Ranking MLB's 10 Best Third Basemen Ahead of 2021 Spring Training
With the start of Major League Baseball's spring training season now that much closer, we're continuing with our rankings of the top players at every position for 2021.
After tackling the top 10 first basemen last week, we're now moving across the diamond to third base.
This was a tough one. Because while the hot corner was overloaded with stars going into 2020, relatively few of them lived up to the hype during the league's pandemic-shortened season.
This was therefore largely an exercise in guessing which players will bounce back. In any case, we determined our rankings by considering players' recent track records and their upside and downside for the coming season.
We'll begin with some honorable mentions and then count down the top 10 third basemen in MLB.
5 to Watch
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Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies
Albeit in only 44 games, he's coming off an eye-opening debut season in which he hit .338 en route to a second-place finish in the National League Rookie of the Year voting.
J.D. Davis, New York Mets
After slugging .527 in 2019, he slipped to a .389 slugging percentage in 2020. But given that he maintained a .371 OBP last season, he's a potential All-Star if his power returns in 2021.
Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates
His first 24 games in the majors resulted in a .376/.442/.682 batting line, and he's generally regarded as a next-level defender at third. In other words, he's the guy to beat for NL Rookie of the Year.
Carter Kieboom, Washington Nationals
His first 44 games in the majors have yielded just a 47 OPS+ and two home runs. Yet it was just last year that he was considered an elite prospect in the wake of his .902 OPS at Triple-A in 2019.
Austin Riley, Atlanta
He's finished with exactly an 86 OPS+ in each of the last two seasons, which isn't great. But after dramatically reducing his strikeout rate in 2020, he's that much closer to breaking out.
First 5 Out
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Brian Anderson, Miami Marlins
He wouldn't seem to have immediate superstar upside, but it also can't be ruled out in light of how his OPS+ has grown from 94 to 119 in just four seasons.
Cavan Biggio, Toronto Blue Jays
He's probably better off at second base than at third base, but there's plenty to like about his numbers through his first 159 major league games. Namely, 24 home runs, 20 stolen bases and a 116 OPS+.
Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs
He had a rough year in 2018 and an awful year in 2020, finishing with a 73 OPS+ and 0.4 rWAR. But with free agency looming, he may be extra motivated to recapture his MVP-winning form of 2016 in 2021.
Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox
After breaking out in 2019, he continued pummeling the ball with exit velocity in the 96th percentile in 2020. He'll nonetheless have to reestablish consistency after it abandoned him on both offense and defense last year.
Yoan Moncada, Chicago White Sox
He also followed a 2019 breakout with a step back in 2020, wherein he was never right after catching the coronavirus. If he's feeling more like himself by now, he could be in for a huge season.
10. Justin Turner, Free Agent
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Age: 36
Key 2020 Stats: 42 G, 175 PA, 4 HR, 1 SB, .307 AVG, .400 OBP, .460 SLG, 135 OPS+
2020 WAR: 1.5
Well, this is awkward.
Justin Turner is still a free agent, for one thing. For another, the four home runs that he hit in 2020 might hint that he no longer has enough pop for third base, which is traditionally a power-packed position.
But in Turner's defense, the .307 average and .400 OBP that he posted in 2020 were in line with the .302 average and .381 OBP that he racked up between 2014 and 2019. Last year's power outage might also have been a fluke, as he drastically underperformed his expected slugging percentage.
Regardless of whether he re-signs with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Turner is thus a good bet to keep on raking in 2021. That would allow him to sustain as a star third baseman in spite of his advancing age and declining defensive ratings.
9. Josh Donaldson, Minnesota Twins
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Age: 35
Key 2020 Stats: 28 G, 102 PA, 6 HR, 0 SB, .222 AVG, .373 OBP, .469 SLG, 131 OPS+
2020 WAR: 0.5
It admittedly requires a leap of faith to believe that Josh Donaldson will play like a superstar in 2021.
That will largely hinge on whether he stays healthy, which is something he hasn't been able to do in three of the last four seasons because of recurring injuries to his calves. Obviously, those calves won't be getting any younger this season.
The bright side is that Donaldson remained an offensive threat when he was able to play in his first season with the Minnesota Twins. He maintained a sharp approach by striking out only six more times than he walked, and his exit velocity (92.8 mph) and hard-hit rate (53.4 percent) were par for the course.
