MLB Playoff Predictions: Forecasting Every Game of All Four Division Series
Well, it's official: the 2010 MLB playoff schedule is all set.
When the Braves and Giants won their games on Sunday, they clinched the final two postseason spots still up for grabs.
Now, the real work begins. Regular season success is one thing; winning in the postseason is something decidedly different. Who has what it takes to win it all in 2010?
We're breaking down every matchup of the four division series, telling you not just who will win each game, but why. Let's begin with Wednesday's games.
Game 1 ALDS: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays, Wed. 1:57 P.M. EST, TBS
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The Matchup: Cliff Lee (12-9, 3.18 ERA) vs. David Price (19-6, 2.72 ERA)
Why Texas Will Win: The Rangers have one of the best offenses in all of baseball, led by MVP candidate Josh Hamilton, hard-hitting right fielder Nelson Cruz, and a revitalized Vladimir Guerrero at DH.
As the team's lone shutdown starter, Cliff Lee gives Texas a chance to win against even the most dominating pitchers.
Why Tampa Bay Will Win: David Price. The Rays' fire-balling young lefty blossomed into a full-fledged ace in 2010, dominating the AL all year long.
Tampa's got a star this year in young third baseman Evan Longoria, and has the speed to play small ball, although they can knock the ball around pretty well, too.
What Will Happen: Don't expect a lot of runs in Game 1 from either side, as both pitchers are fully capable of shutting down the opposing offense completely.
The Verdict: Tampa Bay 2, Texas 1. Rays lead series 1-0.
Game 1 NLDS: Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies, Wed. 5:07 P.M. EST, TBS
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The Matchup: Roy Halladay (21-11, 2.44 ERA) vs. Edinson Volquez (4-3, 4.31 ERA)
Why Philadelphia Will Win: The Phils have one of the most dominant starters in baseball heading to the mound in Game 1.
Halladay has been lights out in the National League this season, and, were it not for a stretch when the offense stopped scoring for him, he could have won 30 games. There's plenty of pop in these bats, led by first baseman Ryan Howard and second baseman Chase Utley.
Reds starter Edinson Volquez has run hot and cold in his starts since returning from Tommy John surgery, and his control is still a little bit off the mark.
Why Cincinnati Will Win: The Reds' offense is deep and balanced, led by Triple Crown contender and likely NL MVP Joey Votto. Cincinnati slugged 188 home runs in 2010, most in baseball, and in the bandbox that is Citizens Bank Park, they should have a field day.
What Will Happen: The Phillies' streaky offense should find its stroke against the wild Volquez, while Halladay should shut the Reds' big bats down.
Final Score: Philadelphia 6, Cincinnati 2. Phillies lead 1-0.
Game 1 ALDS: New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins, Wed 8:37 P.M. EST, TBS
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The Matchup: CC Sabathia (21-7 3.18 ERA) v. Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.42 ERA)
Why New York Will Win: The Yankees have historically owned Minnesota in the playoffs, having won nine of their last 11 playoff games against the Twins.
CC Sabathia is as good of an ace as there is in baseball, and he's been dominant against the Twins in his career. Sabathia is 13-8 against Minnesota, compiling a 3.08 ERA with the Indians and Yankees.
If Minnesota doesn't have Justin Morneau back for this one, they're in deep trouble.
Why Minnesota Will Win: With a revived Francisco Liriano on the mound, anything's possible in Minnesota.
Catcher Joe Mauer is a perennial MVP candidate, and with the emergence of young players like outfielder Delmon Young and third baseman Danny Valencia, and Jim Thome's resurgence at DH, the Twins have the kind of offensive balance you need in the postseason. They could use Morneau back, but they've been doing just fine without him.
What Will Happen: This one's going to be higher scoring than you think, as neither team will be able to pull away.
Final Score: Minnesota 7, New York 5. Twins lead series 1-0.
Game 2 ALDS: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays, Thurs. 2:37 P.M. EST, TBS
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The Matchup: C.J. Wilson (15-8, 3.35 ERA) v. Matt Garza (15-10, 3.91 ERA)
Why Tampa Bay Will Win: Wilson is a converted closer, who hasn't logged this many innings in any major league season in his career. Longoria, outfielder Carl Crawford and the Rays offense is fully capable of lighting him up, and they'll be eager to do so after Cliff Lee shut them down in Game 1.
Why Texas Will Win: Rays starter Matt Garza has run hot and cold all season long. If they can get to him early, this one could get ugly really fast.
The Rangers' offense has enough pop to hang with Tampa Bay, even if it turns into a slugfest.
What Will Happen: This will be a much more offensively-driven affair than Game 1. Look for the Rangers to jump on Garza early.
