Scott Miller's Foolproof 2018 MLB Predictions (Or: Why I Hate Your Team)
Following a thorough examination, much like Major League Baseball and its Pace of Play issues, my goal this year is to fix Pace of Column issues. So this was written with fewer than six visits from my editor, and each of these predictions was made with a running 20-second clock.
That said, don't worry. As usual, these 2018 predictions come specially designed to ensure the proper doctor-recommended dosage of hatred toward your particular team because, well, you know how that goes. Every single slight, snub, backhanded compliment or accidental overlook is personal. You have to take it that way; it's part of the passion that comes with fandom. I get it.
TOP NEWS
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Yankees Want Alternate Unis
Alex Cora Not on Hot Seat
So ready, set, go...formal proof summer is right around the corner, and here's how it will play out.
AL East
An MLB-record 6,105 home runs were hit in 2017, obliterating the record of 5,693 set in 2000. With Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge and J.D. Martinez aboard, the American League East alone might break that mark this year…
Red Sox: J.D. Martinez was a good get, and Boston is the pick to win the division. One through nine, the Red Sox have a better-balanced lineup than the Yankees with fewer strikeouts. If David Price bounces back and the Sox accomplish their goal of lessening Chris Sale's workload so he's stronger in September and October, look out.
Yankees: New manager Aaron Boone may develop a neck strain from watching balls fly out of Yankee Stadium, as long as those gopher balls aren't served up by his own pitchers (Masahiro Tanaka tied for third in the AL with 35 allowed last year). While the offense will make every night the Fourth of July, the key will be whether the rotation can prevent rivals from lighting fireworks. If Tanaka, Luis Severino, CC Sabathia and Sonny Gray stay healthy and productive, look out.
Orioles: Half the fun of this summer will be watching superstar Manny Machado's transition to shortstop as he heads toward free agency this winter (memo to owner Peter Angelos: Really? You're just going to stay in neutral and allow this?). Good signing in starter Alex Cobb. He'll help clean up the mess Andrew Cashner will make.
Blue Jays: Take a good look at third baseman Josh Donaldson because he's going to make a lot of money next year in...St. Louis, perhaps. Sorry, Toronto, tough to watch the window close.
Rays: What's the difference between the new Tropicana Field artificial turf that manager Kevin Cash says "looks very good, very green" and the Rays themselves? They're very green but not very good.
AL Central
More rabbit-ball talk: A ludicrous total of 41 players hit 30 or more homers in the majors last year. It would have been 42 had Cleveland's Jose Ramirez (29) been able to pop one more...
Indians: Corey Kluber is a perennial Cy Young contender, shortstop Francisco Lindor has more fun than anybody and quirky Trevor Bauer hauled weighted baseballs with him to Iceland so his workouts weren't interrupted on vacation last November. "I have so much respect for him," manager Terry Francona said. Same here, for the Indians. Crown them. Again.
Twins: Until shortstop Jorge Polanco was zapped with an 80-game suspension for flunking a performance-enhancing drug test this spring, the Twins had passed every offseason test with flying colors. Adding Jake Odorizzi and Lance Lynn to the rotation, Addison Reed and Fernando Rodney to the bullpen and Logan Morrison to the lineup was the opposite of the tanking about a third of the league is doing. Bravo! Plus, holding another Prince Night this year is sure to bring more good karma to these winners.
Royals: How ironic is it that, as the Royals hit the reset button, the man Eric Hosmer ran home on in Game 5 to win the 2015 World Series against the New York Mets is replacing him at first base? Welcome to Kansas City, Lucas Duda. Now go get the burnt ends at Joe's Kansas City while the Royals rebuild.
White Sox: James Shields as the Opening Day starter against the Royals should come with a laugh track. At least Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert and Michael Kopech are in the pipeline.
Tigers: Will shortstop Jose Iglesias or starter Michael Fulmer be the first Tiger traded as the rebuild moves along in earnest?
AL West
An Eagles fan, Mike Trout spent part of the winter wearing a giant dog mask. No truth to the rumor it was part of the Witness Protection Program because the poor guy has played in just three playoff games in seven years...
Astros: The defending World Series champions will be better in 2018. They have both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole for a full season. The lineup is pretty much back intact. And 2017 AL MVP Jose Altuve now has a contract (five years, $151 million) bigger than he is (5'6" on his tippytoes).
