NFL Picks Week 16: Setting the Upset Alert Odds For Every Game
NFL Picks Week 16 are in.
Once again, there are several huge divisional games, several huge conference games and a few important inter-conference showdowns.
Last week, the road teams made a lot of noise: the Jets, Bears, Eagles and Falcons all pulled off wins away from home, and the Packers came oh so close to doing so.
How will the road underdogs fare in Week 16? What about the few home dogs?
Check out these picks.
Carolina Panthers (2-12) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4)
1 of 16
Line: Pittsburgh by 14.5
The Steelers are coming off a tough loss to the Jets in which they nearly pulled off an unlikely comeback. Two ways to look at that: they'll either be spent and have the so-called "hangover" or they'll be itching to take it out on someone.
Look for the latter.
Pittsburgh ran the ball pretty effectively on the Jets and they'll be able to do so again on Thursday.
Carolina wasn't done any favors by the league, being sent to Pittsburgh on a very short week. The Panthers have played admirably this year, considering their injuries, lack of talent/depth, and the shaky status of their head coach. But they won't be able to score nearly enough points to contend.
The Steelers win handily, but not in a huge blowout.
Upset Probability: Very low, 1 out of 10
Minnesota Vikings (5-9) At Philadelphia Eagles (10-4)
2 of 16
Line: Eagles by 14
With or without Brett Favre, the Vikings are going to struggle to score points in Philadelphia. Adrian Peterson would give them a much better chance, except he is on the mend. At least they have Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice back.
The Vikings defense does not have enough in the secondary to contain Michael Vick or DeSean Jackson so expect both of them to make more huge, exlposive plays.
The only hope for Minnesota is that the Eagles are ripe for a let down following the huge win in the New Meadowlands last Sunday.
Don't count on it. Eagles cover.
Upset Probability: Very Low, 2 out of 10
Tennessee Titans (6-8) at Kansas City (9-5)
3 of 16
Line: Chiefs by 5
Kansas City got back on track last week, defeating the Rams on the road in a must win. Not surprisingly, they did so with Matt Cassel back under center.
The Titans snapped their long losing streak on Sunday by darting out to a huge lead against the sinking Texans. But that doesn't signify a turn around for Jeff Fisher's team. There are still plenty of problems there, and they don't have the muscle up front to wrangle the two excellent Chiefs backs.
The Chiefs can smell a division title for the first time since 2003. With that veteran, seasoned coaching staff, they won't let an inferior team come to town and ruin that.
Chiefs win by double digits.
Upset Probability: Very low, 2 of 10
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.jpg?w=256 "Eagles Commanders Football")
San Diego Chargers (8-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-11)
4 of 16
Line: Chargers 7.5
San Diego thumped their last two opponents, both of whom had something to play for. And now that the Bengals have snapped their long losing streak, they really have nothing to play for; a win this week isn't going to keep Marvin Lewis job safe.
Phillip Rivers hasn't torched any secondary for 300-plus yards in a while so he's due, especially since Vincent Jackson is back to his 2009 form.
The Bengals may not have won many games with him, but Terrell Owens was a huge part of the Cincinnati offense. Without him, they won't have his big play ability or the threat in the red zone. Chad Ochocinco is nursing a banged up ankle.
Chargers pull away in the second half.
Upset Probability: Low, 3 out of 10
Baltimore Ravens (10-4) at Cleveland (5-9)
5 of 16
Line: Ravens by 3.5
Although Baltimore's offense is much improved the past two weeks, their defense has been surprisingly vulnerable during those games against the Texans and Saints. Fortunately, they will face a Browns team that is one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL.
The only chance the Browns have of scoring on long drives against Baltimore is a few big plays in the passing game, preferably a screen to Peyton Hillis. And if their run defense surrenders their average 125 yards per game on the ground, they won't be able to get off the field.
Ray Rice isn't quite yet an "elite" NFL running back, but he's getting there, as he showed Sunday against New Orleans: 31 carries, 153 yards.
