponents, they will need an offense if they want to win.
Declining Fielding
7 of 10
The Phillies’ defense has been on the decline since 2008, and they have shown their reliance on offense by acquiring Placido Polanco to play third base instead of Pedro Feliz. Feliz is known mainly as a fielding third baseman, while Polanco is an older, offensive player who has been converted from second base.
If you look at the Gold Glove winners over the last three years, the Phillies had their infielders and outfielders winning often, but in 2010, they only had one winner in Victorino, who barely won it. With an aging team, defense can be key, but they showed their decline during the playoffs when Gold Glover Chase Utley made multiple errors, and their defense in general did not look as stellar as it did during their World Series run in 2008.
Utley and Rollins had great chemistry, and turned a ridiculous amount of double plays during their World Series run, but last year they lost that chemistry due to injuries, and it will be difficult for them to regain it.
Uggla Signing With the Braves
8 of 10
Dan Uggla is an asset no matter where he plays, and now that he is on a good team like the Braves, he can be a force. Uggla was previously on the Marlins, who were a decent offensive bunch, but he and Hanley Ramirez where the main parts to their offense, and because of this, they had to protect each other, but Uggla still got pitched around.
Now that Uggla is on the Braves, he can have Heyward backing him up so that pitchers will have to pitch to him. Uggla will see more fastballs, and because of that, he will be even more of a force. Look for him to have a big year with more runners on and more fastballs thrown his way.
Now, look at the Braves.
Their only real hole in the playoffs was at second where their young second baseman made errors and did not hit very well. Now that they have arguably the best second baseman in the game, they are a complete team with offense and pitching. The Braves will work like a well—oiled machine.
Divisional Woes
9 of 10
The Phillies have struggled against a few teams in their division no matter how their records set them apart. These teams are the Mets and Nationals, and now the Braves' stock is on the rise.
The Phillies and Mets have been long standing rivals, and just because the Mets are going through some management changes and seasonal woes doesn't mean that the Mets are going to just roll over. Throughout the years, the Mets and Phils have had their problems with each other, and you can count on them to try to knock one another out.
The Nationals have not exactly been a good club, but they have hurt the Phillies during big games, and now that they have Jayson Werth, this could become a good seasonal series.
The Braves' lineup is complete and their pitching is always good. The games between the Phillies and Braves may decide the Divisional title in 2010.
Lastly, the Marlins may have lost Dan Uggla, but they still have Hanley Ramirez, they recently signed Ricky Nolasco back, Josh Johnson is a monster, and you can count on them to try to return to some glory by beating the Phillies.
Can Hamels and Oswalt Live Up To Sky—High Expectations?
10 of 10
Everyone still thinks of Roy Oswalt as the ace of Houston, and everyone remembers Cole Hamels' World Series and NLCS MVPs from 2008. But are they still that good?
Oswalt has struggled recently, and his ERA has been pretty high. With Houston, it was not below three since 2006. If you take away Oswalt's stats with the Phils, he was 6—12 with a 3.42 ERA, not the numbers everyone is expecting. Now obviously he did very well with the Phillies (7—1 with a 1.74 ERA), but can he keep it up? Odds are no, you can't expect a pitcher to keep those numbers up. Oswalt must settle into a new role as the third starter, and when the expectations of carrying a team to the playoffs are off (as they were in Houston), he might not do as well.
Hamels finished with a 4.29 ERA in 2009, and he will have to settle into a new role, which he did not do well the last time Cliff Lee came over (remember his postseason woes?). So why should he do well this time? Hamels and Lee pitch the same games, which is why Hamels struggled. They both have good fastballs, but rely on their breaking pitches, and since they have generally the same wind up, it would not be surprising if Hamels struggled this year.
The four man rotation may not be as good as everyone thinks, and these two could be problematic stat wise.
