Adrian Gonzalez Contract Extension Talks Die: How Much Is He Really Worth?
The Boston Red Sox failed to come to an agreement with first basemen Adrian Gonzalez today on a contract extension.
The botched deal comes on the heels of a potential blockbuster trade with the San Diego Padres agreed to earlier in the week. The Red Sox would have sent top prospects Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo and Reymond Fuentes plus a player to be named later to San Diego in exchange for Gonzalez.
Gonzalez will make $5.5 million in 2011, in what was supposed to be his final season before becoming a free agent. The Red Sox attempted to negotiate an extension with the slugger, but the two sides couldn't agree on an appropriate figure. But how much is Gonzalez actually worth?
The only way to answer that question is to see what baseball's other elite first basemen are being paid and how they were performing at the time that they signed their contracts. So with that, here's a look at the other monster contracts that the game's top first basemen have signed in recent years.
Justin Morneau (6-Year, $80 Million)
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Morneau is the player most statistically similar to Gonzalez at the age of 28. So how did Morneau earn his paycheck?
The Twins' big, left-handed slugger was the MVP in 2006, coming off a season in which he hit a career-high 34 home runs. He followed that up with another monster season in 2007 (31 HR, 111 RBI) and was named to his first All-Star team.
Minnesota wasn't a team renowned for paying their stars, but they decided to make an exception for Morneau who, at the time, shared the spotlight in the Twin Cities with ace Johan Santana. The $80 million extension signed before the 2008 season will pay Morneau $14 million each season through 2013. It's a hefty contract, but miniscule in proportion to what other first basemen are being paid today (and to what the Twins later gave Joe Mauer).
Morneau
2007 line (26) - .271/.343/.492, 31 HR, 111 RBI, 2.6 WAR
Career average - .286/.358/.511, 31 HR, 116 RBI
Gonzalez
2010 line (28) - .298/.393/.511, 31 HR, 101 RBI, 6.3 WAR
Career average - .284/.368/.507, 32 HR, 99 RBI
Miguel Cabrera (8-Year, $152.3 Million)
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Cabrera, the former Florida Marlins superstar, came over to Detroit in a trade prior to the 2008 season. The Tigers wasted no time locking up one of the best hitters in all of baseball, signing Cabrera to a massive eight-year, $152.3 million contract.
The deal calls for Cabrera to be paid $20 million in 2010 and 2011, $21 million in 2012 and 2013, and $22 million in 2014 and 2015.
Though the Tigers have suffered from a lack of financial flexibility because of the massive contract and Cabrera's defensive shortcomings, the 27-year-old slugger is undoubtedly worth the price. Cabrera's averages in Detroit are an insane .314/.388/.567 with a .954 OPS.
You don't give $20 million salaries to players unless they're going to be the best at their position. And though Cabrera has been shuffling back and forth between first, third and DH, he's still one of the best hitters in the game.
Cabrera
2007 line (24) - .320/.401/.565, 34 HR, 119 RBI, 3.9 WAR
Career average - .313/.388/.552, 34 HR, 120 RBI
Gonzalez
2010 line (28) - .298/.393/.511, 31 HR, 101 RBI, 6.3 WAR
Career average - .284/.368/.507, 32 HR, 99 RBI
Mark Teixeira (8-Year, $180 Million)
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Teixeira, believe it or not, is the only player on this list who signed his contract as a free agent and with a new team. It's not surprising, though, considering the path that Teixeira took to free agency.
After establishing himself as one of the game's young stars while in Texas, Teixeira was traded first to the Atlanta Braves in 2007 and then to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in 2008. It didn't matter where he was playing, however, because Teixeira continued to smash the ball.
The value of Teixeira's contract is somewhat inflated because the Yankees were bidding against other teams for his services (Red Sox, Angels), but it's still a benchmark of what young, power-hitting first basemen are going for these days. The deal will pay Teixeira $22.5 million each season from 2011-2016.
Teixeira
2008 line (28) - .308/.410/.552, 33 HR, 121 RBI, 4.0/3.3 WAR
Career average - .286/.377/.536, 37 HR, 121 RBI
Gonzalez
2010 line (28) - .298/.393/.511, 31 HR, 101 RBI, 6.3 WAR
Career average - .284/.368/.507, 32 HR, 99 RBI
Albert Pujols (7-Year, $100 Million)
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Pujols' numbers are so off the charts that it may be pointless to attempt a comparison here since he's woefully underpaid right now. But let's try anyway.
Pujols was the runaway Rookie of the Year in 2001 and he followed that up by narrowly losing out to Barry Bonds for MVP the next season. I'm sure Pujols is over it because he's won three MVP's since.
The Cardinals wanted to avoid arbitration with Pujols and extend their young slugger long-term and they somehow got Pujols to agree to a seven-year deal for $100 million. He will make $14 million next season in the final year of his contract, about half of what he would demand on the free agent market.
Pujols will be the first player in baseball history to have an average salary of at least $30 million a year when he signs his next contract (Alex Rodriguez will make $31 million next season). Just look at his numbers!
