Cubs Managerial Search Is a Two-Horse Race: Handicapping the Next Cubs Skipper
The final trial runs have been completed, and the horses are on the track and ready for the home stretch. So who will come spinning out of the turn as the one to beat in the race to be the Cubs' next manager?
This search, led by Cubs GM Jim Hendry, has been a bit befuddling. Owner Tom Ricketts told the media that the next Cubs manager had to understand the “Cubs thing.” In other words, had to intimately understand the fans' frustration with Chicago's failure to make the World Series since the soldiers came home after the last World War, as well as the whole silly goat curse baloney.
Based on Lou Piniella’s reaction over the years, it was clear that he wasn’t prepared to handle the media scrutiny and the pressure of managing a team surrounded by negativity and doubt.
Yet Hendry sent Eric Wedge to be interviewed by Ricketts, and his first interest was Fredi Gonzalez. So much for listening to your boss.
While I don’t necessarily buy the fact that the next Cubs skipper has to “get it” and thus can’t be an outsider, I do agree that the next manager must have a lot of energy and be prepared for a fanbase that is unlikely to be very patient with the semi-rebuilding effort that the Cubs will be trotting out in 2011 and beyond.
Now, I call it “semi-rebuilding” for two reasons. One, they don’t have the true major league-ready, impact-type prospects to go to a full youth movement. Second, they have long-term, expensive contracts with veteran players that they are unlikely to be able to move.
Still, guys like Bob Brenly told the Cubs thanks but no thanks, in part because they know it’s a no-win situation. With the major league payroll shrinking*, there is little chance the Cubs are contenders next season. Yet the fans are hungry for a title.
In any event, whoever the next manager will be already has a pitching coach and hitting instructor in place. So, let's examine the racing form and set the odds for the next Cubs manager.
*Ricketts said the overall payroll will be flat, but that some resources will be shifted toward player development, which equates to a lower major league payroll for next season.
Joe Girardi at 100:1
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Local Chicago product and former Cubs catcher Joe Girardi is the long shot of this race. He is in the midst of another title run with the New York Yankees, and if they repeat as World Series winners, the Yanks won’t let him go.
In fact, some sources have already said that even if the Yanks did not bring him back, Girardi won’t sign with the Cubs.
It’s hard to envision Girardi voluntarily leaving such a good thing in New York.
Bob Melvin at 25:1
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Melvin lacks that insider background that Ricketts said was so important, plus there has been no confirmation that he has met with Ricketts. But when the season ended, he was said to be a candidate, though the former Seattle Mariners and Arizona Diamondbacks manager appears to be a long shot at this point.
Eric Wedge at 10:1
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Wedge is also an outsider, but he has more of an inside track because of Hendry’s relationship with the former Indians skipper and Wedge’s admitted “burning desire” to manage again the big leagues.
He managed the Cleveland Indians from 2003 to 2009. He was the American League Manager of the Year in 2007. The fact that he’s interviewed multiple times with Hendry and has met with Ricketts means he’s the best of the non-insider candidates to manage the team.
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Mike Quade at 3:1
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Quade was praised by Ricketts in his letter to season ticket holders for the job he did guiding the team to a 24-13 record after taking over for Piniella. He was also praised by players such as Ryan Dempster for his communication skills.
Quade has a ton of minor league managerial experience as well and was, of course, the Cubs third base coach when he was tabbed by Hendry in a surprise move to be the interim manager of the team.
It will be hard for Ricketts not to choose Quade, though he knows that Sandberg has the adoration of many Cubs fans. In fact, Ryno is the only candidate with a better chance of getting the job than Quade at this point.
Ryne Sandberg at 2:1
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The odds-on favorite is former Cubs great and Hall of Famer Sandberg, who has seemingly paid his dues by being willing to ride the bus in the minor leagues again.
Sandberg seems to have transformed his personality. He is known as a somewhat fiery manager, having been ejected from many games over the years and once suspended. Ryno has been successful as a manager, too. This year, at Iowa, he was the Pacific Coast League Manager of the Year, though his team fell just short of making the playoffs.
As a player, Sandberg seldom had a lucid thought. I would never have envisioned this guy to be a manager anywhere. But you have to give the man his props. In addition to being relatively young and familiar with the pressures surrounding the Cubs, he is known as a teacher and this ability was also said to be very critical by Ricketts.
So he is the favorite, though he is moving up in class a bit. Meanwhile, if Ryno isn’t chosen as Cubs manager, don’t expect him to stick around, unless it’s as a bench coach.
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