Ranking MLB's 25 Best Players Under 25 Entering the 2018 Season
The ranks of Major League Baseball's best players under the age of 25 have recently been dominated by the likes of Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Kris Bryant, Manny Machado and Mookie Betts.
Well, guess what: None of them is still under 25. It's time for a mostly new guard of elite young talent.
The goal here is to rank MLB's 25 best players under the age of 25 going into the 2018 season. The one difference—apart from the players, of course—from last year's rankings is the age cutoff. Last year it was players' seasonal ages (as of June 30). Now it's their Opening Day ages (as of March 29).
Otherwise, the same criteria apply:
- Must have MLB experience: If a player hasn't yet played in MLB, there are no grounds for arguing he's one of the best players in MLB. So, don't go looking for Shohei Ohtani's name in here.
- No prospects: This means all players who still have rookie eligibility, even if they've already logged time in the majors.
- Production matters: The more a player has produced in the majors, the better he's going to fare.
- But so does upside: Performances aren't static from year to year. Extra consideration will be given to players who figure to get better. Likewise, consideration will be taken away from players who figure to go backward.
Let's get started with some honorable mentions.
Honorable Mentions
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Position Players
- SS Dansby Swanson, Atlanta Braves
- SS Orlando Arcia, Milwaukee Brewers
- SS Jorge Polanco, Minnesota Twins
- 2B Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers
- RF Nomar Mazara, Texas Rangers
- CF Manuel Margot, San Diego Padres
- CF Albert Almora Jr., Chicago Cubs
Pitchers
- SP Luis Perdomo, San Diego Padres
- SP Eduardo Rodriguez, Boston Red Sox
- SP Jake Faria, Tampa Bay Rays
- SP Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies
- RHP Edwin Diaz, Seattle Mariners
- LHP Josh Hader, Milwaukee Brewers
25-21: Roberto Osuna-Matt Olson
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No. 25: Roberto Osuna, RP, Toronto Blue Jays
Opening Day age: 23
Roberto Osuna may be a lowly relief pitcher, but the tradeoff is that he's one of the very best there is. Since 2015, he ranks 12th among relievers in WAR at Baseball-Reference.com and fifth among them in WAR at FanGraphs.
Even in taking an apparent step back with a 3.38 ERA in 66 appearances last year, Osuna was actually better than ever. With total command of his mid-90s heat and sharp slider, he struck out 74 more batters (83) than he walked (9) and largely avoided hard contact.
No. 24: Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox
Opening Day age: 21
It would be disingenuous to discuss Rafael Devers' 2017 debut without mentioning his sloppy defense or the reality that he fit a month-long slump into just a 58-game sample.
He nonetheless put up an .819 OPS and hit 10 home runs in the regular season, plus a 1.338 OPS and two homers in the postseason. Doing the deed was a bat made for raking, even if pitches are coming in at high velocities (up to and including 103 mph). This will help him be a good player right away, and a star before too long.
No. 23: Yoan Moncada, 2B, Chicago White Sox
Opening Day age: 22
Yoan Moncada's potential is already the stuff of legend. He's a switch-hitter with tons of speed, good power and an eye for the strike zone. What more could you ask for?
The easy retort used to be, "How about results?" But Moncada began changing that narrative in the final two months of 2017. Even a boatload of strikeouts (31.4 K%) didn't stop him from putting up an .804 OPS and hitting seven homers in 42 games. Assuming he can build on that, he's set to be a flawed yet very exciting player in his first full major league season.
No. 22: Ozzie Albies, 2B, Atlanta Braves
Opening Day age: 21
Upon debuting in the majors in August 2017, Ozzie Albies immediately showed why he was so well regarded as a prospect. He played in 57 games and finished with a .286/.354/.456 slash line, six homers, eight stolen bases and 1.4 wins above replacement.
Obviously, a sample that small must be taken with a grain of salt. But since Albies is an excellent athlete (particularly with regard to his elite speed) who already has an advanced feel for hitting, he's worth taking seriously as a budding star despite his youth.
No. 21: Matt Olson, 1B, Oakland Athletics
Opening Day age: 24
Matt Olson didn't open many eyes in the 11 major league games he appeared in back in 2016. But in the 59 games he played in last year, he deserved all the attention he got plus plenty extra.
Despite the small sample, he managed to club 24 home runs and compile a 1.003 OPS. Per adjusted OPS+, he was about as dangerous a hitter as Giancarlo Stanton. That'll probably prove to be a one-time thing. But as a 6'5", 230-pound behemoth with a strong eye and a pull-power swing that's perfect for hard contact, he has what he needs to carry on as a fearsome slugger.
20-16: Paul DeJong-Lance McCullers
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No. 20: Paul DeJong, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
Opening Day age: 24
Had it not been for Cody Bellinger, Paul DeJong would have cake-walked his way to the 2017 National League Rookie of the Year award. All he did was play a solid shortstop while blasting 25 homers with an .857 OPS in 108 games.
