MLB Trade Rumors: Will Zack Greinke To New York Yankees Really Happen?
Kansas City Royals pitcher Zack Greinke is reportedly willing to waive his no-trade clause to pitch in New York, Yahoo Sports has reported.
The report comes as a bit of a shock considering Greinke’s past bouts with depression and social anxiety disorder, but while it would seem that the pressure and spotlight would exacerbate this condition, Greinke provides an interesting alternative for the Yankees to signing Cliff Lee.
Could this move really happen? Read on as we examine the possibility.
Lack of Consistency
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In 2009, Greinke posted a 2.16 ERA and 242 strikeouts in 229 innings en route to the Cy Young award. The 6’2" righty's follow-up campaign was significantly less impressive.
Last season, Greinke posted a very mediocre 4.17 ERA while seeing his K numbers drop off significantly. In fact, after the All-Star break, Greinke was well below average with a 4.72 ERA and .270 batting average against.
This significant drop off could cause problems during negotiations.
Is New York Really a Good Place For Greinke?
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While Yahoo's Jeff Passan reported that Greinke would be willing to pitch in New York, not everybody is buying it.
In fact as the NY Post’s George King reports, the Yankees don’t believe that the 27-year-old Greinke would be willing to bring his talents to the Bronx.
Their reasoning? Greinke’s aforementioned social anxiety disorder.
Do the Yankees Have the Prospects To Trade?
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One question that arises is whether it is worth trading for Zach Greinke. In all likelihood, the Yankees would need to build a package around top prospect Jesus Montero, who they would be hesitant to deal.
Without Montero, it’s possible that the Yankees don’t have the parts to swing a major deal. The Yanks have great depth in their farm system, but most of their high-upside players are still years away from being major league ready.
Would KC be willing to trade their best player for minor leagues that may need another three years of seasoning? The answer to that question could greatly impact whether a deal is made.
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Lee or Greinke?
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While the Yankees could probably afford to acquire both Cliff Lee and Zach Greinke, in all reality they can only pursue one.
Lee is considered the premier free agent this offseason and could command a five to six-year deal worth around $23 million. Lee is five year older than Greinke and doesn’t have the same explosive stuff as his right-handed counterpart, but Lee has been far more consistent.
Lee finished this season 12-9 with a 3.18 ERA, which is all the more impressive considering he spent half the season in the hitter-friendly Ballpark in Arlington. The two previous years, Lee posted ERA’s of 3.22 and 2.54 respectively.
Lee has deadly accuracy, which makes me believe his inevitable late-career drop off in production will be minimal.
Lee Vs. Greinke According To Bill James
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According to renowned statistician Bill James' predictions, Cliff Lee will post a 14-10 record with a 3.50 ERA next season. His predictions for Greinke? 14-11 with a 3.57.
When you consider that Greinke is under contract for another season at just over $7 million, Greinke looks to be the better short-term bargain.
However, when you consider the prospects it would take to acquire the Royals ace plus his inevitably large extension that Greinke would command, he no longer looks like quite the bargain.
Who Has the Better Stuff?
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When it comes to pure stuff, not many players are in Greinke’s league.
Not only does he have a fastball that sits at 94 mph, he may have the most devastating slider of any righty in baseball. In fact the invaluable website Fangraphs ranked his slider as the 11th- best in the game last season after trailing only the A’s Brett Anderson the previous season.
As dominant as Cliff Lee has been these past three seasons, his pitching repertoire is far less impressive than the Zack Attack’s. Lee’s fastball sits at 90, although his accuracy makes it one of the better heaters in the game.
Lee has five-plus pitche, including a terrific change-up and cutter, but he lacks a go-to pitch like Greinke.
The Premier Foreign Import
7 of 10While Lee and Greinke are both phenomenal options for an already loaded Yankees team, they may not be the best option. In fact, I would argue that the best unsigned pitcher around is the half-Persian, half-Japanese Yu Darvish.
The 24 year old currently pitches for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters and many have speculated that his posting fee alone could run over $70 million. Still, his stuff is unparalleled and Yu had achieved phenomenal numbers in his short career.
Darvish is a two-time MVP of the Japanese League and has posted a career 2.12 ERA with 974 strikeouts in 1,036 innings. Over the past four seasons, Darvish has held his ERA under two with a WHIP consistently under one. Darvish has immaculate control and is an absolute work horse as proven by his 40 complete games in the last four seasons.
If the Yankees really wanted to make a splash, they would sign the best young pitcher in baseball.
Reasons for Lee To NY
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While signing Yu Darvish may be my preferred move, I realize how unlikely it is. Truth be told, grabbing Cliff Lee still seems like the most likely option.
Lee and current Yankee ace C.C. Sabathia are great friends dating back to their days with Cleveland, which should help the Yankees sell Lee on playing in New York. God knows they need his help.
The Yanks pitching fell apart late in the season with highly-paid players like A.J. Burnett posting a heinous 5.26 ERA. In the ALCS, the Rangers scored 38 runs in six games against the Yankees. On the other hand, Cliff Lee is one of the best postseason pitchers in baseball history.
With Cliff making exorbitant salary demands and the Yankees in dire need of some pitching help, this seems like a match made in heaven.
Who Are the Yankees Bidding Against?
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At this point the Yankees aren’t the only team seeking Lee’s services, but they do appear to be the front runner.
The Rangers have yet to make an official offer to Lee, although they are allegedly set to offer him a five-year contract worth around $20 million per season. Considering the Yankees are rumored to have already offered six years at $23 million per, Lee would need to take a hometown discount to stay in Texas (which is unlikely considering he has only called Texas home for a few short months).
Assuming Lee joins the Bronx Bombers and Andy Pettitte stays in New York (it is rumored that he was contacted by the Rangers, although Nolan Ryan refuted the claim) the Yankees rotation would join the elite ranks.
A group of Lee, C.C. Sabathia, Philip Hughes, Pettitte and either Burnett or youngster Ivan Nova would give New York both a top five lineup and rotation and make them the World Series frontrunner.
Where Will Greinke Land?
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The fact that Greinke is willing to play for the Yankees is a significant breakthrough, even if the young righty with filthy stuff never brings his talents north of the Mason Dixon line.
Odds are, the Yankees would rather just spend the money on Lee then trade prospects to acquire Greinke, but he does make for an excellent plan B.
While the Yankees have been mentioned most in connection with Greinke, I’m certain he has many other interested suitors. In the upcoming weeks don’t be surprised to hear the likes of Boston, Los Angeles and other big market teams express interest in Greinke.
We still don’t know whether or not Greinke would definitely accept a trade to a big market team like the Yankees considering the information came from a source close to Greinke rather than Greinke himself. Still, a 27 year old with nasty stuff who under contract until 2012 has immense value, and Royals GM Dayton Moore should receive many offers for his young ace.
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