50 Bold Predictions for the MLB Offseason
The 2010 season went down as one where we saw a shift to a different era.
Gone is the steroid era, and pitching has made a return to prominence. A new crop of rookies looks to be historically good, and many sure-fire Hall of Famers seem to be wrapping up their careers.
Now the season is over, and the offseason hot stove has started in full force. Already one major trade has happened that few saw coming, with Dan Uggla moving to a different team in the same division, the Atlanta Braves. But that won't be the only major deal that will happen.
Some things will be expected this offseason, while others will come out of nowhere. The following are 50 bold predictions of what will happen in the upcoming three months.
Derek Jeter Will Seriously Field Multiple Offers
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The free agency process between Jeter and the Yankees is going to get even more ugly than it already has. Both sides will tweak their offers, but it's going to end with the Yankees taking a risk and letting Jeter test the free agency market to see if he would actually get any better offers.
There are rumors that the San Francisco Giants have contacted Jeter's agent so far, and the Cardinals and Angels will likely send offers as well once the ball gets rolling.
As for the specific contract he will get and with who, that's later on. He likely won't make his final decision until 2011.
Zack Greinke Will Be a Texas Ranger
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One day it seems that the Royals have no desire to trade him, and the next it seems like a trade is inevitable.
If Cliff Lee signs with the Yankees, then this trade absolutely happens. Greinke fits well into the system, and the Rangers will absolutely give up prospects to continue to win now.
Even if Lee remains with the Rangers, I can see them making a play for him and making him the No. 2 guy in the rotation. Pitching wins championships; the Giants proved this last year, and the Rangers want to prove that next year.
The Baltimore Orioles Will Not Only Be Buyers, but Will Also Acquire Big Names
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The Orioles have already made splashes this offseason, as they were one of the teams trying to acquire Victor Martinez.
With a coach in Buck Showalter that has this team playing good baseball and a good foundation in Matt Wieters, Nick Markakis and others, coupled with the Tampa Bay Rays having problems, the timing works for the Orioles to acquire players.
They will definitely acquire a power bat; if not Adam Dunn, then another one that's on the market. They will acquire a shortstop to replace Miguel Tejada, with that shortstop being J.J. Hardy.
They will also grab at least one major starting pitcher—since the market's rather weak on pitching, they'll find a way to make a trade.
One way or another, the O's will surprise us.
We Have Already Seen Most of the Athletics' Moves
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The A's have been busy this offsesason, acquiring David DeJesus from the Royals, as well as Edwin Encarnacion from the Blue Jays. The DeJesus move, in particular, will help build up their offense a good deal. They've even sent in an offer to Adrian Beltre.
Despite the apparent willingness to spend money, I do not see any further major deals happening. They will pick up another player or two, yes, but they won't be the top-level guys.
Adrian Beltre's Contract Will Be Regretted
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With few other good third basemen on the market, Beltre's stock becomes that much better. We have already seen how he plays in non-contract years, though.
Despite this, the Oakland A's have already offered a five-year, $64 million contract, and that won't be the last one.
Wherever he signs, he won't play to the value of the deal, and whoever signs him will regret it unless they keep the deal short and sweet.
The Tigers Will Overpay for Adam Dunn
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The Detroit Tigers are not pulling any punches this offseason. They've acquired Victor Martinez and re-signed Brandon Inge and Jhonny Peralta.
With how much they paid for V-Mart, the Dunn deal, which will happen, will be huge. Not only will it be more than Dunn's worth, but it will make their infield awfully crowded with new contracts.
The Nationals Will Sign Brandon Webb
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The Nationals are a team that likes making a gamble on struggling pitchers or those who are injured. They signed Chien-Ming Wang last year, even though he didn't play a game for them this past season, and they're going to try again and see if it pays off with better results.
Without Stephen Strasburg in the rotation, there is certainly a spot open for Webb if his shoulder holds up.
The Cleveland Indians Will Sign Erik Bedard
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If there's one thing the Indians are pretty good at, it's finding struggling players and suddenly turning them around. It's happened recently with Austin Kearns, Kevin Millwood and Carl Pavano, to name a few.
Erik Bedard will be the next on that list as he gets a one-year contract and suddenly will become a big buy next year.
Manny Ramirez Gets One More Contract
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Manny Ramirez is at the point of his career where he'll sign with whoever he can. He's not the player he once was, and he's running on steam now.
Wherever he signs, it will be with an American League team so he can DH. Also, it will be his last deal.
