Predicting Perfect Landing Spots, Contracts for the NFL's Biggest Free Agents

We're still two weeks from the opening of free agency across the NFL, and there's already been enough speculation about this year's top free agents to fill a stadium. 

And that's just the stuff about Kirk Cousins.

Google a prominent free agent and any of the NFL's 32 teams and you'll likely find an article connecting the two. Or five. Or 10.

Or in Cousins' case, approximately all the articles ever.

But there are certain realities regarding free agency. Many of the top names won't get there to begin with. Drew Brees isn't going to see the open market. Neither is Le'Veon Bell. Or Demarcus Lawrence.

Sorry.

There's also the matter of fit. And the not-so-insignificant matter of the piles and piles of money required to sign a free agent. Teams can (and will) create additional cap room, and there might be a surprise deal or two. But the odds the Philadelphia Eagles will be big spenders this spring are slim.

They just don't have the cap space.

However, for every free agent there's a team that appears to check every box. The need's there. So is the fit. And the room to sign that player to a contract commensurate to their experience, accomplishments and what the market will bear.

For each top free agent, there's a landing spot that's just...perfect. Hand meets glove.

And a contract that will get that hand to shaking.

Salary cap data courtesy of Over the Cap

Kirk Cousins

Mark Lennihan/Associated Press

Perfect Landing Spot: Minnesota Vikings

Might as well start with the contract that's going to reset the market at the quarterback position—again.

There's very little question that when free agency opens in 2018, the biggest winner is going to be Kirk Cousins. The 29-year-old quarterback is all but certainly on the cusp of becoming the highest-paid player in the history of the National Football League.

Some of the numbers being kicked around are just staggering. Per Brian Costello of the New York Post, a league source informed him the New York Jets (one of the leading suitors for Cousins) might be willing to offer him a jaw-dropping $60 million in guarantees in the first year of a new deal. Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk reported the Jets could guarantee the entirety of Cousins' new mega-deal.

Here's the thing, though: No matter where Cousins lands, he's going to make a fortune. Whether it's New York, Cleveland, Arizona or Denver, there's going to be a truck full of cash waiting.

Metaphorically speaking, of course.

However, Cousins indicated to Florio on PFT Live that it isn't all about the Benjamins.

"Is money a part of it? Sure. Is it the only thing? No," Cousins said. "It is about winning, and that's what I want more than anything, so I'm going to be willing to make sacrifices or do what has to be done to make sure I'm in the best possible position to win, and that's what the focus is going to be."

If that's more than smoke, there's one team that stands above the other contestants in the Cousins sweepstakes—and this one's a late arrival to the party.

As Charean Williams reported for PFT, talk surrounding the Minnesota Vikings' reported interest in Cousins has increased since it became known Minnesota would not apply the franchise tag to Case Keenum.

The Vikings are in a unique position relative to teams like the Browns and Jets, in that Minnesota offers a much better chance to win right away. This is a team that came one blowout loss short of advancing to Super Bowl LII.

And unlike teams such as the Broncos and Cardinals, the Vikings have ample salary-cap space: over $48 million. 

If the Vikings are serious about Cousins, they can offer a situation and compensation package that no other team in the league can match.

Contract Terms: Five years, $145 million ($95 million guaranteed)

AJ McCarron

Frank Victores/Associated Press

Perfect Landing Spot: Arizona Cardinals

With Carson Palmer deciding to call it a career, the Arizona Cardinals are among the teams in the NFL in need of an immediate upgrade at quarterback.

Unfortunately, the team is also all but out of the running for most of the top options in 2018, whether it's via free agency or this year's draft. With the 15th overall pick, the Redbirds pick too late in Round 1 to land a top rookie. And Arizona's $21 million and change in cap space isn't enough to get the Cardinals into the Cousins sweepstakes.

Luckily for the Cardinals, a new name entered the fray not too long ago that brings substantial upside at a lower cost than Cousins.

This isn't to say that it's going to be cheap to sign AJ McCarron. The words "cheap" and "quarterback" aren't generally mentioned in the same sentence in the NFL, and Florio set the hypothetical bar for McCarron's new contract at about $19 million a season.

