NFL Week 3 Predictions – The Coach's 'Quick Picks'
For the second week in a row, the books won a ton of money… and chances are, you lost it (along with me)
The public lost as the Dolphins, Bears, Lions, Steelers, Buccaneers and Jets all covered.
The only heavily bet games the public won were the Falcons, Packers, Colts and 49ers covering the spread.
If lines seem a little shady to you, it’s because the books are giving you easy money back. Trust me, the last two weeks have been rough for the casual bettor and it’s only big paydays for Vegas and OLF.
Week 3 will be a good week.
San Francisco 49ers (0-2) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2-0)
LINE: 49ers -1.5
Who would have thought after two weeks the 49ers’ would be 0-2 and the Chiefs 2-0, but isn’t that why we love the NFL? The Chiefs may be winning but they need to get the ball to Jamaal Charles more. He is their best player. Until Todd Haley realizes this, the Chiefs won’t continue getting lucky, by winning close games. Matt Cassel has completed only 52% of his passes and the 49ers are hungry to get back into the thick of things in the NFC West.
***Winless teams favored over an opponent coming off a win are 15-2 ATS since 1980***
49ers’ 23 Chiefs 16
Dallas Cowboys (0-2) @ Houston Texans (2-0)
LINE: Houston -3.0
Not only does Dallas need to win this game in order to get back into the stacked NFC East race, but after this game they have a BYE and if they are 0-3, Jerry Jones will be making changes. Houston also has a few issues with Andre Johnson day-to-day (ankle sprain), and Duante Brown’s four-game suspension for violating the league’s policy on PEDs. With Brown out, DeMarcus Ware should wreck havoc. This is an odd point spread that seems to be baiting bets for Houston. Everyone’s high on the Texans and down on the Cowboys and the line's only -3.0? (and the games in Houston)? If they wanted equal action, the line would be -4.5 or -5. A lot of people will be beating of the Texans this week with such a low line at home, and Vegas/OLG will win big when the Cowboys win.
Cowboys 24 Texans 23
Tennessee Titans (1-1) @ New York Giants (1-1)
LINE: Giants -3.0
This is the one game of the week I honestly can’t decide on. I think New York is the better team, because Tennessee can play poorly and turn the ball every time they touch it (see their game vs. Pittsburgh), or dominate in every way (see game vs. Oakland). The Titans can be the team who starts 0-6, to finish 8-8. The Giants are more consistent and at home. But I don’t like this pick.
Giants 24 Titans 20
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0)
LINE: Steelers -2.5
Other than Rashard Mendenhall’s Week 1 50-yard scamper in OT, the Steelers haven’t been able to muster very much offense in the past two weeks. But they’ve found ways to win football games, whether it be a kickoff return or by their incredible defense. The Buccaneers are 2-0 but have won against the Browns and Panthers, not the Steelers.
Pittsburgh 19 Buccaneers 12
Detroit Lions (0-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (0-2)
LINE: Vikings -10.5
The Lions defense ranks 31st against the pass and they also have issues against the run, as they surrendered six yards per carry to the Eagles. Adrian Peterson will have a big day, putting Brett Favre in favorable situations. Take the following into consideration: 1) Not only have the Vikings won 20 of the last 21 meetings between the two, but if Miami didn’t beat Minnesota last week, this line is -13.5 for Minnesota. 2) Favorites of -6.5 or more going into their bye are an immaculate 34-8 against the spread since 2002. 3) and probably most important, the Vikings NEED to win as they can’t start the season 0-3 and have either the Packers or Bears start 3-0 (they play each other on MNF).
VIkings 31 Lions 14
Atlanta Falcons (1-1) @ New Orleans Saints (2-0)
LINE: Saints -4.5
The Saints had the daunting task of suiting up against the Vikings and 49ers’ defenses the last two weeks, and they didn’t put up huge numbers on the scoreboard because of it. This week they will face an inferior Falcons squad and the numbers will climb. Don’t get me wrong, the Falcons are good, but if you take away the ‘home-field advantage’ which is generally a three point cushion, the odd-makers are saying that the Saints are only better by a few points? When Matt Ryan sucks on the road? Pound the Saints at home if the line is -4.5
Saints 27 Falcons 21
Cleveland Browns (0-2) @ Baltimore Ravens (1-1)
LINE: Ravens -10.5
The Browns have faced the Chiefs, and the Buccaneers and are 0-2. Expect another loss, as much as you can expect Joe Flacco to bounce back from the horrific performance he had last week against the Bengals (four interceptions). Jake Delhomme, Seneca Wallace, your neighbor's 10-year-old son… doesn’t really matter who the Browns start. The Ravens will kill as they’re 9-1 ATS vs. teams with losing records under John Harbaugh.