It's a bit much to expect Donaldson to play at the level that won him the American League MVP in 2015. But if his calves cooperate, he might turn back to the clock to when he had 37 homers and 6.0 rWAR in 2019.
8. Eugenio Suarez, Cincinnati Reds
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Age: 29
Key 2020 Stats: 57 G, 231 PA, 15 HR, 2 SB, .202 AVG, .312 OBP, .470 SLG, 102 OPS+
2020 WAR: 0.7
Eugenio Suarez was immune to regression in his first five years with the Cincinnati Reds. Notably, his single-season home run output ballooned from 13 in 2015 to a whopping 49 in 2019.
Alas, the regression gremlins finally got to Suarez last season. And seemingly not by coincidence, as his struggles at the plate happened in the wake of shoulder surgery in January. He had an especially tough time early on as he went just 8-for-68 through his first 20 games.
But over his next 37 appearances, Suarez looked a lot more like himself in putting up a .928 OPS and 13 long balls. He also exited 2020 with solid batted ball metrics, including his best rate of barrels—i.e., balls hit with an ideal combination of launch angle and exit velocity—of the Statcast era, which began in 2015.
If Suarez can pick up where he left off, he should carry on being one of baseball's most prolific sluggers in 2021.
7. Gio Urshela, New York Yankees
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Age: 29
Key 2020 Stats: 43 G, 174 PA, 6 HR, 1 SB, .298 AVG, .368 OBP, .490 SLG, 136 OPS+
2020 WAR: 2.1
When Gio Urshela first broke out for the New York Yankees in 2019, it was fair to have suspicions.
His .314/.355/.534 batting line looked great, but some of his peripheral numbers suggested it was too good to be true. There was also, of course, the reality that he had never been a major offensive contributor in either the minors or the majors before that.
To his credit, Urshela flipped the script in 2020. He not only kept on hitting to the tune of a .298/.368/.490 line, but this time his metrics suggested that he had underperformed. To wit, he had the same expected batting average as teammate and MLB batting champ DJ LeMahieu.
All told, Urshela is now one of only four third basemen with at least a 130 OPS+ and 25 home runs since 2019. Between that and the above-average defensive metrics that he posted in 2020, he can be officially anointed as the real deal.
6. Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics
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Age: 27
Key 2020 Stats: 37 G, 152 PA, 10 HR, 0 SB, .232 AVG, .276 OBP, .535 SLG, 122 OPS+
2020 WAR: 1.2
Matt Chapman ranked behind only Mike Trout and Mookie Betts in rWAR for 2018 and 2019, across which he posted a 131 OPS+ and 60 home runs while playing utterly stellar defense.
Suffice it to say that the Oakland Athletics star didn't have as much fun in 2020. His offensive regression flowed from a significant increase in strikeouts, and his season was cut short by hip surgery.
It's some comfort that there were silver linings aplenty amid Chapman's down year, including his exit velocity and hard-hit rate ranking in the 98th and 95th percentile, respectively. So, health permitting, he won't have to rebuild himself from the ground up to succeed in 2021.
Chapman's agent, Scott Boras, said in December that his client is "ready to go" for 2021. Since he's not exactly an unbiased source, that should perhaps be taken with a grain of salt. But if Chapman is healthy, his return to superstardom should be just around the corner.
5. Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals
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Age: 29
Key 2020 Stats: 48 G, 201 PA, 8 HR, 0 SB, .253 AVG, .303 OBP, .434 SLG, 84 OPS+
2020 WAR: 1.6
It's still a little weird to think of Nolan Arenado as a member of the St. Louis Cardinals.
Yet that's what he is following the big trade between them and the Colorado Rockies, and there's little question about the upside of the deal for St. Louis. By way of his 31.4 rWAR, Arenado was the best player in the National League between 2015 and 2019.
As for what happened in 2020, there's a clear link between Arenado's left shoulder injury and his uncharacteristically poor numbers. That injury killed his power as both his exit velocity (87.8 mph) and hard-hit rate (33.7 percent) took a turn for the worse.
