Long-Term Investments: Four Marlins Who Must Be Signed, Sealed, & Delivered
Shortly after securing their future long-term home, Marlins Ballpark, in Little Havana near Downtown Miami, the Marlins began their long-term deals with their marquee players.
In 2008, the Marlins signed their all-star shortstop Hanley Ramirez to a six year, $70 million extension that goes through the 2014 season. It was their first such long-term deal since they signed first baseman Carlos Delgado to a five year deal in 2005.
The Marlins continued that trend by locking up their ace, Josh Johnson to a four year extension worth $39 million in 2010.
In order to keep their nucleus intact and the future bright, the Marlins must continue to fortify their long-term investments by signing a few others to long-term deals as well.
Dan Uggla
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This is the obvious choice and I'm sure many would agree that Dan Uggla needs to be the first to be signed long-term.
Selected in the Rule 5 Draft after being left off Arizona's 40 man roster in 2005, Uggla has been the starting second baseman since 2006, Uggla has set a new standard at his position with his remarkable power numbers.
In his rookie season, Uggla set a major league record for most home runs by a rookie second baseman with 27 HRs.
Uggla has not slowed down, being selected twice to the All-Star game (2006, 2008) and currently holding the franchise record for home runs recently passing long time Marlin Mike Lowell with 144 career HRs.
Uggla is a bit older (30) then most of the Marlins players but the bat is still strong and figures to be a force for the next few years. The Marlins control Uggla for one more season in 2011 but in 2012 he figures to hit the free agent market. The front office M.O. is to sign players to deals that will at least cover one or two years of that free agency period.
Current Contract: One-year, $7.8 million ($13.1 million made between 2009 and 2010)
Probable Future Contract: 3-year, $36 million deal
Chances He Inks*: 60%
(Chances inks or signs a contract extension this upcoming offseason)
Ricky Nolasco
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Acquired in the Juan Pierre trade of 2005, Ricky Nolasco has been a fixture in the Marlins rotation. He was hampered by injuries in 2007 after a mediocre rookie season.
Since then, Nolasco has been one of the Marlins most consistent starters since 2008, with over 40 wins and an WHIP of just under 1.20 in that stretch.
Before the emergence of Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco was counted on as the ace of the rotation in early 2009 but struggled a bit before regaining his form later in the season.
In my opinion, I see Ricky Nolasco in comparison to pitcher Dan Haren and that's saying something. The Marlins can't afford to let Nolasco just go or just trade him away. He is a valuable asset that the Marlins try and find a way to keep.
He doesn't figure to earn as much as JJ and there isn't a bunch of potential starters lining up in the minor leagues for the Marlins to replace him. Nolasco is arbitration eligible in 2011 and 2012 and becomes a free agent in 2013. I feel as though the Marlins might go as deep as they did with Josh Johnson in years but a bit less in the money category.
Current Contract: One-year, $3.8 million
Probable Future Contract: 4-year, $32 million deal
Chances He Inks*: 50%
(Chances he inks or signs a contract extension this upcoming offseason)
Michael Stanton
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The Marlins prized new prospect, Michael Stanton, is only 20 years of age but should be a top candidate next to Uggla and Nolasco to be extended. His bat has caught fire lately after a slow start and is starting to show what he is about.
Stanton figures to be the Marlins middle-of-the-order bat for many years to come, same thing was said about another former Marlin, Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera was young when he was called up at the same age and helped the Marlins to the World Series. The Marlins should know that he was a cautionary tale and that Stanton should be locked up right now before his numbers figure to escalate further to a point where he would demand a lot right as he hits arbitration.
Because he was called up in early June, after the possible cutoff date for Super-Two status, Stanton figures to be arbitration eligible after the 2013 season and free agent eligible after the 2016 season.
Stanton has drawn comparisons to Dave Winfield but those are best reserved for his defensive play. Stanton's bat has the potential to be that of a Ryan Howard (who was a Super-Two) and for that must be extended long term before it ever gets to that scenario. Stanton is a potential 40 HR hitter with the ability to drive in 110-120 runs but it's his strikeout ability that really makes him and Howard similar, on a best-case scenario.
The face of the future alongside Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez, who have already inked long-term deals, Stanton's long-term contract potential this offseason depends on whether the Marlins can extend Uggla and Nolasco this offseason as well. Chances are low either way of it happening but it should happen.
The Marlins should follow the M.O. of the Rays and Brewers when they signed Ryan Braun and Evan Longoria to long-term deals in their rookie seasons, albeit their first seasons were quite impressive and thats why they were inked.
Current Contract: Major-league minimum
Recommended Future Contract: 6-year, $17 million deal (with a two-year team option totaling $20 million in 2017 and 2018.)
Chances He Inks*: 15%
(Chances he inks or signs a contract this upcoming offseason)
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Anibal Sanchez
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Anibal Sanchez has quietly been one of the Marlins better pitchers for the past couple of years. He has been better than teammate Ricky Nolasco, ERA-wise throughout that stretch (since 2009).
After a stellar rookie season which he had 10-3 record with an impressive 2.83 ERA, including a no-hitter of the Arizona Diamondbacks, Sanchez was injured in 2007 and struggled in 2008 while coming back from it.
He has turned it around for the Marlins and is one of three Marlins starting pitchers (Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco) who figure to anchor the staff forward when the Marlins open their new ballpark in 2012.
It's unlikely Sanchez signs an extension this offseason although he is eligible for salary arbitration after this season. He might sign it next offseason for a few reasons. For one, the Marlins still control him thru the 2013 season and they haven't shown an urgency to extend their pitchers, barely extending Josh Johnson last season. The other is that the Marlins might want to see if Sanchez can keep up the great pitching he has had in 2011. Finally, they'll be involved in other talks with Uggla and Nolasco so Sanchez is a bit more of a back-burner if talks fall with Nolasco for instance.
Current Contract: One-year, $1.25 million
Probable Future Contract: 3 year, $25 million (probably after 2011 season)
Chances He Inks*: 15%
(Chances he inks or signs a contract this upcoming offseason)
The Bottom Line
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If the Marlins want to ever think about contending they must do so by keeping their nucleus intact and by trading their players when the going gets tough financially. With a new ballpark coming in 2012, the salary figures to be middle of the pack and you gotta hope that Dan Uggla, Ricky Nolasco, Michael Stanton, and Anibal Sanchez are signed long-term to make it happen.
The NL East will get no easier for the next decade, Ryan Howard is signed long-term and the Phillies have Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt. The Braves have Jason Heyward, Martin Prado, and young solid rotation with Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson. The Nationals have Stephen Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman, young phenom Bryce Harper, and perhaps Adam Dunn. The Mets have David Wright, Jose Reyes, Ike Davis, Johan Santana, and Jon Niese. You get the point, it's not any easy and the NL East will be a tough go.
The Marlins have the talent move forward but will they have a check big enough for keeping an nucleus intact? We'll see.
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