MLB 2010: The 10 Most Surprising Players in the Show

Surprise players can carry both a fantasy baseball squad and a Major League Baseball team to a championship.

Owners and managers may have hunches regarding certain players, but they remain pipe dreams until the production actually comes to fruition.

The true value of these players comes in their unexpected contributions, usually at very low salaries. A cheap All Star, in many ways, can be considered more valuable than a high-priced superstar.

Just as fantasy leagues are often won in the late rounds, division titles and championships are often decided not by the $20-million-a-year slugger, but by the bargain-bin pitcher who turns into a solid #3 pitcher.

Or the early-season injury replacement who earns an everyday job.

The 2010 MLB season has produced numerous surprise players and it is no coincidence that many of these players are on teams that have outperformed their preseason prognostications.

10. Trevor Cahill

Statistics: 125.2 IP, 11-4 W-L Record, 2.72 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 73 Ks, 41 BB

At the start of the 2009 season, the prospect tandem of Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson entered the Oakland rotation. With Anderson ranked #7 and Cahill #11 according to Baseball America's top prospect list, it appeared that both would be fixtures at the top of the A's rotation for years to come.

However, entering 2010, Anderson was receiving hype as a sleeper Cy Young contender while Cahill was viewed as a potential candidate for AAA-Sacramento after a very disappointing rookie campaign.

Instead, Anderson has spent most of 2010 on the DL while Cahill already has earned his first All-Star appearance.

Cahill's stellar 2010 comes as a result of two key improvements.

First, he has cut his walk rate from 3.63 BB/9 to 2.94 while simultaneously upping his strikeout rate from 4.53 K/9 to 5.23.

Second, and more importantly, he has become a fantastic ground ball pitcher.

In 2009, Cahill had a solid ground ball rate of 47.8%. But in 2010, he has raised his rate to a fantastic 56.7%, ranking him 4th overall in all of MLB.

Concerns remain regarding his extremely low BABIP (.206).

However, Cahill's groundball tendencies have come with an extremely low line drive percentage of 14.0%, tied with Ubaldo Jimenez for 3rd best in baseball.

His BABIP is still too low and will probably rise along with his ERA as the season comes to a close. But if he continues to be capable of inducing weak contact, his BABIP will most likely stay below the accepted average of .300.

Even taking luck into account, Cahill has shown marked improvement and has been a fantastic surprise for an Athletics squad that has overcome the fourth worst offense in the AL to hover around the .500 mark.

9. Jaime Garcia

Statistics: 121 IP, 9-5 W-L Record, 2.53 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 97 Ks, 46 BB

A mere five months ago, Garcia was in a heated battle with Kyle McClellan and Rich Hill for the final spot in the Cardinals rotation.

Hill has posted a 4.14 ERA in AAA this season. McClellan has spent the season in the bullpen.

Garcia?

Only the odds-on favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year.

After missing most of the 2009 season following Tommy John surgery, Garcia was both an unproven rookie and an injury risk.

Now, he is the third best pitcher on one of the top teams in the National League.

Garcia has achieved success with a stellar groundball rate and a dominant cutter. His 54.7% ground ball percentage ranks ninth in MLB, and he has had the fourth best cutter in baseball according to Fangraphs.

While Garcia's 2.53 ERA will likely slightly rise before the end of the season to match his peripheral statistics (3.35 FIP), his meteoric rise to top NL starter was completely unforeseen.

It's also a large reason why the Cardinals have overcome injuries to Kyle Lohse and Brad Penny to stay in the race for the NL Central.

8. Brett Myers

Statistics: 151 IP, 8-6 W-L Record, 3.10 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 117 Ks, 46 BB

Although it seems like a lifetime ago, Brett Myers was once a popular candidate for a breakout performance as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Following two straight sub-4.00 ERA seasons in which Myers averaged 198 strikeouts, the right-hander appeared primed to turn into an elite starter in 2007.

But for the next three seasons, Myers failed to post an ERA below 4.00 while bouncing between the bullpen and the rotation for the Phillies.

In 2009, Myers tore his labrum and clashed with Phillies management over injury stories in addition to his role with the team. Subsequently, he was informed that the team was not interested in bringing the pitcher back.

Myers responded by finally having that long awaited breakout season.

Except it happened in Houston.

While Myers' strikeout rate has actually dropped in relation to his best seasons in Philadelphia, the key to his season has been his new-found aversion to the long ball.

The new Astro's career HR/FB rate is 14.7%, but, this season, only 8.7% of Myers' fly balls have left the park.

Unlike most of the others on the list, Myers' stellar season has not resulted in a strong season for Houston. However, his surprising season has earned him a two-year contract extension and a degree of stability in a new city.