Pujols
2003 line (23) - .359/.439/.667, 43 HR, 124 RBI, 10.9 WAR
Career average - .331/.426/.624, 42 HR, 128 RBI
Gonzalez
2010 line (28) - .298/.393/.511, 31 HR, 101 RBI, 6.3 WAR
Career average - .284/.368/.507, 32 HR, 99 RBI
Todd Helton (9-Year, $141.5 Million)
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Remember this guy?
Helton was a huge star in the early part of the decade, and it's easy to see why. The man could absolutely rake. In 2000 he recorded an ungodly 59 doubles and a 1.162 OPS, and was the first player to seriously challenge Ted Williams' .406 mark in years.
The Rockies smartly rewarded Helton with a gigantic extension that is still among the largest in baseball history. The nine-year, $141.5 million contract made Helton one of the highest paid players in the game at an average of about $16 million a season.
This is small compared to what some of baseball's other stars are being paid nowadays, but it's still a decent barometer of what Gonzalez could demand.
Helton
2000 line (26) - .372/.463/.698, 42 HR, 147 RBI, 8.8 WAR
Career average - .324/.424/.555, 28 HR, 104 RBI
Gonzalez
2010 line (28) - .298/.393/.511, 31 HR, 101 RBI, 6.3 WAR
Career average - .284/.368/.507, 32 HR, 99 RBI
Jason Giambi (7-Year, $120 Million)
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Giambi was a monster (literally, and figuratively) coming up with the Oakland Athletics, following in the oversized footsteps of Mark McGwire. He was the AL MVP in 2000 and finished second in voting in 2001 before bolting to the Yankees for the big dollars.
The Yankees were more than happy to pay Giambi, giving him a seven-year deal for $120 million that made Giambi, along with Helton, the highest paid first basemen in the game. In his last season (2008) with the Yankees, Giambi made a colossal $23.4 million, while only playing in 145 games.
Giambi's contract provided a foundation for the Teixeira negotiations, which would dwarf this contract in both length and amount.
Giambi
2001 line (30) - .342/.477/.660, 38 HR, 120 RBI, 10.3 WAR
Career average - .281/.405/.524, 33 HR, 108 RBI
Gonzalez
2010 line (28) - .298/.393/.511, 31 HR, 101 RBI, 6.3 WAR
Career average - .284/.368/.507, 32 HR, 99 RBI
Ryan Howard (5-Year, $125 Million)
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Howard is an interesting case study because he's actually signed two massive extensions in recent years. But before we get to that, let's review Howard's career a little bit.
He was Rookie of the Year in 2005 despite only playing in 88 games (and managing to hit 22 HR). In 2006, he was the NL MVP after hitting a career-high 58 HR and knocking in 149 runs, including an astronomical 1.084 OPS. He finished in the top five in MVP voting in each of the next two seasons and was arguably the best pure power hitter in baseball.
The Phillies didn't want to overpay for Howard through arbitration, so instead they bought out his arbitration years by signing him to a three-year, $54 million extension prior to the 2009 season.
Howard had another fantastic season in 2009 and the Phillies rewarded him with another contract extension that will begin in 2012 and pay him $125 million through 2016. Howard will make $25 million each season from 2014-2016, and has a club option for $23 million for 2017.
It was one of the first nine-figure contracts to be given to a young superstar who had never reached free agency, and established a precedent for negotiations between teams and their own studs (Milwaukee—Ryan Braun, Colorado—Troy Tulowitzki, Tampa Bay—Evan Longoria, Boston—Dustin Pedroia.
And now, Adrian Gonzalez.
Howard
2008 line (28) - .251/.339/.543, 48 HR, 146 RBI, 2.8 WAR
2009 line (29) - .279/.360/.571, 45 HR, 141 RBI, 4.8 WAR
Career average - .279/.372/.572, 47 HR, 138 RBI
Gonzalez
2010 line (28) - .298/.393/.511, 31 HR, 101 RBI, 6.3 WAR
Career average - .284/.368/.507, 32 HR, 99 RBI
So How Much Is Gonzalez Worth?
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Gonzalez is most similar to Morneau and Teixeira and, like both of those sluggers, is strong defensively. Ignore the lower home run and RBI totals. Gonzalez played in a pitcher's park at Petco and he had next to zero lineup protection with the San Diego Padres.
Project him into the Red Sox lineup and Gonzalez's numbers should see a sizable bump. An average of 40 HR and 120 RBI is entirely possible.
Those numbers would augment Gonzalez's value to not just Teixeira-money, but possibly even Cabrera-money. He's still young and may just be entering his prime. He's not worth $30 million a year, but an argument could be made for $25 million.
The Red Sox don't like handing out long-term contracts ever since the whole Manny Ramirez thing (which didn't turn out that badly, by the way). So the offer will probably be limited to six years and $130-150 million.
Gonzalez won't be able to find anything like that on the free agent market, so it's likely that negotiations will pick up again at some point this offseason.
Stay tuned.
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