Matt Miller's Scouting Notebook: What the NFL World Wants to See from Josh Allen
Friday you'll wake up, maybe cook breakfast, drive to work or school and start your routine. Chances are, it will be another normal day for you. For Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen, it's one of the biggest of his life.
Pro days don't get the hype that the Senior Bowl or NFL Scouting Combine generate, but don't overlook the fact that Allen's draft stock—and his peers' stock—is still fluid. A good pro day won't make him the draft's No. 1 overall pick, but if the Cleveland Browns are considering Allen, it could help his case following an already strong offseason.
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Some analysts will tell you pro days don't matter. They'll point to the 649 passes he threw at Wyoming and say, "Can't you scout him off that?" Yes, we can, but there's value in seeing a player live. There is also value in spending time with a prospect and getting onto their turf to see how they operate. That's what NFL teams will do while Allen is working through a script of throws and getting ready for one more major job interview.
What do franchises look for in a pro day? I asked one high-level executive what his team will watch at Allen's workout. "Mostly want to see how he spins the ball, if his mechanics are still improved like what we saw in Mobile and Indy, and then see how he handles the stress of the day," he said.
That last line is one people forget about when judging a pro day's importance. Seeing how any player handles the stress is key, but it's crucial for a quarterback. Allen will run through a scripted workout, but all eyes will be on him. That doesn't happen at the Senior Bowl or combine where there's a group of quarterbacks working at the same time. The spotlight will be bright, and Allen can't let himself be burned by it.
Here's what else is going on this week:
- News, rumors and notes from around the league
- Updated Round 1 draft order
- Risers, fallers and sleepers
- Stick to Football podcast: Analyzing the Jets/Colts trade; guest Leighton Vander Esch
The Scout's Report
• File this one away for your mock drafts: I'm hearing Washington is seriously interested in finding a starting running back in this class. I expect the team to consider Derrius Guice at pick No. 13 overall or to address the need in Round 2.
• Speaking of running backs...I've never heard of this happening.
No running back coaches showed up to see Penn State's Saquon Barkley at his pro day Tuesday, so he couldn't do a workout. It says a lot about how highly teams view Barkley that running back coaches aren't making the trip to see him.
• Florida wide receiver Antonio Callaway has legitimate top-50 talent, but multiple team sources have told me he's off their boards. Callaway was accused of sexual assault and underwent a Title IX hearing in 2016 (he was cleared after admitting he was too high to perform sexually) and has been cited for possession of marijuana. Callaway was suspended for the entire 2017 season at Florida because of his involvement in the team's alleged credit card fraud scheme.
• The Cleveland Browns have been busy working out quarterbacks. Franchise owner Jimmy Haslam even attended USC's pro day to sit with quarterback Sam Darnold's parents Wednesday. Before that, the team worked out UCLA's Josh Rosen. It's no secret the Browns are drafting a passer at No. 1 overall.
• On that note, following USC's pro day, one college scouting director texted me that, "Darnold is the favorite to go #1. I'll be shocked if he isn't the pick."
• The Miami Dolphins worked out Baker Mayfield on Wednesday. The Oklahoma product has also worked out for the Buffalo Bills and has visits scheduled with the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets, per sources with those teams.
• The Dolphins' interest in quarterbacks seems real. Team sources tell me they've also met with Louisville's Lamar Jackson.
• Oklahoma tackle Orlando Brown last made headlines for his historically bad combine performance, but team sources with the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals confirmed to me this week they've met with him recently.
• What does the Jason Pierre-Paul trade mean for the NFL draft?
Based on my talks with league sources, it doesn't change much. JPP was viewed as overpaid and overrated in New York, and the team's new defense better fits Olivier Vernon and Kareem Martin. Of course, NC State's Bradley Chubb is loved as a prospect. He would be an awesome fit at weak-side linebacker in the Giants' 3-4 scheme. The team is in good shape with the No. 2 overall pick.
The Big Board
1. RB Saquon Barkley, Penn State
2. EDGE Bradley Chubb, North Carolina State
3. OG Quenton Nelson, Notre Dame
4. QB Sam Darnold, USC
5. S Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama
6. QB Josh Allen, Wyoming
7. QB Josh Rosen, UCLA
8. CB Denzel Ward, Ohio State
9. S Derwin James, Florida State
10. LB Tremaine Edmunds, Virginia Tech
11. LB Roquan Smith, Georgia
12. QB Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
13. OT Connor Williams, Texas
14. DL Vita Vea, Washington
15. CB Josh Jackson, Iowa
16. WR Calvin Ridley, Alabama
17. EDGE Marcus Davenport, UTSA
18. LB Rashaan Evans, Alabama
19. LB Leighton Vander Esch, Boise State
20. C Billy Price, Ohio State
21. OT Mike McGlinchey, Notre Dame
22. C James Daniels, Iowa
23. OG Isaiah Wynn, Georgia
24. LB Malik Jefferson, Texas
25. RB Derrius Guice, LSU
26. EDGE Harold Landry, Boston College
27. DL Da'Ron Payne, Alabama
28. EDGE Sam Hubbard, Ohio State
29. CB Jaire Alexander, Louisville
30. OT Kolton Miller, UCLA
31. RB Sony Michel, Georgia
32. DL Maurice Hurst, Michigan
Parting Shots
10. With trades starting to shift the opening round, each week I'm going to post an updated first-round order. Some weeks it won't change, but at the rate this offseason is going, there might be many adjustments between now and the April 26-28 draft.