Derek Jeter's Contract: Four Years, $70 Million
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Given Jeter's legacy and sure-fire Hall of Fame status, he will be overpaid for. There are plenty of teams where he could fit, as well as where he could get hit No. 3,000.
It's not close to the $25 million a year Jeter wants, but once he hits the market he'll realize he won't come close to that.
The Single Greatest Catalyst Will Be Justin Upton
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It's too early to tell if anyone will trade for Justin Upton yet. That being said, the fact that it's being thrown about tells us a lot, and more importantly, his potential landing spot shakes everything up.
If he lands on a team trying to acquire Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth, then suddenly another team will be grabbing those players, and so on. He's the biggest domino despite not being a free agent.
Mark Reynolds Is Gone from Arizona
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I don't know if Upton will be going anywhere, but I can't say the same for Mark Reynolds. Teams will be trying to acquire him because of his power and because the third baseman market is weak.
Arizona will be trying to get rid of him due to his strikeout and batting average numbers, though of course they won't come out and say that. It's not good business sense.
Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte Will Return to the Yankees
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These two pitching greats aren't going anywhere. Pettitte will sign a one-year deal and bring an end to his career; that's a given.
Rivera is tougher to determine, but I see him inking a two-year deal. After that, he may very well retire, but it's too soon to be predicting that for this apparently ageless closer.
The Angels Vs. the Red Sox
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Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth have to be loving these two teams. Both teams will be making serious offers to these two players, and what's more, a bidding war will erupt.
The most likely scenario, as a result, would be both teams paying an arm and a leg, thus acquiring one player each.
I see Crawford in Anaheim and Werth in Boston when it's said and done, but they could very well be switched.
Cliff Lee's Contract: Six Years, $130 Million
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Cliff Lee's deal will come close to that of CC Sabathia's, but since he's older than CC was when he signed his deal, he's not going to make as much. He's in his prime right now though, so the deal will be worth it.
Adrian Gonzalez Will Be on the Red Sox
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I don't know if it's a good fit for the Sox, and I don't think it would be smart for San Diego to give up their best hitter. That being said, it's going to happen.
It's a good thing they can move Kevin Youkilis to third; otherwise there would be problems.
This Year's Steal: Carlos Pena
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Carlos Pena had a bad year last year, hitting under .200. As a result, teams will underpay for him, trying to get him cheaply.
Whoever lands him will be singing his praises soon enough, as he will bounce back in 2011, becoming the Carlos Pena of old.
Carl Pavano Finishes His Career as a Twin
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Carl Pavano has been a perfect fit for the Twins alongside Francisco Liriano. They're not going to let him walk unless a team drastically overpays for him, which isn't out of the question given the weak starting pitching market.
I fully see the Twins giving him a three- or four-year deal, perhaps between $10 and 12 million per, bringing him to his 38th birthday.
The Pirates Will Sneak in and Be Buyers
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The Pirates have money to spend, and with Zach Duke gone, they need to start building up on both fronts. The names they acquire won't be huge ones, but they will be buying up plenty of mid-level talent.
Jeremy Bonderman and Vicente Padilla, as well as Scott Olsen, could be making a trek to Pittsburgh. It would be win-win for both sides; if you're a halfway decent starter, then the Pirates have an opening.
The Rockies Will Release Todd Helton
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Todd Helton had a bad year by normal standards and an even worse one given how well hitters generally play at Coors Field. He's had a great career for the Rockies, and even though it will hurt to eat up his contract, it could happen.
Besides, this opens the door for the Rockies to grab another power bat, something this free agency class is deep in.
Vladimir Guerrero Will Stay with Texas
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Yes, his option was declined, and he wants a multi-year deal. Given what the Rangers have in their lineup, though, why would Vlad leave? He fits well with the Rangers, and both sides know it. He's not going anywhere.
Juan Uribe Will Be a Dodger
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Uribe fits well on the Dodgers. He can fit right into second base now that Blake DeWitt's gone, and the deal would hurt the Giants. That and the Dodgers have shown interest in him, and the reaction has been quite positive that it would work.
Prince Fielder Will Stay, for Now
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Pretty much everyone thinks Prince Fielder's a goner this offseason. It makes sense since Milwaukee won't be able to sign him when he hits free agency next season.
That being said, the Brewers are not going to be able to come to an agreement with anyone, and as a result he will become the big acquisition of the trade deadline, rather than a big offseason piece.
