NFL Is Setting Itself Up for a Disaster This Season

The 2017 NFL season was a mess. Too many penalties, too many concussions, too many torn ACLs, too many officiating controversies and too many critical tweets from the president regarding protests during the national anthem. Fans jumped ship, ratings declined, our pets' heads were falling off!

As yours truly wrote in a February, if 2017 wasn't the year of the protest or the year of the injury, it was the year of "What is a catch?"

But a glass-half-empty argument can be made that 2017 was only the tip of the iceberg and that the 2018 season might soon make 2017 look like football nirvana.

Yes, it could get a lot worse. In fact, the groundwork has been laid for a disastrous 2018 NFL campaign. Here are three reasons...

1. The anthem controversy probably isn't going anywhere

John Bazemore/Associated Press

Despite the fact that only about a dozen players were still consistently kneeling or sitting during the national anthem when the 2017 season concluded, Donald Trump continued to take aim at the NFL for allowing its players to peacefully protest systemic injustice.

The league finally gave in this offseason, adopting a new policy in an attempt to assuage both Trump and fans. No more kneeling or sitting, but you're welcome to remain in the locker room instead. 

The policy change backfired in near-comical fashion, with critics from both sides of the aisle either unsatisfied or outraged. That includes Trump, who continues to attack the NFL and the new rule.

"I think in many respects that's worse," the president said at a recent campaign rally, according to the Associated Press. "Isn't that worse than not standing? You know? I think that's worse. You know what? It doesn't play. It doesn't play. I actually think in many ways it's worse."

Players will undoubtedly remain in the locker room, in some cases to make a statement and in other cases because it's not that unusual for players to not be on the sideline during the anthem. And now, every time a player is missing during the anthem, it'll make news, giving Trump and those critical of the protests just as much ammunition as they had last season. 

2. The referee roster has become substantially less experienced

Mark Tenally/Associated Press

Officiating also became a gigantic target for critics last season, especially when several botched calls became significant distractions on Wild Card Weekend. Soon after that, Bleacher Report's Mike Freeman called NFL officiating "broken."

"The officiating has been awful all year," wrote Freeman. "It may not be the worst we've ever seen, but if it isn't, it's damn close."

But it might hit rock bottom this season because four of the league's 17 referees walked away in the offseason, and the retired Ed Hochuli, Jeff Triplette, Terry McAulay and Gene Steratore had a combined 85 years of NFL officiating experience. 

According to the website Football Zebras, this'll be the first season in modern NFL history with four or more first-year referees. 

That has Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio wondering if the league now has a referee problem, which comes at a terrible time considering that sports betting will be legal for the first time in various parts of the country, arguably reducing the margin for error. 

3. The rulebook remains a problem

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

One theory for why the league has encountered so many officiating controversies is the rulebook has become too convoluted. Overwritten rules regarding what constitutes a catch have in recent years resulted in a lack of consistency from officials ruling on receptions, especially those that involve pass-catchers going to the ground. And it felt as though the league faced a new catch-related fuss on a weekly basis in 2017. 

That rule has finally been simplified, but the new language might be just as problematic. 

For a catch to hold up, a receiver has to...

1. Control the ball.

2. Establish himself in bounds with two feet or another body part.

3. Take a third step, reach/extend for the line to gain or display "the ability to perform such an act."

The problem is the first element and part of the third element require plenty of subjectivity. Control might not cause too many headaches, but what is a football move? And are we going to agree whether a player "had the the ability to perform such an act"?

It'll all force officials (many of them new in their roles) to make judgments at lightning speed or once again rely on a replay review system that has become a time-eating, micro-analyzing disaster. 

But on top of all that, the league suddenly and frantically introduced two new potentially dramatic rule changes that pertained to hits involving helmets, and it seems as though nobody knows how said changes will impact the way the game is officiated. 

"In addition to the much-publicized (after it was secretly passed) prohibition on lowering the helmet to initiate contact," Florio wrote this week, "the unnecessary roughness rule has been revised to ban not only ramming, butting and spearing with any part the helmet in a violent or unnecessary manner but all ramming, butting or spearing, with the only limitation being 'incidental' helmet contact while performing 'conventional' blocking and tackling maneuvers."

On the surface, you'd think that would enable or even require officials to throw a flag whenever offensive linemen or rushing defensive players lower their heads while making contact in or around the trenches. That's not realistic, but it speaks to the vagueness of the guideline. Whether it's inside or in the open field, this whole thing just gives already-overburdened officials one more item to think about. 

Disaster waiting to happen

Carolyn Kaster/Associated Press

It's possible the new helmet rules won't create problems and they finally have it right with the new catch rule. It's possible a new batch of fresh-minded referees is precisely what the league needed. It's even possible the restriction on protests during the anthem will cause that issue to dissipate. 

But none of that is likely. Instead, a league that has already suffered several major blows of late could be in for its worst year yet, because it's also possible these major rule changes are deeply flawed and that those flaws will only be magnified by the least experienced group of referees in modern NFL history. 

Throw in Trump's Twitter page and ongoing crises regarding concussions and injuries in general, and you have quite the potential iceberg. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon