Jonathan Papelbon's Position Is By No Means Secure In The Offseason
The hot stove is just starting to warm, and the Red Sox are making headlines alongside their rival Yankees. Not only are the Red Sox somewhat in the running for Cliff Lee (more likely just to up the price), they apparently were in the Mariano Rivera race. Whereas the Yankees invited captain Derek Jeter to test the free agent market, they made no such indications with Rivera, and for this exact reason.
Although they won in the end, they did not want a team such as Boston (who has the money) to bid on Rivera, because he really is worth that much to them. Not only does this create a stir within the Yankee fanbase, but it also makes you wonder: why would the Red Sox do this when Jonathan Papelbon is there?
Here's why.
#1: The 2010 Season
1 of 4
Entering this past season, it seemed likely that Papelbon would rebound from 2009's heartbreaking playoff loss to the Angels. However, this year was the worst of Papelbon's career. His record was 5-7 with a dismal 3.90 ERA. Many of those losses were due to Papelbon's eight blown saves, out of 45 save chances. Still, he showed the ability to overcome the second highest H/9 average of his career (7.7, only behind 8.7 as a rookie), as he also powered through many jams to save games. Papelbon did not have the same stuff as in the past, and it's tempting to blame his playoff woes from 2009 as why.
#2: He Has Made It Clear He Wants a Big Payday
2 of 4
Due to his career 2.22 ERA, Papelbon has good reason to demand that he get a big long-term contract. However, if he does not significantly improve from last year, his contract year will not be good for his value. Papelbon has said in years past he would never rule out leaving Boston if the numbers were right for him. If the numbers he has in mind are higher than Theo Epstein plans, you can expect that Theo will pass. After all he's got a solid backup in...
#3: Daniel Bard
3 of 4
This 25-year old fireballer has shown a lot of promise, and Terry Francona put a lot of trust in Bard in tight situations this season. A 1.93 ERA over 74 innings is extremely impressive. What's even more impressive are the 76 strikeouts tallied over those innings. There were times Bard was placed in high-pressure situations, and you saw him rear back and bring another game to the plate. He threw harder and blew away those who got in his way. Daniel Bard is not to be messed with, and proving he can serve a role late in games is a good reason why the Red Sox can feel comfortable if they decide to dump Papelbon. So what should the Red Sox do?
Conclusion: Be Reasonable
4 of 4
The Red Sox need to realize that if they want to keep Papelbon, they need to watch him closely from the start of spring training and determine what they will pay. I think it's a bad idea to offer him a contract this offseason, if 2010 is anything to go by.
However, one option is if Papelbon is showing promise early, the Red Sox get him extended by the trade deadline next season. Another option is if the numbers do not add up to be sensible, the Red Sox need to have him moved by the trade deadline. It should be easy to do. Even if his 2011 isn't spectacular, there will be teams looking to make playoff runs who would salivate at the prospect of Papelbon holding the ball in the 9th. Letting him go and getting a draft pick will not be enough. The Red Sox can get a good player for Papelbon, and they can even throw him in a package to get talent needed. The last option the Red Sox have is to move Papelbon now. I don't know how great an idea this is, unless it lands Adrian Gonzalez in Boston. Unless the deal is amazing, I say try Papelbon out in 2011, and if Theo thinks Pap won't be back, move him by the deadline. If they don't do one of these things, the Red Sox could very well be regretting their decision a year from now.
.png?w=480)