Jesse Crain Will Get a Big Payday
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With Joaquin Benoit off the market and Jesse Crain becoming the top reliever who's not a closer, many teams are vying for him to lead their bullpen. He wants to become a closer, and I think he's earned that.
It won't happen with the Twins, but it will happen, and whoever signs Crain will be paying big bucks for his three career saves.
Cliff Lee Will Return to the Rangers
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"So Dan, you're saying that not only will the Rangers acquire Greinke, but that they'll outbid the Yankees and keep their star pitcher? Really?"
Yes.
Rafael Soriano Will Be Overpaid
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Soriano is coming off a career year and, understandably, wants to cash in. It will not be a mistake for whoever decides to grab him, as he will post good numbers.
It remains to be seen if he'll be worth the paycheck he gets, which will easily be eight figures a year, and I think it will be more than someone who's closed two seasons should get.
Yankees Will Make Bids on Crawford and Werth
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The Yankees are solid enough in the corner outfield spots that they're not going to sign Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth. That being said, they're certainly going to make bids on them. It will be more strategic than anything to boost the totals for the Red Sox and Angels and keep them occupied.
The Mets Will Shop Jose Reyes
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David Wright and Jose Reyes are not going anywhere; the two are the cornerstones of the Mets' lineup. That being said, the Mets are going to at least try to see what they could get for Reyes and see if a trade would actually be worthwhile to them.
Nothing will come of it, though everyone will treat it as done when it pops up.
Paul Konerko Is Staying
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When a team has Minnesota and a suddenly far better Detroit team in the same division, they're going to keep their star players. Relax, White Sox fans. Paul Konerko will be re-signed; he fits in too well there.
Albert Pujols Will Be Signed to a Record-Breaking Deal
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The only bold part of this is that he still has a year left on his deal, yet he'll already be wrapped up. While Jeter and nearly every other ballplayer isn't worth $25 million per, Pujols would probably be the exception.
I don't know exactly what he would be getting (likely 10 years and upwards of $25 million per), but it would be the largest contract ever, and hopefully it will stay that way.
The Mainers Will Have a Quiet Offseason
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When a team has as bad an offense as the Mariners, you'd expect them to make a move. With the other three teams in the division buying and selling like they're on Wall Street, the Mariners will be going the other way, building from within.
It's probably their best bet to get hitting talent; at most they'll grab one of the many mid-level power bats, like Lyle Overbay.
Carlos Zambrano Will Covertly Be Shopped, but Will Stay
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After Carlos Zambrano's great second half, the Cubs are going to search around and see if anyone's willing to grab their pitcher. That being said, none of the offers will be good enough for the Cubs, and as a result he will stay in Chicago.
Next offseason, however, will be a different story, as he'll be down to one guaranteed year left.
Miguel Tejada Will Be a Cardinal
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While the Giants and Padres seem to be the main two teams in the equation for acquiring Tejada, he will end up on the Cardinals. It's too perfect a fit; they need infield help, and he's a viable insurance policy for Brendan Ryan and David Freese.
The Reds Will Make No Noise
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The Reds are not losing any major players to free agency. Yes, they lost Aaron Harang and Orlando Cabrera, but they have replacements for them. It may not be common for a playoff team to not make that extra push, but it could very well work in the Reds' favor.
The Rockies Will Make a Panic Move
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The Rockies have shown interest in many players and are trying to acquire some. By year's end, they will not have made a splash, and as a result they will end up overpaying for a player or two still on the market in January.
There will likely be many this year, so the Rockies won't necessarily be left with nobodies, but it will not be as good a fit as they'd like.
Jim Thome Will Remain with the Twins
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Thome's gotta be tired of moving around this late in his career. He's revitalized himself in Minnesota and remains a good home run hitter.
Although he's a free agent, he isn't really being discussed, and for good reason; there's nothing to suggest that he would be going anywhere else. He fits well in Minnesota, so why not finish his career with the Twins?
Jamie Moyer Will Sign with Atlanta
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When the really old retire, they tend to wrap up their careers in Atlanta. Julio Franco did so, as did Phil Niekro. Jamie Moyer will be the next on that list.
Moyer won't play much, given that he'll be recovering over the offseason from an elbow injury, but he will give it one more go in the majors before retiring.
Tim Wakefield Will Retire
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This will be unexpected when it happens, as many see him wrapping up his contract rather than retiring, but he had a bad 2010, and he loves the Red Sox too much to try to force himself in the rotation if he can no longer pitch effectively.