Not many would have predicted that after the way his tenure in Philadelphia ended.

7. Delmon Young

Statistics: 372 AB, 53 R, 14 HR, 83 RBI, .331/.362/.538, .899 OPS

Delmon Young, the eternal prospect.

Once Baseball America's top prospect in all of baseball, Young's career had consisted of an unfortunate bat throwing incident, a promising rookie season, a trade to Minnesota, and then a lack of any progression whatsoever.

While Young's talent remained, many baseball observers were beginning to doubt his production would ever match his potential, stunted by a supposed poor attitude and poor plate discipline.

When he began 2010 with a .673 OPS in April, it appeared 2010 would be yet another frustrating season for Young and Minnesota.

Starting in May, however, Young turned the corner.

While the 24-year old outfielder still refuses to take a walk (4.2% BB), he has drastically cut down on his strikeout rate, slicing it in half from 23.3% to 11.6%.

This improvement has resulted in a large batting average spike, allowing him to overcome his poor plate discipline to an extent.

Instead of a .284/.308 BA/OBP line, Young's .331 BA has resulted in a solid .362 OBP in 2010.

In addition, Young is finally showing the power that made him such a beloved prospect. His .538 slugging percentage is a career high, blowing away his previous full season best of .425.

Despite the fact that he is a 5-year major league veteran, Young will only turn 25 in September. He is just entering his prime.

The eternal prospect is finally paying dividends.

6. Aubrey Huff

Statistics: 382 AB, 70 R, 20 HR, 66 RBIs, .312/.398/.552, .951 OPS

Coming off the worst season of his career by far, Huff was signed by the San Francisco Giants in January to a one-year, $3 million contract.

Only two years removed from a Silver Slugger Award, Huff was now essentially viewed as a past-his-prime lottery ticket.

That's what a season of a .694 OPS will do for you.

But instead of bouncing around MLB as a glorified utility player, Huff didn't just rebound back to pre-2009 levels.

He got better.

The 2010 campaign has been Aubrey Huff's best season of his career, almost unfathomable for a 32 year old whose prime was pretty solid, to say the least.

His jump in statistics is a result of a return to his peak levels of power and the highest walk rate of his career.

His isolated power (ISO) of .241 is Huff's third highest of his career and a drastic jump from his 2009 ISO of .144.

But his walk rate is the most fascinating improvement

Never before in Huff's career has he walked in over 10% of his at bats. But in 2010, his walk rate is at a very solid 12.1%. This has resulted in a .398 OBP, easily the highest of his career.

For a Giants team desperate for offense, Huff's contributions have been essential to their playoff chances.

5. R.A. Dickey

Statistics: 99 IP, 7-4 W-L Record, 2.36 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 64 Ks, 28 BB

It's possible that no player in MLB has defined the description "out-of-nowhere" better than R.A. Dickey in 2010.

Dickey was once a highly touted college pitcher and was taken in the first round.

In 1996.

Over the last 14 years, Dickey discovered he does not have a ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching arm, made it to the Majors and could not stick there, learned a knuckleball, and finally made it back to the Majors as a spot starter/reliever.

But not even Dickey would have likely predicted this kind of success in 2010.

Signed to a minor league contract by the Mets in January, he dominated AAA hitters and was called up on May 19th.

Since then, Dickey has carved out a role in a big league rotation for the first time in his career, at age 35.

His 76 mph knuckleball has smothered big league hitters in 2010 and has helped the Mets overcome the regression of Mike Pelfrey, the struggles of Oliver Perez, and the injury of John Maine to remain a .500 ball club.

4. Colby Lewis

Statistics: 135.2 IP, 9-8 W-L Record, 3.45 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 134 Ks, 44 BB

Like R.A. Dickey, Colby Lewis was once a highly touted college pitching prospect, taken 38th overall in the supplemental round by the Texas Rangers.

Unlike Dickey, Lewis didn't come out of nowhere in 2010. Just Japan.

After flaming out as a Major League starting pitcher, Lewis left MLB in 2007 and signed with Hiroshima Carp of Japan's Central League.

Lewis immediately dominated, leading the league in strikeouts in 2008 and 2009. His 369:46 K/BB ratio in Japan was particularly eye-popping.

After his two fantastic seasons, Texas became interested in Lewis again and signed him to a two-year, $4.75 million contract.

That contract has proved to be a bargain, to say the least.

While Lewis' 8.02 K/BB ratio has not fully transferred to MLB, that was to be expected. His still-solid 3.05 K/BB ratio is good for 12th-best in the AL and he has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning.

In addition, his success has not been aided by luck. His 3.64 FIP is almost identical to his 3.45 ERA.