This performance seemed to come out of nowhere, but it was actually a realization of potential that had always been there. DeJong has the ideal swing for power, in that it keeps the ball off the ground and makes liberal use of his pull side. Factor in his steady glove, and you get a capable two-way shortstop.
No. 19: German Marquez, SP, Colorado Rockies
Opening Day age: 23
German Marquez didn't have as good a 2017 season as teammate Kyle Freeland, who only made it as far as the honorable mentions of this list. But between the two, Marquez is the bigger threat to get better.
He was plenty good as is in 2017, finishing with a 4.39 ERA (which equates to an above average 114 ERA+) over 162 innings. The fact that he got away with throwing pitches in the strike zone more often than any other pitcher is a testament to his mid-90s fastball and sharp curveball. Hitters will be in for an even rougher time if Marquez decides to make it less easy for them.
No. 18: Ian Happ, CF, Chicago Cubs
Opening Day age: 23
The awkward part of Ian Happ's inclusion in this list has to do with his playing time outlook. It's hard to call him a regular when he's projected to split time at various positions in 2018.
All the same, he made it quite clear in 2017 that he's an up-and-coming star. Despite a swing-and-miss issue that produced an ugly 31.2 K%, his power and patience led the way to an .842 OPS and 24 homers in 115 games. He's also a good enough athlete to handle multiple positions, including center field.
No. 17: Luke Weaver, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
Opening Day age: 24
Although Luke Weaver didn't find much success in his first taste of the majors in 2016, he did demonstrate an ability to overwhelm major league hitters by striking out 45 of them in only 36.1 innings.
He kept right on doing that in 2017, whiffing 72 batters in 60.1 innings. Even better, he was able to avoid walks and home runs this time. It helped that he boosted his average fastball to 93.2 mph, but more so that he added a pretty good curveball to go with his excellent changeup. With his experience and these weapons at his disposal, he's ready for the next step in 2018.
No. 16: Lance McCullers, SP, Houston Astros
Opening Day age: 24
Lance McCullers' primary goal for 2018 should be staying healthy. His secondary goal should be harnessing control that, while mostly fine, tends to come and go.
However, this isn't a guy who's gotten to a 3.60 major league ERA by accident. He boasts an electric mid-90s fastball and the hardest curveball thrown by any starter, as well as a changeup that's more than just a show-me pitch. These things make both contact in general and hard contact tough to come by.
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15-11: Joey Gallo-Andrew Benintendi
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No. 15: Joey Gallo, 1B, Texas Rangers
Opening Day age: 24
Joey Gallo struck out in 50 percent of his major league plate appearances in 2015 and 2016. In 2017, he improved all the way to 36.8 percent...which was still second-highest in the league.
However, Gallo proved how little strikeouts can matter when you can take your walks (14.1 BB%) and hit absolute rockets when you do make contact. He finished with a well-above-average .869 OPS and 41 home runs, good for fourth in the league. He got the ball in the air better than everyone not named Matt Carpenter and, with the help of his gigantic 6'5", 235-pound frame, led all players with a 46.4 hard-hit rate. If that was his first act as a star slugger, his next ought to be something to see.
No. 14: Miguel Sano, 3B, Minnesota Twins
Opening Day age: 24
Between his tendency for injuries and his less-than-reliable defense at third base, Miguel Sano is a flawed player. If he ends up getting suspended for his alleged misdeeds off the field, that provides another reason for concern.
As a hitter, though, Sano is about as dangerous as they come. He's come to the plate 1,313 times as a major leaguer, producing an .844 OPS and hitting 71 homers. Part of his success is a sharp eye that's built a career 12.3 BB%. A bigger part is an almighty bat that's hit the ball at an average of 92.4 mph.
No. 13: Jose Berrios, SP, Minnesota Twins
Opening Day age: 23
The less said about Jose Berrios' first foray into major league action, the better. He's here much more so because of how he rebounded last year with a 3.89 ERA across 145.2 innings.
He got his control under, um, control and went right at hitters with his filthy stuff, most notably his extremely GIF-able curveball. He whiffed 8.6 batters per nine innings and held hitters to a lower exit velocity than all but 13 other starters. These abilities portend ace potential.
No. 12: Addison Russell, SS, Chicago Cubs
Opening Day age: 24
Addison Russell endured a lost year in 2017 that was marked by struggles on the field and distressing allegations off of it. So suffice it to say he'll have much to prove in 2018.
There's not much point in doubting his talent, though. He rode his slick glove and powerful bat to 7.6 WAR in his first two seasons. The former held true in 2017 with 15 defensive runs saved. The latter continued to produce hard contact. All he needs to do is find ways to be a more consistent hitter, and he'll be back on a path to superstardom.
No. 11: Andrew Benintendi, LF, Boston Red Sox
Opening Day age: 23
Andrew Benintendi went into 2017 as arguably MLB's No. 1 prospect and ended up being mostly just an OK regular. He hit a solid .271/.352/.424 and produced 2.6 WAR.