Ravens 26 Browns 6
Buffalo Bills (0-2) @ New England Patriots (1-1)
LINE: Patriots -13.5
The Patriots defense looked horrible against the Jets last week but the Bills can’t duplicate what Shonn Green and LT did. AND ALSO, why did the Bills draft C.J. Spiller, only not to play him? I-D-I-O-T-S. Take the Patriots for the sole reason that Tom Brady hates to lose about as much as he hates women who aren’t supermodels. He is a remarkable 13-6 against the spread following a loss in his career and the Patriots have won 18 of the last 19 meetings against the Bills.
Patriots 34 Bills 13
Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) @ Carolina Panthers (0-2)
LINE: Cincinnati -3.5
Hmm, I said last week that Jimmy Clausen starting over Matt Moore would be an upgrade… well, that was against the Buccaneers, not the Bengals, who made Joe Flacco look abysmal. Cincinnati is going to eat Clausen alive in his first NFL start and put the Bengals in quite a few favorable situations. Might even be time for Ocho and T.O. to shine.
Bengals 23 Panthers 14
Washington Redskins (1-1) @ St. Louis Rams (0-2)
LINE: Washington -3.5
Seriously? Washington -3.5? That’s it? This line is fishy as F&@%… EASY MONEY (should be). The Rams have lost in close games against the Raiders and Cardinals but the Redskins this year look for real. If it weren’t for a huge comeback by the Texans last week, you’d be looking at a division leading 2-0 Redskins. Easy win. Easy money. McNabb is making the Eagles pay for trading him divisional.
Washington 27 Rams 17
Philadelphia Eagles (1-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1)
LINE: Eagles -3.0
Andy Reid first announced Kolb would start, than flipped back to Vick. I am not surprised at all. Vick looked great last week against the Lions, and although it was Detroit, the Jags aren’t much better. In fact, they may be worse. Jacksonville ranks last versus the pass (10.2 YPA) and are 24th against the run allowing 4.5 yards per carry. For Jacksonville, it seems if they aren’t playing a division rival, they stink, as they are 5-17 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008. If they don’t know they’re opponent they aren’t going to be in the game. And they don’t know Mike Vick.
Eagles 27 Jaguars 20
San Diego Chargers (1-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (1-1)
LINE: Chargers -3.5
With the way the Chargers played on the road in Week 1 against Kansas City in Arrowhead, you can bet they will be out to prove they aren’t going to be pushovers away from home. The problem is, there may be no harder place to play than Seattle, the home of the 12th man. Even though the Seahawks are 14-4 against the spread in September home games since 2000, they aren’t the Seahawks who contended for the Super Bowl. Take the Chargers, who famously start the season slow, but after last week should have found their way.
Chargers 24 Seahawks 19
Oakland Raiders (1-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (1-1)
LINE: Cardinals -4.5
The Cardinals are not that good, but they’re a veteran team and after losing 41-7, I have to imagine that they’ll be playing for pride in their home opener. Also, if a team loses by 25+ points, they are 74-35 ATS the following week. Pretty nice trend to bet on. Darren McFadden is finally living up to his name and playing good football but the fact the Raiders are deciding if Bruce Gradkowski should start over Jason Campbell, scares the S&%# outta me.
Cardinals 23 Raiders 17
Indianapolis Colts (1-1) @ Denver Broncos (1-1)
LINE: Indy -6.5
For everyone who thought the Colts would suffer the Super Bowl hangover, last week should have taught you to smarten up. This week, unless the Colts make sloppy mistakes, which is rare, they’ll be able to move up and down the field with ease in Denver. How the Broncos react to the suicide of their receiver Kenny McKinley is unpredictable. The Bengals put on a spirited performance in the wake of Chris Henry’s death last year. However, the Redskins played poorly following the murder of Sean Taylor back in 2007, losing to Buffalo at home as large favorites, 17-16.
Colts 30 Broncos 20
New York Jets (1-1) @ Miami Dolphins (2-0)
LINE: Dolphins -0.5
The Jets are second versus the run, giving up just 1.9 yards per carry. The Ravens had 47 yards on 31 attempts, followed by 52 yards on 20 rushes by New England last week. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams won’t find much running room Sunday night. Henne is lucky that Revis is out this week, but Rex Ryan will come up with schemes on third-and-long to confuse the young pivot. Miami had issues with Adrian Peterson last week, and although Tomlinson and Greene are not AP, the Jets do have a better offensive line than the Vikings. Jets win by playing smash-mouth football the Rex Ryan way.
Dolphins 16 Jets 10
Green Bay Packers (2-0) @ Chicago Bears (2-0)
LINE: Green Bay -3.5
The Packers have a great secondary, and if Green Bay’s Clay Matthews can get to Cutler like DeMarcus Ware did last week, the Packers will capitalize off Cutler’s mistake (unlike the Cowboys). Soldier Field will be nuts on Monday Night and the Bears will feed off it but unfortunately the way this game is going to be won by whichever defence rattles the other teams offence. I’ll take Rodgers and company over Cutler and Co. any day, but it doesn’t help I hate Jay Cutler.
Packers 27 Bears 23
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