Assuming he's healthy now, the bigger question is how Arenado will adjust to life after Coors Field. Yet his road splits from 2015-2019 ease some of those concerns, and the Cardinals know they're at least going to get elite defense out of him. His eight straight Gold Gloves can vouch for that.
4. Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
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Age: 26
Key 2020 Stats: 42 G, 180 PA, 6 HR, 0 SB, .242 AVG, .350 OBP, .451 SLG, 116 OPS+
2020 WAR: 1.0
Alex Bregman was barely a year removed from being drafted when he debuted for the Houston Astros in 2016, yet he hit the ground running and was an All-Star and MVP contender by 2018.
The next year saw Bregman become an even brighter superstar as he racked up a 162 OPS+, 41 home runs and an MLB-high-tying 9.1 rWAR. Though he missed out on the AL MVP award to Mike Trout, he arguably should have won it.
From looking at how much his stats declined in 2020, it might seem as if Bregman was missing an advantage after MLB blew the lid off Houston's sign-stealing ways.
In actuality, he wasn't off by that much. His approach remained razor-sharp as he struck out only twice more than he walked, and he was also proficient at keeping his batted balls off the ground. If he gets back to pulling those balls like he did in 2019, his numbers will rebound accordingly in 2021.
3. Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels
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Age: 30
Key 2020 Stats: 52 G, 232 PA, 9 HR, 0 SB, .286 AVG, .418 OBP, .497 SLG, 151 OPS+
2020 WAR: 2.1
The Los Angeles Angels signed Anthony Rendon to a $245 million contract in hopes that he would form a dynamic offensive duo with Mike Trout.
That hope panned out in 2020. Rendon basically didn't chase bad pitches in the process of racking up seven more walks than strikeouts. And while he didn't hit for as much power after blasting 34 home runs in 2019, his exit velocity (90.1 mph) and launch angle (19.5 degrees) barely budged.
If there's cause for concern regarding Rendon, it's that he may be past his defensive prime. By both defensive runs saved and outs above average, he was no better than average defensively in 2020.
Yet that might simply have been a bit of small-sample-size wonkiness. And even if Rendon is no longer an elite defender, his 2020 numbers and his overall .307/.399/.550 line since 2017 makes it clear that he's in the thick of his offensive prime.
2. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland
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Age: 28
Key 2020 Stats: 58 G, 254 PA, 17 HR, 10 SB, .292 AVG, .386 OBP, .607 SLG, 163 OPS+
2020 WAR: 2.4
Jose Ramirez took his place among the best players in baseball in 2017 and 2018, across which he amassed a 148 OPS+, 68 home runs, 51 stolen bases and the third-most rWAR among position players.
It was quite a shock, then, when Ramirez slipped to a 106 OPS+ and 3.4 rWAR in 2019. He specifically struggled to crush fastballs at his normal rate, which might have been due to his (frankly unnecessary) experiment with a different approach.
That approach went out the window in 2020 and Ramirez's numbers benefited accordingly. And while his metrics suggest he was extraordinarily lucky, what they miss is that Ramirez is singularly efficient. He draws walks and avoids strikeouts, and he takes the easy road to power by pulling his fly balls.
Ultimately, 2019 looks like an anomaly. The bottom line is that Ramirez has been a top-three finisher in the AL MVP voting in three of the last four years and could be once again in 2021.
1. Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
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Age: 28
Key 2020 Stats: 60 G, 254 PA, 16 HR, 6 SB, .304 AVG, .370 OBP, .580 SLG, 158 OPS+
2020 WAR: 3.1
As his 2017 and 2019 seasons prove, Manny Machado isn't immune to down years. The latter of those was especially disappointing given that it was the first year of his $300 million pact with the San Diego Padres.
But that water swiftly went under the bridge as Machado looked and played a lot more like himself in 2020.
He did a better job of laying off breaking and offspeed stuff outside the zone, which contributed to improvements with his walk and strikeout rates. That plus the natural thunder in his bat resulted in his expected batting average and slugging percentage finishing in the 95th and 91st percentile, respectively.
Though Machado hasn't won a Gold Glove since 2015, his defense at third base remains above average. Between that and his easily attainable upside as a .300 hitter and 30-to-40 homer slugger, he gets our vote as the surest thing at a position that's oddly uncertain at the outset of 2021.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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