That's a lot of money for a player who has started all of four games in as many seasons while serving as Andy Dalton's understudy in Cincinnati.

However, there's a reason teams will be lining up to pitch McCarron in two weeks or so. In those four starts back in 2015, McCarron completed 62 percent of his passes with five touchdowns against one interception. McCarron nearly led the Bengals to a win in Denver over a Broncos team that went on to win the Super Bowl and would have won a playoff game against the Pittsburgh Steelers had Vontaze Burfict and Adam Jones not decided to see who could be the bigger chucklehead.

In other words, there's upside to go with the risk. McCarron's the best bet in free agency for teams that want an upgrade under center who is more than a one- or two-year fix but don't have the cabbage for Cousins.

Arizona also can offer things that others cannot. An opportunity to (in theory) compete for a playoff spot right away. Pro Bowl offensive talent in wideout Larry Fitzgerald and tailback David Johnson. And a formidable defense.

Add in that in the desert McCarron wouldn't have to worry about the team turning around and drafting competition to start in the top 10, and you have a solid fit.

Contract Terms: Four years, $75 million ($38 million guaranteed)

Sam Bradford

Michael Perez/Associated Press

Perfect Landing Spot: Cleveland Browns

It's entirely possible that Sam Bradford will have to wait a bit longer before he knows where he will be playing in 2018. If Kirk Cousins is the gold medal of the free-agent Olympics at quarterback and A.J. McCarron's the silver, then Bradford would slot squarely in bronze territory—at least among passers who look likely to be switching mailing addresses in 2018.

This isn't to say Bradford can't play. The 30-year-old set a (since-broken) NFL record for completion percentage back in 2016, and in his lone full game last season, Bradford lit up the New Orleans Saints for 346 yards and three touchdowns.

But since being selected with the first overall pick back in 2010, Bradford's career has been littered with serious injuries. He tore his ACL back in 2013, missing the second half of that campaign and all of the following one after re-injuring the knee. Last year Bradford made it through just that Week 1 win over the Saints before that same knee again ended his season.

When Bradford's on the field, he's a capable NFL starter. But he's just missed too much time to be counted on as a true franchise quarterback—or to be paid like one. Bradford's played in seven or more games just twice in the last five seasons.

However, if an NFL team is searching for a short-term fix or a "bridge" starter to hold down the fort while a rookie develops behind him, then Bradford could potentially patch that hole quite nicely.

Say, a team that has both the most salary-cap space in the NFL and the first overall pick in April's draft.

That's the situation the Cleveland Browns find themselves in this offseason. And if the Browns miss out on the high-end free agents this spring (as I expect they will), the most logical fallback position is pairing a veteran with that first (or fourth) overall pick.

It's likely that wherever Bradford signs, it will be a short-term deal similar to the two-year, $36 million pact he inked with the Eagles back in 2016.

The Browns can afford that (with plenty to spare to add talent elsewhere) and could use some insurance if they do make that badly needed Round 1 investment at quarterback.

Welcome to Cleveland, Sam. And condolences.

Contract Terms: Three years, $42 million ($20 million guaranteed)

Terrelle Pryor

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Perfect Landing Spot: Cleveland Browns

Terrelle Pryor isn't the best wide receiver who could theoretically hit the open market in March. But he's probably the best wideout who's going to actually get there. It's unlikely the Jacksonville Jaguars let that happen with Allen Robinson, and despite a disappointing 2017, the Rams should get something done with Sammy Watkins.

Pryor's a different story, though, because where disappointing is concerned, Watkins can't hold a candle to his disastrous season in Washington. One year after topping 1,000 receiving yards with the Cleveland Browns, Pryor managed just 20 catches for 240 yards and a single touchdown in nine games for the Redskins before an ankle injury put him out of his misery.

Pryor bet big on himself with a one-year deal, and that dice roll came up snake-eyes.

His best bet at getting his career back on track lies with pretending that 2017 never happened. And Step 1 is a return to Cleveland.