Angels: The Shohei Ohtani Show wasn't exactly ready for Broadway or even prime time this spring. In a perfect world, he was sandbagging just a bit, like Ichiro Suzuki did his first spring in Seattle's camp in 2001. But when then-manager Lou Piniella was concerned and asked whether he had any power, Ichiro went right out and pulled a Cactus League pitch over the fence. Ohtani has had no answers yet. Ian Kinsler and Justin Upton will help Trout, and Albert Pujols is noticeably lighter, which should help his 38-year-old legs.
Mariners: Seattle played a ridiculous nine of 16 home games this spring at night at the suggestion of an expert who recommended maintaining regular sleep patterns would help the players prepare for the regular season. Injuries clobbered the Mariners last year, but even with all that extra sleep, it was business as usual this spring. On the other hand, at least Ichiro will be fun to watch back at Safeco Field.
Rangers: Nice try, Bartolo Colon, but the last roundup may have come this spring (even though he's getting a spot start April 2 after signing a minor league contract). Matt Bush was auditioned as a potential starter (nope, back to the bullpen by spring's end), and Tim Lincecum was signed as a bullpen piece. Things are getting funky in Arlington, Texas, after the glory days earlier this decade.
A's: Hot prospect A.J. Puk made a gallant run toward the rotation this spring, and we'll likely see him soon. Third baseman Matt Chapman, new center fielder Dustin Fowler...Oakland is back at it, building with good young talent. Check back in a couple of years to see whether that talent has been traded after getting too expensive. Again.
AL Wild Cards
The times, they aren't a-changing…
Twins and Yankees. Sorry to be so boring by staying with the same AL playoff teams from a year ago. Then again, I often order a vanilla cone when surrounded by Baskin-Robbins' 31 flavors too.
NL East
Where contenders rack up wins against tanking teams the way some folks gorge on Krispy Kremes…
Nationals: There comes a point where you believe hubris and karma are tougher opponents for the Nats than the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers ever were. They chew through managers the way my dog chews through bones. And know what? Both the Nats and my dog have won the same number of postseason series in their lives. All eyes are on Bryce Harper on deck to free agency.
Mets: It is with great hesitation that I, ahem, announce that, seriously, the Mets are, um, the team to watch in the National League after going 70-92 last season. Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler are healthy. Though Wheeler will open at Triple-A, how can you go wrong there? And veterans Jay Bruce, Adrian Gonzalez and Todd Frazier know how to win. In fact, it's tempting to pick the Mets to win this division (again, see: the Nats and karma).
Phillies: Welcome, Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana. Even with those two, there's a Louisiana Purchase amount of land to make up after the Phillies finished 66-96 last year. But unusual new manager Gabe Kapler probably has some recommendations for kale shakes and sunshine that will have the Phillies back in no time.
Braves: Good luck to Alex Anthopoulos. The last Atlanta general manager, John Coppolella, was suspended for life from MLB. But as soon as phenom Ronald Acuna Jr. arrives to play outfield—the guess here is by May—the Braves will be worth watching.
Marlins: With an outfield of Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton...oh yeah. Traded. Every freaking one of them. Next…
NL Central
Hey, Pirates and Reds, try not to suck, OK?
Cubs: It's hard not to see the Cubs three-peating in this division. With Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber and new closer Brandon Morrow, they just have too much for everyone else. Plus, with Jon Lester on his new program of bouncing balls to first base when he fields bunts, the Cubs will bounce to the top. Again.
Cardinals: The best news out of Jupiter this spring was Adam Wainwright's healthy arm—and that he was snapping off his curveball as crisply as Chris Rock does jokes. (Then, ah jeez, his hamstring knocked him out for Opening Day.) In Marcell Ozuna, Tommy Pham and Dexter Fowler, the Cards have excellent outfield defense. When phenom Alex Reyes joins the staff in May, it will turbocharge this team.
Brewers: Outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain are the best new flavors in Milwaukee since they started serving Raspberry Cheesecake and Monkey Madness at Gilles Frozen Custard. But oh, that pitching. Why didn't this team go for Alex Cobb or even Lance Lynn?
Reds: Joey Votto is suitable for framing, and Scott Schebler smashed 30 home runs last summer. But if manager Bryan Price finds a winning combination with this group of pitchers, he's David Copperfield.
Pirates: It was fun while the winning lasted in one of America's greatest sports cities. All the best, Josh Harrison.
NL West
Definition of stealing money: Matt Kemp was the talk of the Dodgers' camp after having shed 40-plus pounds over the winter. Atlanta and San Diego should ask for a refund from Matt, who showed up out of shape and was paid millions.