Upset Probability: Low, 3 out of 10
Dallas Cowboys (5-9) at Arizona Cardinals (4-10)
6 of 16
Line: Cowboys by 6.5
Dallas has been impressive under Jason Garrett, winning four of six and losing twice by just a field goal. They still haven't been running the ball as well as they should, but the passing game continues to open up.
Their defense remains pretty suspect, especially against the pass. Fortunately for them, the Cardinals offense is virtually non-existent. Even on the road, the Cowboys should jump out to a pretty big lead, which they may or may not be able to hold on to, depending on the running game.
If Felix Jones and Tashard Choice get on track, they'll be able to salt away another win by the middle of the third quarter.
Upset Probability: Low, 3 out of 10
New England Patriots (12-2) at Buffalo Bills (4-10)
7 of 16
Line: New England by 8
The Patriots have already lost one road game to a much lesser opponents, when they went to Cleveland and were beaten thoroughly by the Browns. And last week they were fortunate to escape Gillette Stadium with a win over the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers.
Having said that, the Bills probably don't stand much of a chance Sunday.
The Patriots are just too balanced for them. Against the 32nd ranked run defense, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead will eat up yards. And Tom Brady is not Chad Henne, Jake Delhomme, or Tarvaris Jackson, the last three quarterbacks the Bills have faced and done a pretty good job against.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has played well in the second half, even the Harvard grad will be confused by some of the Patriots fronts.
Upset Probability: Low, 4 out of 10
Seattle Seahawks (6-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6)
8 of 16
Line: Buccaneers by 6
Matt Hasselbeck was pretty awful last week at home against the Falcons. Maybe the Charlie Whitehurst era is approaching sooner than expected.
Either way, a cross-country win for the slumping Seahawks is a tall order. They have now lost six of their last eight and the Bucs aren't a good matchup for them.
Josh Freeman's mobility can make plays in the passing game, and LeGarrette Blount has become a emerging star, who is a load to bring down.
Marshawn Lynch has started to fit into the Seahawks offense so he is their best hope for a win at Raymond James Stadium; 100 yards and/or 25 carries from him would make this one a close game.
The Bucs should win with a late field goal.
Upset Probability: Low, 4 out of 10
Washington Redskins (5-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6)
9 of 16
Line: Jaguars by 7
Jacksonville just couldn't come up with enough defensive stops last week on the road against the Colts and Peyton Manning; at home against Rex Grossman and the Redskins is a little bit of a different scenario.
Grossman was very effective Sunday against the Cowboys and he'll make some plays, but not enough to score 30 points again. And that will be the result of Maurice Jones-Drew keeping the Jags offense on the field, sustaining long drives, and limiting Washington's scoring opportunities.
The Colts held Jones-Drew held to under 100 yards for the first time in seven games, but the Redskins won't be able to repeat that feat. Because Washington's defense is so bad against both the run (27th) and the pass (31st) they will be able to key in on either.
Upset Probability: Medium, 5 out of 10
Detroit Lions (4-10) at Miami Dolphins (7-7)
10 of 16
Line: Dolphins by 3.5
The Dolphins have been awful at home, losing six of seven, and last week was no exception.
Miami's running game deserves a lot of the blame for their woes, although Chad Henne has become the scapegoat. And with Ndomekong Suh, who is coming close to wrapping up defensive rookie of the year honors, coming to town, the Dolphins will again struggle to score points (they've score 30 total in the last three games combined).
Calvin Johnson will pose some problems for the Miami secondary and Maurice Morris did a great job in last week's win over Tampa. But in the end, they too won't come up with many points.
A painfully low scoring game, this one could go either way.
Upset Probability: Medium, 6 out of 10
New Orleans Saints (11-3) at Atlanta Falcons (12-2)
11 of 16
Line: Falcons by 2.5
Would it really be an "upset" if the Saints win this one?
