NLCS Schedule 2010: Game-by-Game Predictions for Giants vs. Phillies
Yesterday the San Francisco Giants came from behind to beat the Braves 3-2 and advance to the National League Championship Series. It was their second such victory in as many days and the fourth one run game of the four game series.
The path for the Philadelphia Phillies was far smoother. Roy Halladay threw the second post-season no-hitter of all-time, and Cole Hamels tossed a five-hit shutout as the Phillies easily swept the Cincinnati Reds.
This series will mark the first time these two teams have met in the playoffs and we should be in for fireworks. Both teams have deep rotations filled with proven pitchers, and both teams have areas of weakness.
While San Francisco’s line-up produced the fewest runs of any playoff team and lack a true middle of the order presence, Philadelphia has a bullpen full of talented pitchers who have struggled in the clutch. So who will win this epic match up? Read on for a game by game analysis.
Expected Line-Ups
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Phillies Giants
CF Shane Victorino CF Andres Torres
3B Placido Polanco 2B Freddy Sanchez
2B Chase Utley 1B Aubrey Huff
1B Ryan Howard C Buster Posey
RF Jayson Werth LF Pat Burrell
SS Jimmy Rollins SS Juan Uribe
LF Raul Ibanez 3B Pablo Sandoval
C Carlos Ruiz RF Cody Ross
Who has the advantage at each position?
C—SF
1B—Philly
2B—Philly
3B—Philly
SS—Philly
LF—SF
CF—Tie
RF—Philly
Game 1: Tim Lincecum vs. Roy Halladay
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Arguably the two best pitchers in the National League square off in game one after dominating their competition in the first round. We all know about Halladay’s no-no, but let’s not sleep on Lincecum. Timmy threw a two-hit shutout of his own complete with 14 strikeouts.
Since struggling through August with an 0-5 record and 7.82 ERA, Lincecum has been unhittable. In seven games since Lincecum has gone 6-1 with a 1.60 ERA and 66 K’s. While his velocity is down from last season, Lincecum has regained control of his filthy changeup and has been baffling hitters ever since.
This epic pitchers duel pits last year’s Cy Young winner against this season’s likely recipient. Halladay has given up a total of three base runners in his last two games (both CG shutouts), but was rocked during his last outing against San Fran (7 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, Loss). Look for the Giants to take game 1 in a low scoring affair.
Prediction: 3-2 Giants.
Game 2: Matt Cain vs. Roy Oswalt
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After a pitchers duel in Game 1, I fully expect the bats to awaken for Game 2. Although Roy Oswalt had a phenomenal half season with Philly (7-1, 1.74 ERA and 73 K/82 1/3 IP), he didn’t look great in a no-decision against the Reds.
As for Matt Cain? He’s been a bad luck loser all season. Despite a fastball that averages 92 mph, wicked slider and a killer change-up, Cain barely posted a winning record. With a 13-11 mark and a 3.14 ERA, Cain was consistently the recipient of poor offensive support.
This is a game where I expect both pitchers to throw about six innings while giving up a few runs. Cain may have the better stuff, but against a tough Philly line-up that features powerful lefties like Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, Oswalt will throw the better game.
Prediction: 6-4 Phillies to tie the series 1-1.
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Game 3: Jonathan Sanchez vs. Cole Hamels
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It’s not every day you see two pitchers of this caliber pitching Game 3. Just two years ago Hamels was the ace pitcher and World Series MVP for his championship ball club.
After winning the title, Hamels saw his ERA rise over a full point in 2009. This year? He’s back to his dominating ways.
The lanky 6’3" lefty with a fastball that hits the mid 90’s was terrific this year, posting a 3.06 ERA and 211 strikeouts in 208 innings. For Sanchez, the road to success was more progressive.
After posting a 5.01 ERA in 2008, Sanchez dropped his ERA nearly a full point to 4.24. Anybody that watched this hard throwing lefty knew he had barely scratched the surface on his potential. That’s why it came as a no surprise to many baseball experts when Sanchez turned in an All-star worthy performance.
In fact, Sanchez numbers were almost identical to Hamels with a 13-9 record, 3.07 ERA and 205 punch outs in 193 innings. On the season, Sanchez allowed only a .181 batting average against lefties, and should be able to silence the big southpaw boppers of Philadelphia.
Prediction: 4-2 Giants to take a 2-1 series lead.
Game 4: Madison Bumgarner vs. Joe Blanton
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If there is any time for these hitters to get a break it’s Game 4. Madison Bumgarner, one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, has been a revelation for San Francisco. With a 3.00 ERA, he actually had the lowest ERA on the staff.
In his post-season debut he sparkled again holding the Braves to two earned runs over six innings of work in a decisive game four win. However, it’s worth noting that he is only 21 years old with only half a season of Major League experience under his belt.
