Super Bowl 2021: MVP Favorites and Predictions for Chiefs vs. Buccaneers

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be seeking his second consecutive Super Bowl MVP next Sunday. Tampa Bay Buccaneers signal-caller Tom Brady will be seeking his second in five seasons and fourth overall.

To win the award, though, Brady or Mahomes will likely first have to win the big game—only one player has ever won the MVP while playing for the losing team. They will have competition, too, as a skill-position player like Travis Kelce or a defender like Shaquil Barrett could walk away with the award.

While the MVP is often given to the winning quarterback, two linebackers and a wide receiver have won the award in the last seven Super Bowls.

Here, we'll examine the early odds for Super Bowl LV, along with some predictions and an overview of the game itself.

Super Bowl LV

Matt Ludtke/Associated Press

Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

When: February 7, 2021

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET

TV and Live Stream: CBS, CBS All Access

Line and Over/Under: KC -3, 56.5

Money Line: KC -167, TB +145

Prediction: Kansas City 31, Tampa Bay 28

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook

Overview

Jason Behnken/Associated Press

While the quarterback matchup between Brady and Mahomes is clearly the highlight of this game, it won't be the only deciding factor. Other individual matchups are going to go a long way toward deciding this one.

One matchup to watch will be Tampa's dominant defensive line against Kansas City's injury-depleted offensive line. The Chiefs are expected to be without both starting tackles, as Eric Fisher suffered a torn Achilles in the AFC title game, while Mitchell Schwartz has been out since Week 6.

The Chiefs have survived injuries along the offensive line to this point because of their depth.

"In some cases we've had some young ones step in ... and we've had some older guys step in, and so that combination has been able to get us through some games here," Chiefs coach Andy Reid said, per ESPN's Adam Teicher.

The Buccaneers defensive front—which ranked first against the run and helped produce 48 sacks during the regular season—can wreak havoc on a healthy offensive line. This matchup could get interesting.

Of course, Brady and the Buccaneers will have their hands full with a capable Chiefs defensive front, too. The tandem of Chris Jones and Frank Clark is fully capable of wrecking a passing game plan.

Offensively, Kansas City is going to be tough to handle. While the Chiefs may find running room hard to come by, the speed of players like Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman could be a nightmare for Tampa's 21st-ranked pass defense.

If Mahomes can manage to buy time in the pocket, the Chiefs could force this game into shootout territory. While going toe-to-toe against Brady is never easy, it's a situation that would favor Mahomes and Kansas City.

Expect there to be plenty of game-changing defensive plays in Super Bowl LV but for Mahomes to put the game on his shoulders and pull out a close one late.

The Chiefs won by a field goal during the regular-season matchup, and that could well be the margin here.

MVP Odds and Prediction

Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

Patrick Mahomes 106-100

Tom Brady 21-10

Tyreek Hill 12-1

Travis Kelce 13-1

Leonard Fournette 25-1

Clyde Edwards-Helaire 28-1

Mike Evans 30-1

Chris Godwin 30-1

Devin White 40-1

Tyrann Mathieu 40-1

Darrel Williams 40-1

Shaquil Barrett 50-1

While three of the past seven Super Bowl MVPs have been non-quarterbacks, eight of the past 11 have been signal-callers. There's a strong chance that if this is an offense-oriented game, a quarterback will win it again.

Therefore, fans looking to play the favorites should probably go with the quarterback they believe will win here. While a player like Kelce, Hill or Mike Evans could have a standout game and claim the award, it feels more likely that a quarterback will get the nod in this scenario.

This is similar to how things unfolded in last year's Super Bowl, as Chiefs running back Damien Williams—who had 133 total yards and two touchdowns—easily could have won the award over Mahomes.

Our guess is that if the Chiefs win this one, Mahomes will again be named MVP. If the Bucs win, the storyline of a 43-year-old Brady winning Super Bowl MVP could be too good for voters to pass.

Fans looking for a long shot, though, should consider pass-rushers like Barrett and Jones (66-1). One of them could easily dominate the game and win the award—as Von Miller did while helping Peyton Manning win his second title in Super Bowl 50.

Hill may be the best bet among skill-position players because of his ability to turn short passes into long touchdowns. He probably has the best chance of any pass-catcher to produce enough to win the award while doing so in a way that makes his quarterback look more like a game-manager.

Ultimately, though, this quarterback-centric award is probably going to another quarterback.

Prediction: Mahomes wins MVP.

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