Yes, Cleveland.

Say what you will about head coach Hue Jackson and the Browns, but the fact remains that Pryor reeled in 77 catches for 1,007 yards and four scores while serving as the Browns' top wideout two years ago. Yes, Cleveland's situation at quarterback isn't good, but it's not significantly worse than it was in 2016—and it's a safe bet there will be a new face in town at the position when training camp opens.

Or two. Or three.

There's also a new face at wide receiver. Well, technically it's an old face. With Josh Gordon back in the fold, Pryor wouldn't be the team's No. 1 receiver—or face the pressure that goes along with it. It's not hard to see why a Pryor/Gordon duo would appeal to the Browns.

Two big-bodied outside receivers with great speed? Why would an NFL team want that?

The money certainly isn't an issue. The Browns are flush with cap space, and after last year's fiasco, it isn't going to take a fortune to land Pryor, even in a thin free-agent market at the position.

Contract Terms: Two years, $12.75 million ($7 million guaranteed)

Nate Solder

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Perfect Landing Spot: Houston Texans

There are two truths where free-agent offensive tackles are concerned. The first is that really good blindside protectors don't usually get anywhere near the open market.

There was a time when Nate Solder was considered among the best in the business at left tackle. The 29-year-old has never made the Pro Bowl, but when you're trusted with guarding the Golden Boy's blind side, people just assume you must be good at it.

However, in 2017 at least, Solder scuffled for the New England Patriots. Brady was sacked just 15 times two years ago, but in 2017, that number more than doubled to 35. Per Jim Ayello and Zak Keefer of the Indianapolis Star, Solder ranked a so-so 32nd among offensive tackles at Pro Football Focus. And with a younger (and cheaper) alternative to be had in Cameron Fleming, it's not hard to imagine the Patriots moving on from Solder this offseason.

That's because of the second truth about free-agent tackles. Even the mediocre ones fetch top dollar on the open market. Matt Kalil (Carolina Panthers) and Riley Reiff (Minnesota Vikings) both landed deals worth well over $50 million in recent years.

Neither is a worldbeater.

Spotrac estimates Solder will receive a deal that averages over $13 million a season, and it's more likely than not the pact will be longer than the two years Spotrac has listed.

It's what happens when demand far outweighs supply. And when it comes to demand at the tackle spot, no team in the NFL can beat the Houston Texans.

Houston's offensive line was a hot mess in 2017. Only the Indianapolis Colts allowed more sacks than Houston's 54. With $63.2 million in cap space in 2018, the Texans are in a position where they can afford to attack that line in free agency. They also don't have much choice—the team doesn't have a draft pick until the third round after dealing their first- and second-rounders to Cleveland.

Solder may not be worth the money he's about to receive from a performance perspective, but that doesn't mean teams won't be lined up, checkbook in hand.

New Texans GM Brian Gaine will be right at the head of the line.

Contract Terms: Three years, $40.5 million ($20 million guaranteed)

Andrew Norwell

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Perfect Landing Spot: San Francisco 49ers

On some level, it's hard to believe Andrew Norwell is even going to hit the open market. At 26, Norwell is just now entering the prime of his career. He's coming off a 2017 season in which he was named a first-team All-Pro.

By just about any objective measure, Norwell is one of the best guards in the National Football League. Per Pro Football Focus, he's the highest-graded lineman in the NFL who is about to hit free agency.

Unfortunately, Norwell and the Carolina Panthers are caught in something of a numbers crunch. Carolina has just $27 million in cap space this year, and that's after making a number of veteran cuts to free up wiggle room. The team also just handed guard Trai Turner a four-year, $45 million extension a year ago.

Combine those realities, and as Joe Person of the Charlotte Observer noted, the writing is on the wall that Norwell will be changing teams in 2018.

Moving's a pain, to be sure. But there will be plenty of ways for Norwell to ease that pain. Millions of ways, in fact. Norwell could easily become the highest-paid interior lineman in league history, inking a deal in excess of the five-year, $60 million contract Kevin Zeitler got from the Cleveland Browns last season.