For Philadelphia, sending Blanton to the hill may be a mistake. If they are in fact trailing the series 2-1 at this point, seeing Halladay pitch on short rest would come as no surprise. The former Oakland Athletic went 9-6 this season with a 4.82 ERA while allowing opposing hitters to hit .291 against him.
San Francisco may not have the best offense, but they are surely capable of manufacturing runs off the roly-poly righty. Blanton’s 89 mile an hour fastball was teed off on this season, as was his subpar change. If Blanton gets the call the Phillies could find themselves in hot water.
Prediction: 7-4 Giants to extend the series lead to 3-1.
Game 5: Roy Halladay vs. Tim Lincecum
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Assuming neither of these pitchers get bumped up to pitch on short rest, their duel will have an encore presentation for Game 5. It’s worth noting that Lincecum faced the Phillies only once this year. Back on April 28th, Lincecum went 8 1/3 innings giving up two earned runs and striking out eleven.
However, it’s also worth pointing out the offensive disparity between these two teams. While the Phillies hit .260 as a team with 772 runs and 166 dingers, the Giants hit .257 and scored 75 fewer runs. The Phils also crushed San Fran in the steals department, nabbing 108 bases to the Giants 55.
After seeing Lincecum once, the Phils will be able to time their swings better and more adeptly differentiate the change and heater.
Prediction: 5-2 Phillies to bring the series to 3-2.
Game 6: Matt Cain vs. Roy Oswalt
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For some reason, I get the feeling that one of the Oswalt, Cain outings will produce the most runs scored. The Phillies offense has so much talent with former MVP’s Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins as well as Jayson Werth (.296 average with 27 homers and a .921 OPS) and the Flying Hawaiian, Shane Victorino.
In Cain’s last start against Philly, he took the loss after giving up five runs in six innings (although only two were earned).
I predict that this game will come down to the bullpen and the typically dominant Brian Wilson (1.81 ERA, 48 saves and 93 K’s in 72 2/3 IP) will see his scorching heaters crushed by one of Phillies dynamic fastball hitters.
Prediction: Phillies win 6-5 to even the series at three games apiece.
Game 7: Jonathan Sanchez vs. Cole Hamels
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These two nearly identical righties will face off in the off-chance this game goes seven games, and believe me both teams will take their chances with their respective pitchers.
Sanchez has been arguably the staff’s best pitcher after the all-star break posting a 2.61 ERA and recording an astounding 101 strikeouts in 89 2/3 innings.
For Philly, they will let the former World Series MVP take the mound at home in his decisive Game 7. Based on Hamels track record they should feel very confident. Hamels was hit hard in his two starts against San Fran this season allowing nine earned runs in just 11 innings, however like Sanchez, Hamels has been much improved since the break.
In 15 starts since all-star weekend, Hamels went 5-4 with a miniscule 2.23 ERA. Considering the Phillies 52-29 home record you have to like local team’s chances.
Prediction: Phillies win 5-3 to win the series and the pennant.
NLCS MVP: Jayson Werth
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With the Phillies taking down the series, there will be a few possible MVP candidates. Roy Halladay will pitch two or three games and will certainly make his presence felt. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are always big game threats as well.
But the player who will shine this series is Jayson Werth.
At 6’5 220 pounds, Jayson Werth is a masher. He smashed 27 home runs this season after hitting 36 in ’09. He’s also a righty which should help considering both Bumgarner and Sanchez are southpaws. Over his eight year career, Werth has hit .292 against lefties while only hitting .263 against righties.
He also hits a home run once every 15 at bats against lefties while homering every 25 at bats against righties.
Werth bats fifth in the line-up directly behind Utley and Howard and will have no shortage of RBI opportunity. Let’s see if the man who looks like Thor can wield hit bat with god-like strength.
Biggest Goat: Pablo Sandoval
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In their first round victory over Atlanta, the Giants scored a grand total of 11 runs. For those of you without a math skills (or a calculator) that works out to fewer than three runs per game.
While I’d love to bash Barry Zito for failing to even crack the post-season rotation despite an enormous Scott Boras-negotiated contract (7 years, $126 million), pitching is not the area of concern for San Fran. If the Giants lose, much of the blame may be placed on the Kung Fu Panda himself, Pablo Sandoval.
After a breakthrough season where the portly corner infielder batted.330 with 25 home runs, Sandoval hit a big time sophomore slump. Sandoval managed only a .268 average with 13 home runs and saw hit OPS fall by over .200 points! The 250 pound Venezuelan was dropped from the clean-up spot to the eighth spot after pitchers started realizing he would swing at anything.
If Sandoval displays the same lack of patience during the post-season as he did during the regular season, fans and announcers alike will heavily scrutinize the switch-hitting Sandoval.
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