2010 NFC Playoff Predictions: Predicting the Unpredictable
Four weeks remain. Every week matters.
It's crunch time for every team in the NFL. After 12 weeks of trash talk, hard hitting and drama unfolding, it all comes down to who wants it most.
Unlike the majority of the past few seasons, this year, the NFC seems to be the center of attention as the regular season comes to a close.
The Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams and Seattle Seahawks are all locked in one of the tightest playoff races to date.
Of the teams listed, three will fail to make the playoffs and one or two of them could easily have a record of 10-6 or better.
Who will make it? Who won't? And most importantly, which team is the best?
NFC West: St. Louis Rams/Seattle Seahawks
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Unfortunately, one of these two teams will make the playoffs by default.
Don't take it the wrong way—both of these teams have improved dramatically from last season. In most cases, I would even cheer for them to succeed in the underdog role. But due to the talent level in the NFC this season, it upsets me that one of these teams will make the race.
Both currently hold a record of 6-6. Combined, they are 1-4 against the other teams listed. Seattle pulled off a shocking three-point victory over Chicago in Week 6.
I see the Rams, led by Sam Bradford, taking down the Seahawks in Week 17. This should put them at an 8-8 record and put them in the playoffs as the winners of the NFC West.
It's going to be sad when they get spanked in the first round of the playoffs while two teams with double-digit wins are watching from home.
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
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The Philadelphia Eagles are no joke. Michael Vick has single-handedly taken the Eagles from their “rebuilding” season to possible Super Bowl contenders.
When Kolb took over at the start of the season, Eagles fans were expecting an up-and-down year and many were doubtful the team would reach the playoffs. When Vick stepped in after Kolb went down to injury in Week 1, it was obvious that he was back and the Eagles were for real.
The offense is arguably the best in the league, averaging 28.7 points per game (second in NFL) and 400.7 offensive yards per game (first in NFL). Playmakers take the field at every position with DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin at wide receiver, Brent Celek at tight end, LeSean McCoy at running back and, of course, Vick at quarterback.
The downfall of the team this season has been its defense. However, I tend to believe it's not quite as bad as most people think.
Statistically they allow 23.4 points per game (20th in NFL) and 326.1 yards per game (12th in NFL). The big problem has been the red zone defense. They’ve allowed a touchdown in 76.7 percent of red-zone opportunities. It is the worst red zone defense since the 1988 Houston Oilers.
Despite the problems, I do feel the Eagles will improve in the final four weeks of the season.
The defense has been battling injuries the majority of the year. This week, Asante Samuel and Juqua Parker will be back in the lineup. The two are big playmakers for the defense and should provide a slight boost in performance.
I see the Eagles winning three of their last four, beating the Cowboys once, the Giants and the Vikings.
I would not put it past the Cowboys to pull an upset during one of the two meetings, but it is possible that Philadelphia could win out.
NFC North: Green Bay Packers
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I know all the Chicago fans out there are mad at me right now, but I have the Packers winning the NFC North with a final record of 11-5.
Don't be too mad. If you read on, I'll explain why I really feel the Packers will win the division. For now, let's focus on that.
The primary reason is their schedules. The Packers face the Lions, Patriots, Giants and, of course, the Bears to close the season.
After a loss to New England and two wins against New York and Detroit, the division will probably be decided in the final week when Chicago goes to Lambeau. It comes down to Aaron Rodgers vs. Jay Cutler, and at the end of the day, I just have more faith that Rodgers can get it done.
This is a team that was rattled by injuries early in the season. Even with the three-point loss to Atlanta in the Georgia Dome two weeks ago, this team has really turned it on in recent weeks.
Despite completely lacking a running game, the offense still averages 25.2 points per game (seventh in the NFL). But it's not Aaron Rodgers and the offense that makes me believe in this team, it's actually the defense.
Think about the top defenses in the NFL—the teams that often come to mind are the Steelers, Bears, Ravens and Jets.
Would you have guessed that it's actually the Green Bay Packers who have the top defense in the league right now, averaging 15.2 points allowed per game?
Dom Capers turned the defense to a 3-4 scheme when he joined the coaching staff last season and has since made it a force to be reckoned with. You know what they say: Defense wins championships.
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons
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They already have the best record in the NFC and now they have arguably the easiest schedule to finish off the season. They play Carolina twice and Seattle once for three more easy wins.