Final Score: Texas 5, Tampa Bay 4. Series tied 1-1.
Game 2 ALDS: New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins, Thurs. 6:07 P.M. EST, TBS
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The Matchup: Andy Pettitte (11-3, 3.28 ERA) v. Carl Pavano (17-11, 3.72 ERA)
Why Minnesota Will Win: Pavano’s been the Twins’ stopper in 2010, getting wins when Minnesota needed them and looking excellent at Target Field for most of the year.
Andy Pettitte’s still rounding into shape after a groin injury cost him two months of the season, and the Yankees’ bullpen has question marks everywhere.
Why New York Will Win: The Yankees will be hungry to avenge Wednesday’s loss. While Pavano’s been good at home, he’s not untouchable.
Pettitte has been excellent when healthy, and even if he struggles, New York’s offense is more than capable of pulling out a win on their own.
What Will Happen: Expect a solid, but not spectacular, outing from Pavano (5.2 IP, 4 ER), and a quality start from Pettitte (7 IP, 2 ER). But watch Kerry Wood allow the Twins back into this one late.
Final Score: New York 6, Minnesota 5.
Game 1 NLDS: Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants, Thurs. 9:37 PM EST, TBS
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The Matchup: Derek Lowe (16-12, 4.00 ERA) v. Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43 ERA)
Why Atlanta Will Win: Braves’ starter Derek Lowe has been fantastic in September and October, going 5-0 with a 1.17 ERA this season. The Braves are highly motivated to win it all in manager Bobby Cox’s final season, and they’ve got the right mix of veterans (Brian McCann, Derrek Lee) and youth (Jason Heyward, Gregor Blanco Martin Prado) to do it.
Why San Francisco Will Win: Giants’ starter Tim Lincecum was thought to be having a down year, which shows how dominant he can be. This team relies heavily on it’s pitching staff, and Atlanta’s offense can be stymied relatively easily.
If San Fran’s offense can get rolling this week, they could turn into this year’s Colorado Rockies.
What Will Happen: Two streaky offenses plus two staff aces equals not many runs scored in this one.
Final Score: Atlanta 3, San Francisco 2. Braves lead series 1-0.
Game 2 NLDS: Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies, Fri 6:07 P.M. EST, TBS
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The Matchup: Bronson Arroyo (17-10, 3.88 ERA) v. Roy Oswalt (13-13, 2.76 ERA)
Why Cincinnati Will Win: Oswalt’s been excellent in Philly, but the Reds have some experience against him, having faced him for years in the NL Central. Arroyo, Cincy’s Game 2 starter, has been reliable in 2010, keeping opponents within striking distance, and Cincy has a history of come-from-behind wins in 2010.
Why Philadelphia Will Win: It’s hard to come from behind when the starting pitcher doesn’t leave the game. Oswalt has been on a massive tear since coming to Philly, and even if the Phillies’ offense can’t score many runs, it won’t take many to get the win.
What Will Happen: For the second night in a row, Philly’s starter locks down the Reds’ bats.
Final Score: Philadelphia 4, Cincinnati 1. Phillies lead series 2-0.
Game 2 NLDS: Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants, Fri 9:37 P.M. EST TBS
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The Matchup: Tommy Hanson (10-11, 3.33 ERA) v. Matt Cain (13-11, 3.14 ERA)
Why San Francisco Will Win: Hanson had a miserable stretch of baseball in late July and early August, so he’s not unhittable.
Aubrey Huff, Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey are all big-time hitters, who could cause the 24-year-old some trouble. San Fran’s bullpen is more reliable top to bottom.
Why Atlanta Will Win: Cain has run hot and cold in 2010, lowering his ERA by nearly a run in the home stretch of the regular season. Hanson has been on fire lately, posting a 1.81 ERA in the final month of the year.
If Atlanta’s bats give him run support, there’s no way he doesn’t get the win.
What Will Happen: Neither of these pitchers has gotten much run support in 2010, so the one who gets more will come out on top.
Final Score: San Francisco 4, Atlanta 2. Series tied 1-1.
Game 3 ALDS: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers, Sat. 5:09 P.M EST, TBS
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The Matchup: Wade Davis (12-10, 4.07 ERA), v. Colby Lewis (12-13, 3.72 ERA)
Why Tampa Bay Will Win: The Rays have one of their electric youngsters on the mound in Game 3.
Davis has shown how dominant he can be in his 12 wins this year. Lewis has been vulnerable to the home-run ball, giving up 21 of the long balls in 2010.
Why Texas Will Win: Davis has looked pretty bad in many of his losses this year, and has a propensity for giving up big flies of his own. Texas has been excellent at home in 2010, going 51-30.
If Vlad Guerrero hasn't hit a home run through two games, expect one here.
