NFL Week 4 Matchup Analysis Point Spread Pick 'Em Betting Guide
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Last week - (4 - 12)
Season - (21 - 27)
Financially - $$$ Up! - because I don't have to bet on every game!
I've been writing these for 2 years on my blog - GameDayDog.com/str8talkr - but I'll start posting these on Bleacher Report as well.
Well the 49'ers gave me a beating last week. I almost called Denver's head coach on Sunday to tell him to kick field goals in the red zone. Three points are better than zero! Speaking of missed field goals.. nah, I'd rather not.
Let's go with this week games - point spread brought to you by Bodog.com as of Friday Oct. 1, 2010.
Broncos vs Titans (-7) ... Based on the head coaches ability to score zero redzone points, I'll take the Titans.
Ravens vs Steelers (+2) ... This point spread moved since I bet, but it's at +2 now, and I'm still picking the Ravens. The Steelers defense is much better than the Browns. The Ravens are better than Tampa Bay. Don't expect those bombs to Mike Wallace to work this week.
Bonus - OVER/UNDER set at 34.5 - I would take the Under.
Bengals vs Browns (+3) ... Once again, I love Peyton Hillis, but with the Browns secondary has gaping holes. If Carson can complete 60% of his passes, it'll be a long day.
Lions vs Packers (-14.5) ... Without Jahvid Best in the Lions backfield, I think this point spread is possible. Calvin Johnson is an amazing receiver, but without the threat of a play action running game it'll be hard for him to do it all by himself.
Panthers vs Saints (-14) ... A blowout? With a rookie QB, I see the Saints being up 30 at half and resting everyone.
49'ers vs Falcons (-7) ... I'll pick the team that's running on all cylinders. Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Tony Gonzales & that running back nobody's ever heard of (Michael Turner) will be effective.
Seahawks vs Rams (+1.5) ... I'm picking the Rams. Maybe it's my love for the underdog, but after seeing them whip a Redskins team that went toe-to-toe with the Texans, I'm a Bradford believer. (Actually, I've been cheering for the rookie since day one)
Jets vs Bills (+6) ... The J.E.T.S. will exit this game with a win and it won't be close. Special teams can't save the Bills every week and the Patriots secondary is young and playing awful.
Colts vs Jaguars (+8) ... The Jags have lost the last 2 games by 25 points. If the point spread was (+24.5), I would still take the Colts. Kassim Osgood got pistol-whipped by a cheerleaders ex-boyfriend and the Colts will pistol-whip the rest of the Jags. (Yeah, that was too easy!)
Texans vs Raiders (NA) ... Bodog doesn't have a spread on this game yet, but I've heard it can be Texans (-3) at other sites. I'll take the Texans (-3). It's easier to win with an injured receiver than an injured running back.
Cardinals vs Chargers (-9) ... The Chargers have lost games due to mistakes on special teams. I expect their defense to get 3 interceptions off Derek Anderson and help turn this one into a blowout.
Eagles vs Redskins (+6) ... Michael Vick just earned player of the month honors in the NFL. The Redskins just lost to the Rams by double digits. I'm going with the hot hand.
Bears vs Giants (-3.5) ... The point spread moved again, when I bet, it was 4. I would still take the Bears. Eli Manning has turned into an interception machine. They have a ton of yards, but no points to show for it. Plus Lawrence Tynes hurt my fantasy team with those misses.
Patriots vs Dolphins (+1.5) ... You have to bet the Patriots. Brandon Marshall and Bess will get theirs but the Patriots have discovered a running game.
If you notice, I mentioned that the point spread moved on a few occasions. That's the problem with betting early. You get better odds on games, but you could find out that a key player is injured later that week.
Games I'm betting my son's college fund on :
5 team parlay
Ravens (+1.5), Jets (-6), Eagles (-6), Bears (+4), Patriots (-1.5)
3 team parlays
Bengals (-3), Rams (+1.5), Jets (-6)
Ravens (+1.5), Rams (+1.5), Jets (-6)
Ravens (+1.5), Bengals (-3), Jets (-6)
Ravens (+1.5), Bengals (-3), Rams (+1.5)
7 Teams - 6 point Teaser aka "The Powerball"
Ravens (+7.5), Rams (+7.5), Jets (win), Colts (-2), Eagles (win), Bears (+10), Patriots (+4.5)
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