However, they do have to face the Saints at home.
Atlanta is undefeated when they play at home, which also makes them a huge threat as the No. 1 seed throughout the playoffs.
Don't sleep on the Saints, though, as they could pull an upset as the season comes to a close.
Whether or not they do, I still have Atlanta finishing the season at an NFC-best 13-3 record. This would give them home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Quarterback Matt Ryan has been outstanding at home this season. He has completed 68 percent of his passes for 1,548 yards, 12 touchdowns and three interceptions.
Compare this to his away stats, where he has completed 58.9 percent of his passes for 1,375 yards, nine touchdowns and four interceptions.
Forget just this season. We are talking about all time.
Ryan is 19-1 when playing in the Georgia Dome. Most teams have a slight home-field advantage, For the Falcons, it's a bit beyond that.
However, by season's end, I expect that record to read 20-2. A win against the Panthers, but a loss to the New Orleans Saints...
Wild Card No. 1: New Orleans Saints
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Right now, the Saints are tied for the second-best record in the NFC. The fact that I have them as the No. 1 Wild Card team doesn't mean I believe they will falter from that record.
In fact, by the time the season is over, I still think they will have the second-best record in the NFC. The problem for the Saints is that the best record will belong to their division rival, the Falcons.
The Saints have one of the more difficult conclusions to the season. They face the NFC West-leading Rams, the Ravens, who are now battling for a spot in the AFC playoffs, the Falcons, who are unbeatable at home and the best in the NFC, and the Buccaneers, who will be fighting for a Wild Card spot themselves.
For some reason, I'm having a hard time picking against them in any of them. The worst part is, I really have no idea why. They barely beat the Bengals last week and they had to muster up a ridiculous comeback against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.
But they find a way to win games.
Statistically they have one of the top offenses and defenses in the league and they are, of course, the defending Super Bowl Champions.
With wins against the Rams and the Buccaneers, the Saints will be at an 11-5 record at worst. I believe that will still be enough to win the top Wild Card seed in the NFC.
However, I do think that they could beat the Falcons, and they could beat the Ravens. Who knows, like an onside kick to start the second half of the Super Bowl, the Saints are just unpredictable.
Unpredictable or not, they'll still make the playoffs.
Wild Card No. 2: Bears/Giants/Buccaneers
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This is where it all gets interesting. First, let's break it down for each team.
The Chicago Bears have the toughest of the three schedules. They sit at 9-3 currently, but with games against the Patriots, Jets and Packers, it's going to be hard to break 10 wins.
I have very little faith in the Bears offense, especially with an inconsistent Jay Cutler at quarterback. Sure, they can pull off close wins against Detroit and Buffalo and a beaten-up Philadelphia team, but I don't think they will pull that off with the talent they face down the stretch.
Even the Vikings could give the Bears problems now that they seem to have things going. I won't go that far and will still give them one win, bringing their final record to 10-6.
The New York Giants just can't decide if they want to win or not. Every week it looks as if a different team takes the field. They look awful, then fantastic, then awful, then fantastic.
If they get some consistency, they could easily give Philadelphia a run for the NFC East, but if they don't, they will find themselves in trouble. I have Philadelphia and Green Bay both beating the Giants, who will tally wins against the Vikings and Redskins.
They have to be careful, though—if the wrong team comes to play the wrong week they may find themselves completely out of the hunt. With two wins, their final record would come to 10-6.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are currently positioned worse off than the Bears and the Giants. However, they have a much easier schedule for their final four games.
Washington, Detroit and Seattle should all be wins. As much as I would like to predict an upset over the Saints, I can't quite do it, which brings their final record to 10-6.
With three 10-6 teams and one spot available, we must resort to the NFL's tiebreaker rules.
First comes head-to-head sweep. There isn't one.
Next step is best win-loss percentage within the conference. Each team would end the conference with an 8-4 record, still no tiebreaker.
Step three is best win-loss percentage in common games with a minimum of four games played. Four were not played.
Step four is strength of victory. In order to figure this out I would have to predict every final record and add them all up. Screw tiebreakers.
I think the point is clear: The NFC is so tight this season that every game matters. One little mistake could be the difference between winning the division and missing the playoffs completely.
It's almost impossible to predict how things will turn out, but it will definitely be a fun ride.
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