It's good work if you can get it. But that whopper of a contract also limits the number of suitors for Norwell's services. Not every team can afford to sink $12 million (or more) in cap space into the guard position. Or needs to.

There are a few, though—teams that could use an upgrade along the offensive line and also have the green to absorb Norwell's contract.

Chief among those teams is the San Francisco 49ers.

Even after making Jimmy Garoppolo the highest-paid player in the NFL, the 49ers are still sitting on the fifth-most cap space in the NFL in 2018—just under $70 million. And after investing all that coin in their franchise quarterback, improving the protection in front of him is a priority for the team.

General manager John Lynch has shown he's willing to spend cash and make splashes. So don't be surprised when he does it again.

Contract Terms: Five years, $61.5 million ($32 million guaranteed)

Sheldon Richardson

Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

Perfect Landing Spot: Washington Redskins

While there are players along the defensive line that have fans and front offices alike salivating over the prospect of their arrival in free agency, Demarcus Lawrence is not one of them. He will absolutely, 100 percent be franchise-tagged by the Dallas Cowboys. Ezekiel Ansah has already been tagged by the Detroit Lions, per Tori Petry of the team's website.

However, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com, the Seattle Seahawks are expected to remain true to form (they haven't tagged a player since 2010) with Sheldon Richardson. And while the team would like to keep Richardson around for the long haul, Seattle's war chest of just $13 million and change is going to make that tricky.

Richardson's numbers in 2017 (44 tackles, one sack) weren't great, but he was a force inside for the Seahawks—so much so that Spotrac estimates Richardson will command about $12 million a season on his next deal.

That's a lot of cash for a player with just 7.5 sacks over the last three seasons. Quite a few teams just can't afford it. Among the ones who can, not that many have a $12 million hole along the defensive front. And among those, not that many are going to be eager to make a massive financial commitment to a player with Richardson's history of discipline issues and off-field dust-ups.

There is, however, one team that stands out. A team in dire need of an edge-setter with nearly $50 million in cap space and a history of jumping in with both feet in free agency.

Hail to the Redskins.

Washington was dead last in the National Football League in run defense in 2017, surrendering 134.1 yards per game. The Redskins appear set at one end spot with 2017 first-round pick Jonathan Allen, but the slot opposite him is a question mark.

Team owner Daniel Snyder has never been shy about shelling out money in free agency; Washington's recent acquisition of quarterback Alex Smith belies a team that believes it can compete now, and Richardson's most productive seasons with the New York Jets were spent as a 3-4 end.

Contract Terms: Five years, $63 million ($36 million guaranteed)

NaVorro Bowman

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Perfect Landing Spot: Indianapolis Colts

NaVorro Bowman's one of the hardest free agents of 2017 to peg. There was a time that the 29-year-old was arguably the most feared inside linebacker in football. Bowman's been to three Pro Bowls, and the Oakland run defense got a lot better last year once he joined the team.

That's the thing, though: Bowman only joined the Raiders because the San Francisco 49ers released him midseason. A torn ACL and ruptured Achilles tendon have combined to sap some of his speed.

Bowman's still a wily veteran and a force against the run, but he can be had in coverage—a real problem in today's pass-happy NFL.

Even so, it's maybe a 50-50 bet that the Raiders will let Bowman get to free agency. Oakland's not exactly swimming in cap space (about $18 million), but Bowman's new deal shouldn't be a knee-knocker, and the Raiders aren't exactly deep behind him at the position…at all.

However, if free agency opens and Bowman's not yet signed, it may be moving time again. Not because the Raiders don't want him, but because another team wants him more.

Say, a team sitting on nearly $75 million in salary-cap space with a gaping hole in the middle of the defense.

To say that the Colts need linebacker help is the understatement of the offseason. The Colts were 26th in run defense last year in large part because of subpar play at the position, and the team's "best" inside linebacker (Jon Bostic) is about to hit free agency himself.

As if that wasn't enough, there are big changes afoot in Indy in 2018. A new head coach in Frank Reich, new defensive coordinator in Matt Eberflus and a new four-man front.