With the Rangers' mid-season addition of Cliff Lee, Lewis has settled in as the No. 2 starting pitcher in the rotation of the AL West favorites. Not bad for a pitcher who just two years ago was viewed as a bust.

3. Livan Hernandez

Statistics: 144.1 IP, 8-7 W-L Record, 3.12 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 78 Ks, 41 BB

When the Washington Nationals signed Livan Hernandez to a Minor League contract in February, it was hard to find a transaction that caused less of a stir.

Not only was Hernandez coming off a 2009 season in which he posted a 5.44 ERA, he had not finished a season with an ERA below 4.00 since 2005.

It appeared Hernandez was simply another filler signing by a team with no hope to contend in 2010.

Instead, the 35-year-old has become the one of the biggest pitching surprises of 2010.

After finishing April with a microscopic 0.87 ERA in four starts, baseball observers chuckled and waited for the inevitable regression.

It really hasn't come.

In three out of the four months of the season, Hernandez has posted an ERA under 4.00, only struggling in the month of June.

And unlike in 2009, where Hernandez crashed back to earth in July and August, he has actually improved his peripheral statistics this July. His 29/8 K/BB ratio (3.625) in the month of July was his best monthly ratio since August of 2003.

That's right. It's his best monthly ratio in seven years.

Hernandez has benefited from some luck this year, but his FIP is a very respectable 3.70. His HR/FB rate is an abnormally low 5.0%, which has resulted in a higher xFIP (4.58).

However, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Hernandez could keep that rate below the MLB average for the remainder of the season.

Regardless, he has given the Nationals his best season since 2005, which, strangely enough, was his last full season in Washington.

Maybe he just likes D.C.

2. Alex Gonzalez

Statistics: 395 AB, 55 R, 19 HR, 55 RBIs, .258/.303/.486, .789 OPS

Alex Gonzalez was once one of the top young shortstops in baseball.

His 2003 season in particular combined a solid OPS with stellar defense, making him a very valuable player.

However, upon leaving Florida as a free agent after the 2005 season, Gonzalez bounced around the league, often ending up in timeshares at the shortstop position and struggling with injuries.

In fact, he missed the entire 2008 season because of knee issues.

After putting in time for both Cincinnati and Boston in 2009, he signed a one year, $2.75 million contract with Toronto for the 2010 season.

Gonzalez has earned that contract and more.

While his defensive prowess never left, Gonzalez's power had seemingly declined since his knee injury. His 2009 slugging percentage was his lowest full season percentage since 2002.

Almost immediately, Gonzalez proved his power was still intact. He popped seven home runs in the month of April, and his .486 slugging percentage in 2010 would be a career high.

Combined with his still-stellar defense, Gonzalez has been the second-most valuable shortstop in all of baseball, according to Fangraphs' WAR statistic.

He even brought Toronto a talented young shortstop in Yunel Escobar, as Atlanta decided that their run at the NL East title necessitated a player like Gonzalez at SS.

His surprising comeback season made him a desired trade target, and now he is a key starter on a team that has hopes of making a run at the National League pennant.

1. Jose Bautista

Statistics: 380 AB, 71 R, 33 HR, 84 RBIs, .263/.376/.600, .976 OPS

When Jose Bautista closed out 2009 with 10 home runs in September and October, he caught the attention of a few fantasy owners who guessed that maybe Bautista could be a useful player in 2010.

Not even the most hopeful expected this.

Bautista has not only added a little extra pop to his bat, he has turned into 2010's best home run hitter. His 33 longballs lead all of baseball, comfortably ahead of second place Adam Dunn with 28.

Before his breakout, Bautista has bounced around the league as a utility player, spending time in five different cities before ending up in Toronto.

He had always possessed solid plate discipline, and with a career OPS of .836 against left-handers, Bautista looked like he was about to spend a decent career as a platoon 3B/OF or bench player.

But after adjusting his swing with the aid of manager Cito Gaston and hitting coach Dwayne Murphy, Bautista has turned into Bombtista.

Before this season, his best slugging percentage in a season was .420.

This year? Only .600.

He has even learned to hit right-handers this season, bashing them at a 1.012 OPS, as compared to his career .749 OPS versus righties.

Is 2010 a fluke?

Bautista is hitting more flyballs this season than ever before in his career, implying that a change in approach and not luck is the cause for his breakout.

His 21.0% HR/FB percentage is more in line with sluggers Carlos Pena and Ryan Howard than anyone could have expected, and could be due for a slight regression.

However, Bautista may best compare to a player like Pena, who offsets a poor batting average with tons of walks and mammoth power.

Besides, since last September, Bautista has hit 43 home runs. He is fast approaching the point where the "small sample size" argument no longer applies.

The Blue Jays surely aren't going to complain.