Dodgers: Camp ended on a painful note when third baseman and team MVP Justin Turner was hit with a pitch and broke his left wrist. So Logan Forsythe will move to third from second, with Chase Utley and Enrique Hernandez expected to pick up the slack at second in the interim. This team has so much depth it is built to withstand injuries. Though it was impossible to foresee Matt Kemp as the Opening Day cleanup hitter. Gulp.
Diamondbacks: Adding Steven Souza Jr. after losing J.D. Martinez will be a nice recovery, as soon as Souza returns from the disabled list (right pectoral strain). Robbie Ray developed into an ace last summer, and Zack Greinke's curveball is next to godliness. Paul Goldschmidt remains the most underrated superstar in the game. With manager Torey Lovullo directing this talented team, there is no letup in sight. If things break right, the D-backs can end the Dodgers' five-year grip on the NL West title.
Rockies: Colorado is the least trustworthy team in the majors because of Coors Field. Just when you think the Rockies will be good, they aren't. And when you think they'll be bad, they turn on you then too. If young pitchers Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela and Jon Gray continue to progress, this summer could be even more fun than the last. And can everyone please take a few moments to appreciate the off-the-charts awesomeness of Nolan Arenado at third base?
Giants: On second thought, maybe dirt bikes are safer for Madison Bumgarner than fielding a ball with his pitching hand. What a way to end camp, with Bumgarner suffering a broken left hand (he'll miss four-to-six weeks) and Jeff Samardzija suffering a strained right pectoral muscle (out three-to-five weeks). Many around the game are quietly rooting for the Giants after they went old school and added veterans Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria, bucking the trend to treat vets as disposables, but San Francisco is playing from behind from the start with the rotation injuries.
Padres: Prediction within these predictions: Center fielder Manuel Margot is on his way to superstardom. And when Fernando Tatis Jr. and Luis Urias arrive later this summer or the next, this is going to be one fun group to watch. The downside is, with the current rotation, this isn't always going be a fun group to watch in 2018. Just sometimes.
NL Wild Cards
Snakes alive, again, in the NL Wild Card…
Mets and Diamondbacks. The Mets have a wild-card advantage in that three teams in their division barely have a pulse.
World Series
Indians over Diamondbacks: Cleveland ripped through a record 22 consecutive wins late last season and was primed to get back to the World Series before the Yankees so rudely interrupted them in the American League Division Series. Houston is the most talented team in the AL, but it is next to impossible to repeat as champs in baseball. No team has repeated since the 1998-2000 Yankees. Look for Cleveland to exact revenge on the Yanks this year...and the D-backs to snakebite the Dodgers.
MVPs
Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees (AL): Look out! Here comes (duck!) another (crash!) home run (thud!) ball.
Bryce Harper, Nationals (NL): The sweet scent of impending free agency so often leads to career years…
Cy Youngs
Chris Sale, Red Sox (AL): This will finally be the year someone figures out a way not to grind down Sale by August. And that someone is the contending Red Sox.
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (NL): The guy did not allow an earned run in 21.1 Cactus League innings this year. Translated into the regular season, that means...aw, c'mon, I'm joking. I know he's not going to post a 0.00 ERA. I know spring training stats mean nothing. But if his back holds up, who knows?
Rookies of the Year
Dustin Fowler, Athletics (AL): Few stories are more heartwarming than watching Fowler play center field after he wrecked his right knee in his first game after the Yankees called him up last year. He didn't even get a plate appearance with New York before he moved to Oakland in the Sonny Gray deal.
Scott Kingery, Phillies (NL): I was so close to going with Acuna. But everybody is going to pick him, Kingery is getting a head start by opening the season in the majors, and, besides, colleague Danny Knobler got me all excited about Kingery with this piece. So, of course, if I swing and miss on this prediction, blame Danny!
Managers of the Year
Terry Francona, Indians (AL): If upstarts Aaron Boone (Yankees) or Alex Cora (Red Sox) don't swipe it...
Mickey Callaway, Mets (NL): With this pitching staff and his pitching expertise, the stars are aligned for Francona's former pitching coach in Cleveland.
Comeback Player of the Year
All the best to our friend Ken Rosenthal, who missed spring training following back surgery but will come roaring back onto your television sets with the first Fox Game of the Week on Saturday and resumed writing at The Athletic this week. He is the slam-dunk favorite for comeback player, whether he's wearing a bow tie, a neck tie or tie-dye (which I might even pay to see)!
Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.
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