These very well could be the two best teams in the NFC and they might end up meeting again, in the same place, for the conference championship by late January.
Still, the Falcons have a slight edge because of Michael Turner. Every time he moves the chains, that means Drew Brees won't be able to throw to one of what seem to be 50 different great pass catchers.
Brees is still throwing interceptions at a remarkable clip (at least one in each of the past 10 games, 17 in all), but even if he turns the ball over, they can still put points on the board when they need to.
Upset Probability: Medium, 6 out of 10
San Francisco 49ers (5-9) at St. Louis Rams (6-8)
12 of 16
Line: Rams by 2
Who would dare try to predict what is going to take place in the NFC West? Well, we will.
Sam Bradford has started to look a little bit more like a rookie as of late (five interceptions, zero touchdowns the past three weeks); maybe he's hitting the proverbial "rookie wall." Luckily he has Steven Jackson.
The 49ers offense (again) looked horrible last Thursday night against San Diego: just 192 total yards, one meaningless fourth quarter touchdown. And although the Rams defense is playing better, they have not defeated a good offense since Week 6 when they topped the Chargers.
This one should also be a low scoring affair with both teams staying under 20 points.
Upset Probability: Medium, 6 out of 10
Houston Texans (5-9) at Denver Broncos (3-11)
13 of 16
Line: Houston by 3
With Tim Tebow under center, there should be some excitement to this game between two marginal teams.
Tebow ran the ball well, but he didn't have too many chances to throw in Oakland last Sunday. Against the Texans, and the worst pass defense in the NFL, that should change.
Denver's defense hasn't shown an ability to slow down many teams this year and even though the Texans are far out of the playoff picture (and Gary Kubiak could be coaching his second last game as a head coach), that won't change.
Tebow and company can pull of this pseudo upset, if they get a few second half stops.
Upset Probability: Good, 7 out of 10
New York Giants (9-5) at Green Bay Packers (8-6)
14 of 16
Line: Packers by 3
The Giants epic collapse last week is certainly the type of game that can ruin a season and cost the head coach his job. But they still have the capability of putting 30 points up in every game they play, even without Steve Smith and a banged up Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham. That will keep them in the game at Lambeau.
Green Bay is not exactly in a tail-spin, despite their two loses in two weeks— you take Aaron Rodgers away from that offense and it is going to be borderline traumatic. But they should have some optimism given how well they played Sunday night in Foxboro.
This should be a back and forth, high scoring affair, which means either team can pull out the W.
Upset Probability: Good, 8 out of 10
New York Jets (10-4) at Chicago Bears (10-4)
15 of 16
Line: Bears by 1
As the Vegas line indicates, this is definitely the most evenly matched game of the weekend. Both teams have an explosive return man (who scored last week), excellent defenses, and occasionally disappointing offenses.
But both teams also won huge games last week on the road. Chicago needs a big game out of Jay Cutler to make up for the fact that they won't attempt to run the ball against the Jets.
Across the field, Mark Sanchez was improved last week and came up huge against the Steelers, avoiding pressure to get the ball downfield. He'll need that same mobility this week against Chicago. And if he does so, look for him to get the ball downfield to one of his two big play receivers for a huge touchdown.
Upset Probability: Good, 9 out of 10
Indianapolis Colts (8-6) at Oakland Raiders (7-7)
16 of 16
Line: Colts by 3
Indianapolis turned out a huge win last week against the Jaguars. Peyton Manning was once again very sharp throwing the ball, but the key to the game was the defense. They held Maurice Jones-Drew in check for most of the game and didn't allow very many big plays on offense.
But calling on that average run defense to repeat that feat for a second straight week, against the explosive Darren McFadden, is asking a lot. He can burn them in both the run game and the screen game, and that could be the difference.
Donald Brown has a huge task before him as well. Another productive day running the ball will let Manning be more selective in the play calling.
Upset Probability: Good, 9 out of 10
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