Bowman may not be the first-team All-Pro he once was, but as an experienced veteran who could step in and lead a revamped LB corps, he's significantly better than the options Indy has now. And the Colts have the resources to front-load a deal other teams would have trouble matching.

Combine Bowman with a young Day 2 pick, and Eberflus' new defense will be off to a good start.

Contract Terms: Three years, $18 million ($10 million guaranteed)

Trumaine Johnson

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Best Landing Spot: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The trade that will bring Marcus Peters to the Los Angeles Rams when the league year opens signals the dawn of a new day in La La Land.

It also signals the end of an old one, though. With Peters sure to command a pretty penny in his pending contract extension, the Rams are unlikely to be able to afford both him and free-agent-to-be Trumaine Johnson.

That will thrust the 28-year-old onto the open market, and while Johnson's never been to the Pro Bowl, Sean Wagner-McGough of CBS Sports listed him as the No. 1 option available to NFL teams in 2018.

"Over the past three seasons, he's snagged 10 interceptions, two of which he returned the distance, and recorded 41 pass breakups," Wagner-McGough wrote. "In 2015, he allowed a 55.0 passer rating in coverage—second among qualified cornerbacks—according to Pro Football Focus. In 2016, he allowed an 89.4 passer rating in coverage, which ranked 34th. And this past season, he allowed a 79.8 passer rating in coverage, which ranked 36th. He might not be a top-five cornerback, but he's in the top-tier. Someone is going to pay him like it."

Enter the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

There wasn't a team in the entire NFL that struggled more mightily defending the pass in 2017 than the Buccaneers, who checked in dead last at 260.6 yards allowed per game.

The Buccaneers need help in the secondary in a big way, and that's before taking into account the pending free agency (and possible departure) of veteran corner Brent Grimes.

The team has plenty of wiggle room to make a big splash at the position. Only three teams have more cap space than the Buccaneers, who are sitting on a war chest of over $70 million.

It's an ideal fit: a glaring need, a player who fills that need and the resources to pony up the sizable deal it's going to take to land Johnson.

Contract Terms: Five years, $67.5 million ($38 million guaranteed)

Malcolm Butler

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Perfect Landing Spot: New York Jets

If it seemed like Lamarcus Joyner was going to hit free agency, this article would end with a safety. But according to the NFL Network's Mike Garofalo (via colleague Kevin Patra), the Los Angeles Rams are leaning toward tagging the versatile 27-year-old.

The other top safeties (Kenny Vaccaro, Morgan Burnett, Eric Reid) may all be moving on this spring. But there's a reason for that—deficiencies in coverage that muddy the waters greatly when trying to peg their next home and contract.

Besides, it would be remiss of me not to include the biggest mystery man of free agency in 2018 here.

Not that long ago, it appeared that one way or another, Malcolm Butler was headed for a windfall. Whether it was in New England or elsewhere, Butler was going to command a deal that paid in excess of $10 million a season.

That was before Butler was mysteriously benched in Super Bowl LII. Now Butler's future is about as cloudy as it gets, although after spending the Super Bowl as a spectator, it's a safe bet Butler's days in Beantown are finished.

Prospective suitors face quite the quandary with Butler. Is the player they're about to invest a pile of money in the promising young "shutdown" corner who ended his first year as the hero of Super Bowl XLIX? Or the cornerback who couldn't get on the field in the biggest game of the year last month, even while the Patriots were being scorched defensively?

There's a lot we don't know about Butler's benching. We may never know—at least not until long after he's out of New England. But there are going to be teams that want to believe Butler's still a talented young cover man who just hit a rough patch. That want to sign him.

Teams that are well-acquainted with how good Butler can be, looking to add at least one starter at the position in free agency in 2018 and sitting on the second-most cap space in the NFL—over $90 million.

A trip across the AFC East to join the New York Jets would offer Butler more than just cash. That he will get no matter where he signs.

Playing in New York would also offer an opportunity for payback twice a year, a chance to prove the Patriots made a mistake in casting him aside.

Contract Terms: Four years, $53 million ($24 million guaranteed)