What Will Happen: Both starters will give up at least five runs, in what will be a high-scoring contest. Texas' offense is a little better, but not by that much.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 8, Texas 6. Rays lead series 2-1.
Game 3 ALDS: Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees, Sat, 8:37 P.M EST, TBS
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The Matchup: Brian Duensing (10-3, 2.62 ERA) v. A.J. Burnett (10-15, 5.26 ERA)
Why New York Will Win: Burnett has been a lights-out pitcher before in his career, and still has the tools to make it happen. The Yankees' offense can get to any pitcher at any time, and Duensing's making his first career postseason start at Yankee Stadium.
Why Minnesota Will Win: Duensing's been excellent this season, racking up 10 wins and a 2.62 ERA in just 13 starts in 2010.
He's been excellent at getting outs, something Burnett hasn't proven he can do this season. Minnesota's offense will be ready to gash A.J., with or without slugging first baseman Justin Morneau.
What Will Happen: A tough season continues for Burnett, who's chased in the third. The Yankees are unable to mount a comeback on Duensing and the Twins' excellent bullpen.
Final Score: Minnesota 6, New York 3. Twins lead series 2-1.
Game 3 NLDS: Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds, Sun, TBS
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Matchup: Cole Hamels (12-11, 3.06 ERA) v. Johnny Cueto (12-7, 3.64 ERA)
Why Cincinnati Will Win: The Reds' offense should find success against Hamels, the worst of Philly's triple-ace rotation. Cueto looked dominant for long stretches of 2010, and with the Phillies' propensity for striking out, he should have an excellent game.
Why Philadelphia Will Win: Hamels has amassed a 3.08 ERA in 2010, and has looked good all season. Cueto has been hit hard in several starts this year, and Philly's offense is definitely capable of sending him to the bench early.
What Will Happen: Expect the Reds' bats to wake up in Game 3, as desperation sets in.
Final Score: Cincinnati 5, Philadelphia 3. Phillies lead series 2-1.
Game 3 NLDS: San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves, Sun, TBS
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The Matchup: Jonathan Sanchez (13-9, 3.07 ERA) v. Tim Hudson (17-9, 2.83 ERA)
Why Atlanta Will Win: Sanchez has been streaky in 2010, and it's been a mystery which one will show up.
If it's bad Jonathan, Atlanta's bats will punish him. Tim Hudson has been fantastic in 2010, and should feast on San Fran's anemic offense.
Why San Francisco Will Win: Sanchez has been one of the Giants' fantastic starters down the stretch, and this team has gotten extremely good at winning low-scoring games.
What Will Happen: Don't expect either team to get much offense in this one, in what is turning into one of the lower-scoring series' of 2010.
Final Score: Atlanta 3, San Francisco 1. Atlanta leads series 2-1.
Game 4 ALDS: Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees, Sun, TBS
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The Matchup: Francisco Liriano v. CC Sabathia
Why Minnesota Will Win: This team is hungry to prove they've got what it takes to beat the Yankees.
While Sabathia's been great, he has been hittable at times in 2010. Plus, New York's offense, while formidable, has been subject to the occasional power outage. Starter Francisco Liriano would be all to happy to pull the plug.
Why New York Will Win: The Yankees are a deeper, more talented team than Minnesota on paper. With their backs to the wall, we should see some great baseball being played in the Bronx.
What Will Happen: Expect a similar game to what we saw in the opener.
Final Score: New York 3, Minnesota 2, 10 innings. Series Tied 2-2.
Game 4 ALDS: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers, Sun., TBS
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The Matchup: David Price v. Cliff Lee
Why Tampa Bay Will Win: The Rays have one of the more balanced offenses in baseball.
They don't have to hit home runs to win games, which is good, because Cliff Lee doesn't give up many of them. With their speed on the bases, they should be able to score enough runs for Price to get them a win.
Why Texas Will Win: The Rangers' offense hasn't showed signs of slowing down, and they're one of the few teams who can match Tampa's depth off the bench. Cliff Lee has been a workhorse the last few seasons, and should be able to handle an eight-inning performance, meaning no middle-relief worries.
What Will Happen: Neither side will be able to generate much offensively, and this one could go extra innings.
Final Score: Texas 4, Tampa Bay 2. Series tied, 2-2.
Game 4 NLDS: Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds, Mon, TBS
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The Matchup: Roy Halladay v. Edinson Volquez
Why Cincinnati Will Win: The Reds have been a fantastic home team in 2010, and if Volquez has a good night, this team should score enough runs to pull out a win.
Why Philadelphia Will Win: Every time Halladay pitches, the Phillies have a shot at a victory.
What Will Happen: Expect Volquez to bounce back from a shaky Game 1 with a fantastic Game 4.
