MLB Rumors: Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox Staying Together
Paul Konerko is reportedly heading back to the Chicago White Sox for another few seasons.
The long-time White Sox player is said to have signed a three-year deal worth $37.5-million.
Konerko had an incredible season last year and I'm all for loyalty, but this probably wasn't the greatest deal that Chicago could have made.
Read on to find out why.
Age
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Konerko has been a great hitter for most of his career and shows no signs of slowing down, but his age is creeping up into the higher numbers.
The slugger is currently 34 years old and will turn 35 in March.
By the time his contract expires, he'll be 38 years old. The list of ball players who are still slugging home run after home run at age 38 is a pretty short one.
He should be able to produce, but the White Sox are paying him as if he's still in his prime.
The Salary
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Konerko's last contract was a five-year, $60-million deal. After a bit of simple math, you can see that the deal was worth $12-million per year.
Now he's going to be paid $37.5-million over the next three years. That's $12.5-million a year, a slight increase in salary.
With the exception of last year, Konerko hasn't been quite as good as he was before the last deal. There's no way that he should be paid more in this contract.
BABIP
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One of the reasons for the inflated perception of the slugger's skills is his high average last year. Konerko hit .312 last year, just .001 short of his career-high, set back in 2006.
However, just like in 2006, this number was highly inflated due to luck. Konerko's BABIP was extraordinarily elevated.
(For those of you who don't know what BABIP is, read this article for a good explanation:"The Impending Tim Hudson Implosion: An Example of Luck in Baseball." )
Konerko's BABIP was .326 last year, tied for 2006 for the highest in his career. When you consider that his average BABIP during his career has been .285, the batting average becomes a fluke.
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Defense
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Konerko has never been known as a wizard with the glove, so the only benefit that the White Sox get out of him comes from his production at the plate.
As I've detailed in the previous slides, this production isn't going to be quite as good as many Chicago fans will expect, but there won't be the added bonus of good defense to make up for it.
In fact, Konerko has actually been detrimental to his team behind the plate. In his career, the slugger has a -3.0 defensive WAR, meaning that a league average minor league first baseman would have added three wins to the team's total if he'd played defense for Konerko over the course of his career.
Postseason
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No team signs a player just for how they're going to play in the regular season. They sign him in the hopes that the team will make the playoffs and that player will help produce a World Series title.
Paul Konerko though has never been great in the postseason.
He's made it to the playoffs in three different seasons, playing in a total of five series.
In those appearances, he's only batted .243 with seven home runs. Not exactly setting the world on fire there.
The Verdict
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Paul Konerko is a great baseball player and the White Sox should be happy to have him back, but expectations need to be tempered.
Last year was a fluke and that kind of production cannot be expected to happen again. In fact, a decline over the next few years is almost inevitable.
A three-year, $37.5-million deal is not unreasonable by any means, but it's not exactly a bargain either.
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