Fantasy Football Spin on the Best and Worst Performers of Week 12

Each week at FFSpin.com we take a look at the most surprising break out and break down performances and analyze the short and long term fantasy football implications.

Here are the performances that stood out in Week 12 and what they mean...

The GOOD…

Matt Forte – The Eagles made Forte look good.  He is not nearly as good as his 14-carry, 117-yard performance against the Birds would indicate. 

The Bears managed to take advantage of an Eagles defense that was compensating for the absence of Asante Samuel by playing safeties off the line and focusing on stopping the pass—not that it worked or anything.  Forte also exploited their over pursuing nature.  This performance actually pushes Forte over 4.0 yards per carry—a number that has been elusive for the third year back. 

Forte owners should be a little concerned that this week marked a reversal in the trend of the Bears running the ball more.  In the three games leading up to this week, the team had averaged 36 running attempts, a whopping number for a Mike Martz offense.  Their variance is probably attributable to the fact that Eagles secondary was so vulnerable.

Final Spin: Shop him.  In Week’s 15 and 16, the all important playoff weekends, the Bears face the Vikings and Jets, very unfavorable matchups.  If you can capitalize on the combination of a desperate owner and the residue of a big game, do it.  Forte seems fairly safe as the Bears starter of the future.  In keeper/dynasty leagues he is a high end RB#3.

Jonathan Stewart - Stewart looked strong in his return rushing 12 times for 98 yards.  Mike Goodson still saw more carries and was the team’s leading receiver with eight receptions for 80 yards. The Panthers look like they will be a true RBBC, but considering they favor Goodson in the passing game, we think he has more value than Stewart for the remainder of this season. 

This week, Goodson got 14 carries to Stewart’s 12.  That split may have been a product of missed time for Stewart and the team’s need to come from behind and pass the ball.  Next week will tell the tale.

Final Spin:  Stewart’s value is limited.  Best case scenario is that he gets more carries than Goodson but not enough to consistently produce starting numbers every week.  Goodson has made someone expendable.  DeAngelo Williams is in his contract year and either he or Stewart will not be back with the team in 2011.  Stewart may be traded in the offseason.  Stewart’s value depends on where he plays.

Hines Ward – The old man still has it left in him.  You can’t simply write off his seven-catch, 107-yard performance as simply a product of playing the Bills.  The Bills actually have the ninth ranked pass defense in the league.  It looks like Ward has fully recovered from the concussion he suffered in Week 10, and this game may have been closer to the norm for the rest of the season from the Ward/Roethlisberger connection.

Final Spin: Ward has a tough schedule coming up.  Every team he faces through Week 16 ranks in the top 15 in pass defense and two are in the top 10.  There should be owners looking to bolster their playoff roster, and we recommend shopping Ward right away.  Next year will be Ward’s 14th season.  Obviously, his keeper/dynasty value is limited, but he should have at least one more good year in him.

Jason Witten – Witten finally looked like the top tight end people counted on when they drafted him in the early rounds of fantasy drafts.  In the three games leading up to the Thanksgiving Day contest, Witten had eight catches for 99 yards.  He hauled in 10 passes for 99 yards on turkey day and was Kitna’s favorite target for the first time since Halloween.  Maybe it has something to do with Kitna only looking Witten’s way on holidays.

Final Spin: We think this represents a turning point for Witten.  He is not a big TD guy, but in our estimation, he will be among the leading TEs in PPR leagues from here on out.  As a keeper/dynasty option, he is border line top five at the position.

Maurice Morris – He filled in admirably for a hobbled Jahvid Best who’s turf toe injuries have limited his ability to cut and his speed—his two biggest attributes.  At this point, the Lions realize they aren’t going to win the Super Bowl this year, and they should put Best on the shelf to heal. 

They probably won’t do that, but they should.  Morris only got nine carries, but he made the most of them accumulating 55 yards and two TDs.  Inexplicably, the team gave an ineffective Aaron Brown 13 carries.  Maybe after totaling on 36 yards, they will wise up and increase Morris’ work load.

Final Spin:  Pay close attention to what the Lions have to say about Jahvid Best’s health and how they may use their RBs.  If Best plays, Morris can’t be relied on as a starter.  If he is out, he may still have to deal with a split with Brown.  Week 13 will be tough either way.  The Bears are stingy against the run.  Morris has very little value from a keeper/dynasty perspective.

Danario Alexander – In the two full games the injury-prone rookie has played, he has eight receptions 167 yards and a TD.  If he could stay healthy, he has the kind of talent to regularly post performances like his four catches for 95 yards he posted in Week 12.  The Rams have a Wes Welker—like target in Danny Amendola, but they do not have the big target that can go up and get balls and win battles for jump balls.  Alexander has the attributes to be that guy, but he simply cannot stay healthy.

Final Spin: If you have roster space, pick Alexander up.  He is likely to be inconsistent for the remainder of the season, but he also has the potential to have a breakout performance any week.  Three of the Rams next four matchups are favorable, Arizona, Kansas City, and San Francisco.  You want to find room for this guy on a dynasty roster.  He could amount to something big for a very small investment.

Derrick Mason – Anquan Boldin owners should be just about ready to hit the panic button.  His production has really tailed off of late, and he has less than 30 receiving yards in three of the last four contests.  Meanwhile, Mason has TDs in three of the last four games.  He is not posting big reception or yardage numbers, but he has become a reliable flex option again. 

You could use him as a WR#3, although it may be a stretch.  In Week 13, the Ravens face the Steelers against whom Mason posted six catches for 80 yards in Week 4.   They follow that up with Houston who is ranked dead last in the league in pass defense.

Final Spin – Mason is worth inserting in your line up for Week 13, 14, and 16.  He has a tough matchup against the Saints in Week 15.  As a keeper/dynasty prospect, he is a WR#4.

Jacoby Ford – This guy is lightening fast.  He led the Raiders in rushing and receiving in Week 12.  He added a kickoff return TD to his impressive receiving stats (4/108/1) and 20 rushing yards.  The rookie is a threat to score any time he touches the ball.  One of the most promising stats is that he was targeted by the team, leading 10 times in Week 12.  That stat is indicative of the fact that he is to play a central role in the passing game and that the QB is looking to him often.

Final Spin: Don’t expect him to post great numbers against the Chargers in Week 13, although he could benefit from the team likely playing from behind.  He should be considered a low end WR#3 for the remainder of the season, and as a rookie with skill, he should be coveted by dynasty league owners.

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