Final Score: Cincinnati 5, Philadelphia 3. Series tied 2-2.
Game 4 NLDS: San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves
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The Matchup: Lincecum v. Lowe
Why San Francisco Will Win: This series is going to go back and forth, and Lincecum is a more dominant pitcher than Lowe, which makes all the difference in this series.
Why Atlanta Will Win: The Braves have a stronger offense than the Giants, and Lowe's been light's out in recent weeks.
What Will Happen: Look for San Fran to jump on Lowe early, while Lincecum throws marbles all game long.
Final Score: San Francisco 6, Atlanta 2. Series tied 2-2.
Game 5 ALDS: New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins, Tuesday, TBS
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The Matchup: Pettitte v. Pavano
Why Minnesota Will Win: Pavano has stepped up when the Twins have needed a win, especially at home, and they're going to need one here. Their offense has the capability to get to Pettitte, and their bullpen is superior to New York's.
Why New York Will Win: History says the Twins lose this series. Pettitte's been excellent against Minnesota in his career, and it remains to be seen whether Pavano can handle the pressure of a series-clinching game.
What Will Happen: Lots of offense, on both sides. Look for the bullpens to get serious work in this one.
Final Score: Minnesota 7, New York 6. Twins win series, 3-2.
Game 5 ALDS: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays, Tues, TBS
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The Matchup: Wilson v. Garza
Why Tampa Bay Will Win: If both pitchers are at the top of their game, Matt Garza is better than C.J. Wilson. Tampa's got speed at every position, and while Bengie Molina has been throwing well against opposing baserunners, he can't possibly get them all.
Why Texas Will Win: Wilson has been Mr. Consistency this year, while Garza's been extremely streaky. Their offense has more pop from top to bottom than the Rays'.
What Will Happen: A minor meltdown from Garza creates difficulties for the Rays, who have to turn to their bullpen earlier than they want to. But don't expect Tampa to go down without a fight.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 6, Texas 5, 11 innings. Rays win series 3-2.
Game 5 NLDS: Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies, Wed, TBS
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The Matchup: Oswalt v. Arroyo
Why Cincinnati Will Win: Philly's bullpen inpsires little confidence in the city of brotherly love, and the Reds are known for their comeback antics. Fitting, then, that they should continue in the postseason.
Why Philadelphia Will Win: Oswalt's dominant, Arroyo's adequate. The Phillies' offense should gouge him early and send him to the bench before the fifth inning.
What Will Happen: Expect Philly to jump out early, but the Reds will rally behind shaky bullpen performance.
Final Score: Cincinnati 7, Philadelphia 6, 12 innings. Reds win series 3-2.
Game 5 NLDS: Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants, Wed, TBS
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The Matchup: Tommy Hanson v. Matt Cain
Why San Francisco Will Win: The Giants have been great at home in 2010, and Cain's been dominant the last month and a half. If the offense can generate runs, this team will win this game and series.
Why Atlanta Will Win: The Braves' offense has been streaky.
If they get on a tear in this series, watch out. There might not be a need for Game 5.
What Will Happen: Don't expect much offensive production, as has been the rule in this series.
Final Score: San Francisco 4, Atlanta 2. Giants win series, 3-2.
ALCS Preview: Minnesota Twins v. Tampa Bay Rays
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Why Minnesota Will Win: The Twins' hopes rest on first baseman Justin Morneau. If they want to make it to the World Series, they need their slugger back in the lineup for this series, at the absolute latest.
Their starters are solid, but is there an ace in the bunch? If not, Minnesota's bullpen is one of the league's best.
Why Tampa Bay Will Win: The Rays are the better team on paper. Better offense, better starters, better closer. So they should win, right?
Prediction: Minnesota wins ALCS, 4-2.
NLCS Preview: Cincinnati Reds Vs. San Francisco Giants
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Why San Francisco Will Win: Better pitching trumps a superior offense. The Giants will be able to shut down the Reds, but the Reds don't have the proven talent to do it to the Giants.
Why Cincinnati Will Win: The Reds don't go away. They scrap and fight, and led by first baseman Joey Votto, they think they can beat anybody. And maybe they can.
Final Prediction: Reds win the series, 4-2. Offense trumps pitching in this one.
World Series Preview: Minnesota Twins Vs. Cincinnati Reds
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Why Minnesota Will Win: The Twins are evenly matched with the Reds, but they bring more playoff experience to the table. Their bullpen is more reliable, and they'll have home-field advantage.
Why Cincinnati Will Win: The Reds' offense is capable of running the Twins out of their own stadium. Their pitching staff can dominate at times and could get hot enough to win the series in five or six games.
Final Prediction: Twins win the World Series, 4-2.
