How Much Is Tom Brady Worth?

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is due for a new contract. The upcoming 2010 season is the last year in his current contract, and a new deal is already being discussed between his agent and the New England management. 

As Patriots fans already know and understand, the New England front office isn’t exactly the most generous when it comes to giving their players new contracts. Obviously Brady is the most valuable player in the Patriot organization, and one of the top three quarterbacks in the league (behind Brees, even with Manning). But he is also a player that is going to be 33 heading into this season, and is only two years removed from that gruesome career-threatening knee injury that forced him to miss the entire '08 season.

Brady is the toast of the town in New England. He is arguably the most beloved current athlete in Boston and will go down as one of the ten best quarterbacks in NFL history. Brady has won three Super Bowls (two Super Bowl MVP), and has an amazing win/loss record of 111-33.  It is nearly impossible for anyone to look at his career statistics and then deem him a player that shouldn’t be given one of the more expensive contracts in the league.

He deserves a contract similar to that of what Peyton Manning will receive in the off-season. Indianapolis’s owner, Jim Irsay, has already gone on record that the Colts will “break the bank” for Manning. Manning deserves whatever the Colts are willing to give him. Brady deserves the same.

Unfortunately, that isn’t how New England works.

If New England chooses to let Brady go to free agency, it might not be a decision that will sit well with fans, but it isn't a ridiculous one. If Brady is going to coast 100+ million (as he should) then I for one will not be killing them for it.

This might be hard to fathom because of Brady’s skill and his previous success. Let me explain:

A) Bill Belichick made Tom Brady, not the other way around. Belichick sometimes makes odd decisions, but he is the rare coach that is able to both keep his team playing hard, AND have outstanding football knowledge. It is like if someone took Dick Vermeil’s “ra ra ra” attitude and passion, Vince Lombardi’s grit and tough as nails attitude and the football wits of Don Coryell and combined them into one super-coach.  If Belichick believes he can win games without Brady then I trust him. Patriots fans will too.

His success with Matt Cassel was incredible given the circumstances. New England’s 11-5 record at the end of the season missed the playoffs, but it was the same record that Tom Brady had during his first season as a starter. The Patriots missed out on the AFC East on a tiebreaker to Miami, but they were in it all year.

Belichick has made a career winning with no-name guys. Randy Moss is an obvious exception, but he was a bust with Oakland and was a huge risk to bet on when he first came to the Patriots. Belichick's offensive system turned players like Wes Welker, Deion Branch and the aging Corey Dillon into very good talents. They have had success even with a mediocre running game and defense. His teams win on smart play, turnovers and special teams.

2.) Brady’s knee injury is a concern, and it might be foolish to guarantee that much money to a player who has had trouble staying healthy. Manning has yet to miss a game in his career. Even when he had knee surgery the off-season before the ’08 season, he came back healthy and had another unbelievable season.

Not to say the Brady won’t be able to stay healthy for the next few years as his career is winding down, but it’s always risky in the NFL to guarantee money to players, and even riskier when the players mentioned have had to miss time in the past.

3.) The final reason is that this team is going to be breaking up soon. It’s really hard to keep a nucleus in place in the NFL for more then a couple of years. Contracts run out, people get injured or people retire . . . Randy Moss is most definitely gone next season. There is a very little chance that the Patriots keep him around for another year, especially since Moss will have a good season this year and will look to get paid.

The time has come for New England to start getting a new QB ready for the future. I don’t mean that they should go draft Andrew Luck or Jake Locker in the first round of the draft next year and basically force Brady out (as Green Bay did with Brett Favre by drafting Aaron Rodgers), but they need to get somebody ready. They need to start molding a young QB (like Philadelphia did with Kevin Kolb and what Dallas did with Tony Romo) to take over. Brady won’t be here forever.

I’m not saying that Tom Brady shouldn’t be getting paid. He is the golden boy of Boston right now and he deserves all the money in the world. He deserves to be making at least what Manning and Brees are making. However, football is business and it is becoming clearer every day that New England will not be paying him what he is worth.

Hopefully both sides agree and Brady ends his career in New England. It would be hard to watch the NFL in the future with Brady playing for San Francisco or Seattle, just because NE is too cheap to afford him.