1. Cleveland Browns
2. New York Giants
3. New York Jets (from Indianapolis Colts)
4. Cleveland Browns (from Houston Texans)
5. Denver Broncos
6. Indianapolis Colts (from New York Jets)
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8. Chicago Bears
9. San Francisco 49ers
10. Oakland Raiders
11. Miami Dolphins
12. Buffalo Bills (from Cincinnati Bengals)
13. Washington
14. Green Bay Packers
15. Arizona Cardinals
16. Baltimore Ravens
17. Los Angeles Chargers
18. Seattle Seahawks
19. Dallas Cowboys
20. Detroit Lions
21. Cincinnati (from Buffalo Bills)
22. Buffalo (from Kansas City Chiefs)
23. Los Angeles Rams
24. Carolina Panthers
25. Tennessee Titans
26. Atlanta Falcons
27. New Orleans Saints
28. Pittsburgh Steelers
29. Jacksonville Jaguars
30. Minnesota Vikings
31. New England Patriots
32. Philadelphia Eagles
9. It's pro-day season, and because of that there is a lot of Twitter debate about the value of "working out in shorts."
Here's how I look at it: If the NFL finds something important, I find it important.
There is obvious value to these workouts or teams wouldn't send owners, coaches and general managers to them. Bill Belichick would not be in South Carolina working players out if there weren't value to a pro day. It might be fun to crap on pro days because they're not "football," but teams find value in seeing the players in person and being able to put them through a hands-on workout.
8. I went on a mini-Twitter rant about this earlier in the week, but let's talk for a minute about the outlandish value teams place on draft picks.
The San Francisco 49ers traded a second-rounder (that became pick No. 43 overall) for a franchise quarterback prospect in Jimmy Garoppolo.
The New York Jets were forced to trade three second-rounders and the No. 6 overall pick for the chance to draft a franchise QB prospect.
Now, you could argue the Jets are paying more to pay less. The quarterback they draft at No. 3 overall will not make the $137.5 million over five years that Garoppolo will, and there is value in building around the cheap cost of a rookie quarterback.
And still, NFL teams will hand over a ridiculous amount of talent in exchange for draft picks. Proven, established players are traded for nickels on the dollar.
It's worth thinking about when evaluating why teams move on from players and why they hoard draft picks. It's just the cheaper way to operate in a league with a salary cap.
7. I found this note from Peter King's MMQB interesting:
"Queried about how many starting-caliber players they felt were in this draft, six scouting people or GMs over the weekend came back with these figures: 35, "40 to 50," "about 70," 73, "75-ish," 83 and 111. I asked because I wanted to figure out whether it made sense for the Colts to try to trade down one more time.
ASTERISK TO STARTING PLAYER INTERLUDE. One of those teams said if you considered "situational starters" like third corners or slot corners, slot receivers or slotback/receiver types like Christian McCaffrey, he'd add 32 players to his team's total."
Every team will have a different number of starting-caliber players in this draft (just like every franchise has a different number of first-round prospects), but this seems fairly high considering what we've been told about this being a weak overall class.
6. Prospects are used to being scouted by NFL teams and all that means at their pro days, but how would you like to be scouted by the WWE? That's what happened at Penn State's pro day, according to the school. Maybe Vince McMahon is looking for XFL stars? Or the next Rock?
5. NFL Draft Sleeper: Jessie Bates, S, Wake Forest
This safety class is pretty dang good, which means sometimes it's easy to overlook above-average players. That's what's happened with versatile Wake Forest safety Jessie Bates.
If Bates played at LSU, we'd be calling him the next Jamal Adams, but he was hidden to some extent at Wake. However, his tape shows a special blend of physicality and coverage athleticism. There are some deficiencies to his game (banged up in 2017, thin frame at 6'1", 200 pounds, overly aggressive), but I see Bates as a starting-caliber safety.
4. NFL Draft Riser: Vita Vea, DL, Washington
One great thing about NFL Draft 400 project time is it forces me to finalize tape and grades on players. As that happens, prospects can make big moves up and down the board. This week's biggest mover is Washington defensive tackle Vita Vea.
For a big man (6'4", 347 lbs), he has shocking athleticism and moves well laterally and up the field. Vea is more than just a gap-plugging anchor. He's also more than a Danny Shelton clone. Vea might just be the next Haloti Ngata.
3. NFL Draft Faller: Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU
A strong performance at the combine could have pushed Sutton into the Round 1 conversation, but in my talks with NFL scouts, it sounds like teams left Indianapolis concerned about his ability to separate from defenders. "He might be another [Laquon] Treadwell, honestly," is what one scout texted me this week. Sutton is still a top-50 player, but his chances of going in Round 1 seem slim.
2. A pretty cool Stick to Football announcement: In April we'll have new pods coming out every Monday morning called "Mock Draft Mondays." In these episodes I'll be joined by Connor Rogers and Mello to do a full Round 1 mock once a week. Of course, we'll still do our regular Wednesday and Friday shows. You can subscribe on Apple Podcasts.
1. A new Stick to Football episode is ready for download. If you haven't already, subscribe and leave a 5-star review!
This week, Rogers and I look at how the Jets-Colts trade shakes up the NFL draft and give you our insight on who each team should draft. First-round prospect Leighton Vander Esch of Boise State also joins us this week.
Matt Miller covers the NFL and NFL draft for Bleacher Report.
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