It will happen late in the offseason, likely during spring training, but a solid career will come to an end.
Derrek Lee Will Be Bought at a Bargain
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Derrek Lee has struggled the past couple seasons, and as a result he won't be getting the contract he would have deserved two or three years ago.
Nonetheless, someone will sign him at a discount in hopes that he returns to his former glory, whether it's the Atlanta Braves or another team willing to take a shot (maybe he'll be one of the Orioles' many signings).
The Rest of 2010 Will Be Relatively Quiet
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This year has been a game-changer for Major League Baseball. With most of the top free agents playing similar positions, and with players such as Derek Jeter having slow progress, this will certainly be a fairly long offseason.
It's good for those teams that have to wait for things to work out; usually they would be the ones left in the dust.
Most Improved Team: Detroit Tigers
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Once everything has been done and the smoke has cleared, the Tigers will emerge as a force in the American League, let alone the Central.
Their pitching will be good enough, and their offense will be downright scary with Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Brandon Inge, Adam Dunn and Jhonny Peralta, all of whom are hitters first and foremost, among others.
Add in Joaquin Benoit on top of this to make their pitching staff stronger, and that's a great team.
Most Hurt Team: Tampa Bay Rays
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How do you work around losing Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena and a sizable chunk of your bullpen?
Unfortunately, that's not possible. The Rays had a nice run, but it's time for rebuilding mode—unless they shock us and make some great moves.
Best Pickup That Won't Be Discussed Much: Jorge De La Rosa
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Jorge De La Rosa will be getting a large payday, one that he will be deserving of. Many teams are looking at him and the Pirates have been thrown about as a contender, as have many other teams.
Whoever does sign him to a long-term deal will be glad they did—even if the public shrugs it off at first.
Most Overhyped Pickup: Adam Dunn
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Adam Dunn is being heralded as the best bat in the free agent market and one of the best pickups. When he is signed, it will be covered nonstop, with comparisons to other greats being made as everyone looks to see what kind of deal he got.
Dunn is a great power hitter, but he's not a guy that's going to be the difference maker between making the playoffs or not. It will be a good pickup for whoever gets him, but it will be overplayed.
Derek Jeter Is Not Going Anywhere
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Many writers left and right are writing up Jeter's top destinations, which teams he would be best on and the like.
It's all irrelevant, as Jeter is going to remain on the Yankees. He means too much to the franchise, and he's too big a name for him to walk. He's not going anywhere, no matter how bad things may get.
Matt Kemp Will Remain a Dodger
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Matt Kemp is a name that has been popping up a lot on the trade rumors front. Alas, he struggled this season, so even if the Dodgers did want to trade him, it would be difficult to find a suitor. The best they can hope for is an improvement in his performance next year.
Carlos Quentin Will Be Traded
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If Justin Upton is not traded in the end, then the market will suddenly open up for the White Sox and Carlos Quentin. The current rumors say that the White Sox are not shopping him, and they wouldn't just yet; it's too early.
Later on though, the Phillies may try to acquire him if Werth leaves, and it may be too good an offer for the Sox to pass up.
The Mets Will Not Make an Offer on Jeter
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A major rumor going around now is that the Mets are showing interest in Jeter and will try to make an offer to him. This won't happen.
The infield is the one thing the Mets have locked in pretty well, and Jeter would be a bad fit. Besides, image-wise that just would not look good for Jeter. It's smoke and mirrors to make a story, and it will disappear soon.
Colby Rasmus Will Be Discussed All Offseason
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Colby Rasmus will remain a Cardinal. That's not going to stop teams from making offers and speculation from occurring though.
The Marlins tried to get Colby Rasmus in a trade, which did not come close to occurring, and the Braves have tossed his name around as well. As recently as a few days ago, three new teams popped up expressing interest.
Needless to say, this will continue popping up not only throughout the offseason, but probably on and off during next season as well.
The American League East Will Become Downright Scary
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You already have the Yankees, who are always a force with their hitting. The Rays will still have Evan Longoria and could make some moves to stay competitive. The Red Sox will get Crawford or Werth and others, and as long as injuries don't hurt them, they'll be much better this year.
The Blue Jays and Orioles, however, will also be much improved. The Blue Jays are searching around for more power, and the Orioles are going to be buyers.
Saying that all five teams will go over .500 is a silly prediction, but four of them over 80 wins? That's more than possible. After all, it happened last year.
