There is an idea running around that the head coach of the Denver Broncos, Josh Mcdaniels, has bet his entire career on Tim Tebow's eventual NFL production. However, that doesn't seem to really be true.
So who really bet their career on Tim Tebow's NFL career? A few prominent scouts and talking heads have bet a lot.
Why isn't it true that McDaniels has bet his career on Tim Tebow?
First, Tim Tebow was a 25th overall selection. Some people say that was too high. But let's look at the last ten (not including Tebow) 25th overall draft selections.
Chris Hovan (five years, decent), Freddie Mitchel (bust), Charles Grant (three good years, four bad ones), William Joseph (mediocre career, mostly a backup), Ahmad Carrol (basically a bust), Jason Campbell (Oakland's new QB, has had mediocre career so far), Santonio Holmes (great WR ), Jon Beason (pro-bowl LB), Mike Jenkins (Pro-bowl CB), Vontae Davis (had great Rookie season).
While there has been a recent streak of good 25th overall picks, the last ten years have shown a roughly 40% chance of a 25th overall pick being any good in the NFL. In other words, if Tebow busts, that will basically just be the average result for a 25th overall pick over the last ten years. And McDaniel is going to lose his career over that? Not likely.
Second, let's look at the pressure to perform. Kyle Orton is currently the starter. He was better than about half the starting QBs in the league last year. He will almost certainly be better this year than he was last year. Behind Kyle Orton is Brady Quinn. Originally a highly touted draft pick, Brady Quinn struggled in Cleveland. But so does everyone else that plays for Cleveland. That team just simply sucks. Regardless, Quinn is a much more capable backup than Sims was last year.
In other words, there is absolutely no pressure for Tebow to produce in the next two years or so. We have an above average starting QB in Orton, and a stellar backup in Quinn.
If Tebow produces in a few gadget plays designed just for him before he is ready to start as the every down QB, that is just a cherry on top.
Third, Tebow is incredibly versatile. Even should he totally fail as a starting QB, his physical talents, work ethic, and toughness should allow him to contribute in other ways. Should all else fail, Tebow will be a good short yardage H-Back. He has great lateral quickness and incredible toughness. Just ask Eric Berry who the hardest hitter in College was( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v8S5_40FXJA about halfway through). So, even should he bust as the QB he was drafted as, he will probably still be a good draft pick. Was he drafted to high for that? Maybe, but it is still a much better pick than most of the 25th overall picks over the last 10 years.
Mel Kiper, and his ilk, are the ones that truly gambled their career on Tim Tebow.
Mel Kiper's last major mistake: About Jamarcus Russell: "[T] hree years from now you could be looking at a guy that’s certainly one of the elite top five quarterbacks in this league.You’re talking about a 2-3 year period once he’s under center. Look out because skill level that he has is certainly John Elway like.”:
Some of Kiper's other major mistakes: Andre Ware, Mike Williams, Blair Thomas. The list goes on.
Mel Kiper about Tim Tebow: "I think Tebow has got to develop into a starting quarterback to be in the second round. I don't think that he can be."
Mel Kiper's credibility may already be shot. But if it is not, it certainly will be if Tebow becomes a solid starting QB. He doesn't even have to be in the top ten. If Tebow succeeds in the NFL, Mel Kiper's career as a scout will be put to a long over due death. Along with everyone that agreed with him.