The Case for Toby Gerhart
When was the last time the Heisman runner up wasn’t considered to be in the Top five of his position by draft “experts”?
How about the Doak Walker award winner?
Both of these statements are true for Toby Gerhart.
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In theory, a back with this kind of pedigree who has amassed over 1,800 yards, 27 TDs, a 5.5 YPC average and zero fumbles in the PAC-10, as well as having the desired NFL size for a running back at 6’1’’ and 235 lbs would be a first round consideration at the least, if not Top 10 overall.
Mike Mayock's recent list of Top five running backs reads:
1. C.J. Spiller
2. Ryan Matthews
3. Jahvid Best
4. Jonathan Dwyer
5. Joe McKnight/Dexter McCluster
A reasonably common ranking in the draft community at the moment. To understand why these six players were better, or more draftable, than Gerhart, more information is needed.
To begin understanding why these players are considered better prospects, an obvious place to look is in their respective production in their last year of college:
C.J. Spiller 216 attempts 1,212 yards 12 TDs 5.6YPC
Ryan Matthews 276 attempts 1,808 yards 19 TDs 6.6 YPC
Jahvid Best 141 attempts 867 yards 12 TDs 6.1 YPC
Jonathan Dwyer 235 attempts 1,395 yards 14TDs 5.9 YPC
Joe McKnight 164 attempts 1,014 yards 8 TDs 6.2 YPC
Dexter McCluster 181 attempts 1,169 yards 8 TDs 6.5 YPC
Toby Gerhart 343 attempts 1,871 yards 27 TDs 5.5 YPC
As an addition, Chris “Beanie” Wells’ information has been added as a benchmark for a similar (power) back who was drafted 31st overall, (third by position) and was considered one of the best running backs in his class.
Chris “Beanie” Wells 207 attempts 1,197 yards 8 TDs 5.8 YC
So Gerhart is the leader in total yards and TDs and has still maintained a 5.5 YPC average after 67 more attempts than the next back (Ryan Matthews, 276). He also compares favourably to Beanie Wells in terms of production with higher yards and TDs as well as a very similar YPC. However, the competition these players faced would of course be the largest factor in their success as better opposition requires better performances. As such, the average rush defence that each player has faced must be compared.
C.J. Spiller mean average 61st / median average 66th
Ryan Matthews 74th / 77th
Jahvid Best 56th / 51st
Jonathan Dwyer 62nd / 67th
Joe McKnight 54th / 48th
Dexter McCluster 59th / 62nd
Beanie Wells 49th / 50th
Toby Gerhart 55th / 42nd
(Note: Games vs. FCS teams not included, only games the back took part in were calculated.)
So from this, it’s apparent that Gerhart was also facing better opposition on average than his peers over the course of the season, thus meaning his greater production was not the result of playing weaker defenses.
Another way to assess production is to compare the yards each back gained against their opponents to the average rushing yards that team conceded over the course of the season. While this stat can only be shown in terms of the average rush yards against a team, it is fair to say a feature back should account for at least 80 percent of his team's rushing.
In the following comparison, 80 percent would show as 0.8 with 1.0 meaning the back has rushed for the exact average yards his opponents allowed in the season. Again, the average of these comparisons has been taken to show the back's productivity over the course of the season.
CJ Spiller 0.67
Ryan Matthews 0.96
Jahvid Best 0.59
Jonathan Dwyer 0.67
Joe McKnight 0.61
Dexter McCluster 0.86
Beanie Wells 0.93
Toby Gerhart 1.07
Once again, Gerhart comes out on top of the comparison, showing that he rushed for more yards on average than the teams he faced gave up on average over the course of the season. This can be seen in his games versus Oklahoma (eighth ranked rush defense, 135 yards gained when their average for the season was 92.92 yards), as well as against Washington, Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, USC, and Notre Dame.
In fact, for eight of the thirteen games he played this season, he exceeded the average rushing yards those teams gave up, alone. By comparison, CJ Spiller managed this twice and no other player managed to exceed this average more than four times.
Another obvious sticking point is Gerhart being “slow”. Well, this also warrants investigation by looking at 40 yard dash times and longest rush from scrimmage. Obviously, with the combine being underway, these stats will be updated imminently.
40 yard dash Longest Rush
CJ Spiller 4.37 66 yards
Ryan Matthews 4.48 77 yards
Jahvid Best 4.42 93 yards
Jonathan Dwyer 4.48 74 yards
Joe McKnight 4.42 54 yards
Dexter McCluster 4.42 86 yards
Beanie Wells 4.52 59 yards
Toby Gerhart 4.55 61 yards
So according to the reference used, (www.cbssports.com ) Gerhart is the slowest of the backs being compared. However, it is worth noting that Gerhart supposedly ran a 4.43 while at Stanford and has been training his speed since the end of the season. During the combine, it would not be unreasonable to expect him to run in the 4.44-4.47 range making him compare much more favourably to the other backs, particularly as he is the heaviest of them along with Ryan Matthews (235 lbs).
In addition, Beanie Wells ran a 4.59 at the combine last year and as he is the best basis for comparison, shows the range Gerhart should be expected to reach. The longest rush statistic also compares well as it shows the back's ability to outrun pursuing defenders, something not usually expected of a power back.
As Gerhart's longest is just five yards short of CJ Spiller's best effort, who is considered a lightning fast back, it speaks volumes of his ability to maintain top end speed despite the extra size and weight.
Hopefully some of the facts shown will have opened a few eyes to the quality of running back Toby Gerhart is, and that he certainly doesn’t deserve a third round grade. It has been shown through reliable stats based solely on actual performance that he faced tougher opposition on average and yet managed to produce consistently.
With the combine underway, more of the unknowns will be filled in, such as how fast will he run the 40, and how will he perform in the other drills, critically the bench press and agility drills. Unless Toby has an atrocious day, these results are sure to improve his draft stock and show once again the quality he has presented every week of the season and generate more buzz around him as the draft approaches.
If for nothing else, the stats prove Gerhart is an every down back who will excel in all situations, not just short yardage, and that he has consistently bettered his peers where it matters most, on the field.
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.jpg?w=480 "Titans Camp Football")
