New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Breaking Down the Matchups
The New England Patriots suffered a tough loss to the Cleveland Browns last week, and now head to Heinz Field to face the Pittsburgh Steelers hot off a Monday Night Football win over the Cincinnati Bengals.
The two teams are 6-2 headed into this game, so we're clearly seeing two of the league's (current) top dogs going head-to-head.
But what will impact the outcome of this game? How do the match-ups break down?
Here's my take.
Patriots Passing Game Vs. Steelers Pass Defense
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This is arguably the heavyweight main event match-up of the game.
The Patriots' no. 2 offense isn't doing any one thing very well, but is doing a lot of things okay. This is truly the reincarnation of the 2001 Patriots offense, with a different star every week. Still, without anybody who can consistently win one-on-one match-ups, the Patriots could be in for a long day against a vicious Steelers front seven.
The Steelers have the no. 1 defense in the league for a reason, but if there's a weakness, it's the pass. Until Monday night, they had given up 300 yards through the air five consecutive times. They rank 24th in yards allowed per game, but have only given up eight passing touchdowns on the season.
Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden could potentially be exploited on intermediate and deep routes, but the Patriots don't have anyone who can consistently stretch the field.
This battle will come down to the trenches. The Steelers have 24 sacks, ranking fifth in the league in that category, while the Patriots have only given up 13 (seventh). This defense relies on its ability to create mismatches on the front line and exploit weaknesses with confusion. Logan Mankins can't afford to have another sub-par game like he had last week.
Advantage: Patriots
Patriots Running Game Vs. Steelers Run Defense
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I can only think of so many ways to say "mismatch" before I start breaking into foreign tongues.
The Patriots have gotten a mixed bag from their running game, but ultimately, it's been improved over last year (at least on the surface) and ranks 15th in yards with 857 and fifth in touchdowns with eight.
The Steelers? They're only first across the board in rush defense. No big deal. Averaging only 2.6 yards allowed per run, opponents have just about stopped running at them entirely, as they also rank first in rush attempts against them.
Their interior linebackers are some of the best in football, and Belichick knows this. "I think you see a lot of speed and athleticism inside with Farrior and Timmons. Both those guys can run, they're very athletic, they can cover a lot of ground."
The Patriots will need to run occasionally to keep the Steelers' defense on its heels, but they need to be smart about when they do it. Too many short first-down runs that result in 2nd-and-long will put the pass attack under the spotlight, which is exactly where they don't want to be when facing such a vicious pass rush.
Advantage: Steelers
Steelers Passing Game Vs. Patriots Pass Defense
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With the 29th-ranked pass defense, it appears anyone can have a good day against the Patriots, but piling on the yards hasn't been successful for every quarterback. Chad Henne had over 300 yards but threw three interceptions, and Brett Favre had a very impressive first half until he started turning the ball over.
The Steelers' pass attack has improved dramatically with Ben Roethlisberger back under center. He's thrown for 917 yards and six touchdowns in four games, but he has thrown three interceptions. The Patriots have shown the ability to capitalize on poor throws, and have picked off nine passes this season, ranking 10th in the league.
He'll have to avoid making those costly mistakes against an opportunistic Patriots defense.
Roethlisberger is one of the best quarterbacks in the league at keeping plays alive. Despite all that, the Patriots could create pressure with just three or four men rushing. The offensive line is still susceptible in pass protection, and has notoriously allowed Roethlisberger to get hit. The problem is taking him down.
If the Patriots are able to not just get to Roethlisberger, but bring him down with just three or four guys rushing, I like their chances at keeping Hines Ward and Mike Wallace bottled up. The Patriots better think twice if they think they're doing themselves any favors by putting Gary Guyton on Heath Miller, though.
Advantage: Patriots
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Steelers Running Game Vs. Patriots Run Defense
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The Patriots looked like a respectable run defense headed into their game against the Browns, ranking 11th in the league, but left Cleveland Browns Stadium ranked 21st against the run. Vince Wilfork was handily quieted by Alex Mack, and several others were caught out of position or just blown right over by Hillis and co.
The Steelers boast the league's 12th-ranked rush offense, and Rashard Mendenhall is having a great season with 702 yards and seven touchdowns. He had a very solid performance against the Bengals, putting up 99 yards and a touchdown on 22 tries.
Regardless, Rashard Mendenhall is no Peyton Hillis. Hillis is a hulking runner who gets his jollies plowing through defenses, but Mendenhall's skill set pertains more to his agility and speed. The Steelers offense isn't the same type of offense as the Cleveland Browns, where they'll just line it up and try to run it down your throat. They're capable of doing that, but they want to keep things fresh and keep defenses on their heels (and subsequently, their toes).
Advantage: Steelers
Special Teams
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New England's special teams unit has been turned upside down over the past few days. Stephen Gostkowski suffered a leg injury against the Browns and will miss two games. The team has brought in Shayne Graham as his replacement. Graham's better years are behind him, but he has a good reputation for kicking at Heinz Field, which is typically a difficult stadium to kick at. He's nine of 11 on field goal attempts at Heinz Field, and has made all of his PATs.
The Patriots also released long snapper Jake Ingram, who has had several low snaps skip off the ground into the hands of either the place holder or punter Zoltan Mesko. Luckily, Mesko has been able to recover from those and hasn't had a punt officially blocked yet, but you can only roll the dice so many times.
Mesko has had a couple of bad games, but his good performances have been very good, and he averages 43.5 yards per punt at present.
Steelers punter Daniel Sepulveda continues to improve, and currently boasts an average punt of 46.1 yards, and hasn't had a single game under 40 yards per punt this season.
Their kicker, however, could use some work. Jeff Reed has already missed six field goal attempts, including one in each of the past two games, and two in a home loss to the Ravens in Week Four.
In the return game, the Steelers seem to hold a big advantage. They net 27.3 yards per return and only give up 21.5, while the Patriots average 23.6 yards per return and give up 24.1. The Patriots have one thing the Steelers don't—Brandon Tate, an explosive kick returner who's already taken two back for touchdowns this season.
Still, against a very sound special teams group that hasn't given up a touchdown all year, he may not be the game-changer he's been in the past.
Advantage: Steelers
Coaching
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Bill Belichick is 24-2 with the Patriots in 26 losses, a record that spans back to 2004. I'm not sure how many times they've had to face one of the best teams in the league coming off a loss, though. It may help—if at all—that the Patriots have one extra day to rest and prepare for this game. If nothing else, he'll have a huge chip on his shoulder after the beating his team took against the Browns.
Mike Tomlin is already putting his name among the best coaches in the league, with several impressive wins over tough opponents this season already. From the way his teams have played over the past few seasons, it's clear they respond favorably to him in the locker room and on the practice field. His teams have done nothing but play hard and fight for a win right to the final whistle. What more could he ask for?
Belichick mentioned in his press conference on Tuesday that the Steelers don't do a whole lot different schematically. They basically line up, do their thing, and dare you to try and beat them. Belichick is great if he knows what you're going to do (hold your SpyGate jokes, please).
Advantage: Patriots
Prediction
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The six match-ups I've listed break down evenly between the two teams. This will be a close one down to the final whistle.
In the end, I think it will be up to the Patriots defense to make a big stop on Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense. Roethlisberger's had some good games since coming back, but I wouldn't rule out New England's ability to create turnovers.
In that sense, it will be up to Belichick to build a game plan for this defense to hold its ground a week after being pounded into the ground.
Prediction: Patriots 23—Steelers 21
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