Buried within this just OK performance, however, are plenty of encouraging goodies. Benintendi showed power and speed with a 20/20 combo of homers and stolen bases. Also, an excellent eye (10.6 BB%) and a feel for contact (17.0 K%). Also-also, defense good enough for nine defensive runs saved. With talents like these, there's little standing between him and true stardom.
10. Matt Chapman, 3B, Oakland Athletics
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Opening Day Age: 24
Key MLB Statistics: 84 G, 326 PA, .234 AVG, .313 OBP, .472 SLUG, 14 HR
Total MLB WAR: 3.6
Although short on experience, Matt Chapman is already the holder of a prestigious title: American League's Best Third Baseman.
Both his 19 defensive runs saved and his 9.2 ultimate zone rating would have everyone believe it wasn't especially close last year. So would the eye test. His quick feet, smooth hands and rocket arm make for extremely highlight-friendly hot corner glovework. It's more than a tad reminiscent of the defense played in the National League by a former high school teammate named Nolan Arenado.
"I sat and watched him play," Chapman said of playing with Arenado at El Toro High School in Lake Forest, California, to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle in March 2017. "I learned as much as I could from him defensively."
Meanwhile, Chapman is not to be underestimated as an offensive player.
His 28.2 K% from 2017 doesn't lie about his swing-and-miss tendency. But he showed patience with a 9.8 BB% and generated power with a lofty swing that produced an ultra-low 33.5 ground-ball percentage. To boot, Statcast measured him as MLB's second-fastest third baseman.
With talents like these, Chapman will soon cement his place among the best at the position.
9. Aaron Nola, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
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Opening Day Age: 24
Key MLB Statistics: 60 GS, 356.2 IP, 9.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 3.94 ERA
Total MLB WAR: 6.3
It was somewhat on a wing and a prayer that Aaron Nola landed at No. 18 on last year's list. He was, after all, coming off a rough 2016 season that featured a 4.78 ERA in only 20 starts.
Lo and behold, the former No. 7 draft pick recovered with his best season yet in 2017. He was limited by injury to just 27 starts but still managed a 3.54 ERA in 168 innings.
The Philadelphia Phillies are justified in feeling miffed at Nola being left out of any conversation about baseball's best starters. He's always had good command of his pitches, and said pitches are no joke. He throws a four-seamer and a sinker in the low 90s with movement, as well as a filthy curveball and a changeup that's not so clean in its own right.
The total package permitted Nola to whiff 9.9 batters per nine innings last year. He also induced more soft contact (21.6 Soft%) than the average pitcher.
Perhaps the only thing standing between him and true acedom is the ol' times-through-the-order penalty, which hurt him with an .831 OPS his third time through last year. Luckily, fixing that looks like a simple matter of becoming less predictable with his pitch selection.
8. Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals
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Opening Day Age: 24
Key MLB Statistics: 198 G, 815 PA, .304 AVG, .348 OBP, .491 SLUG, 25 HR, 81 SB
Total MLB WAR: 6.4
After looking like a rising superstar in 2016, Trea Turner was unable to escape humility in 2017.
He was limited to just 98 games by injuries, the worst of which was a broken wrist that sidelined him for two months. His offense also suffered, as his OPS dropped all the way from .937 to .789.
On the bright side, Turner proved his elite speed was still in good shape by swiping 46 bases. Average that pace out over a full season, and it projects to 77 stolen bases. A big number, to be sure. And yet, not an unattainable goal for him going into 2018.
At the plate, Turner's red-hot finish upon returning from his wrist injury isn't the only positive takeaway from 2017. He got a lot better about not chasing pitches outside the strike zone. More of that will serve him well in the leadoff spot and can only help restore the power that went missing last year.
The one legitimate gripe about Turner's game has to do with his defense, which may never be better than average. But even if that's the case, an everyday shortstop with so much speed and a capable bat is nothing to laugh off.
7. Byron Buxton, CF, Minnesota Twins
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Opening Day Age: 24
Key MLB Statistics: 278 G, 980 PA, .237 AVG, .295 OBP, .406 SLUG, 28 HR, 41 SB
Total MLB WAR: 7.2
If nothing else, Byron Buxton can survive on his wheels and his glove.
He's the fastest man in baseball. Such a statement would have been fodder for a "Now, wait just a minute..." a few years ago, but not anymore. Nobody topped Buxton's average sprint of 30.2 feet per second in 2017.
That explains how he could go 29-for-30 in stealing bases, yet only partially explains how he won his first Gold Glove. Another factor was his sheer fearlessness (see: here and here) as a fly-ball catcher. These things combined to produce six more "outs above average" than any other outfielder in 2017.
Buxton's bat has notoriously been all over the place in his three years of major league exposure. But the former No. 2 pick seemed to figure things out after he adjusted his leg kick last summer. Over his final 62 games, he got his strikeout habit under control and slashed .314/.359/.553 with 12 home runs.
Until he can sustain that kind of offense, it's a stretch to call Buxton a finished product. And yet, it speaks volumes that even an unfinished version of him could produce more WAR than all but three center fielders.
6. Alex Bregman, 3B, Houston Astros
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Opening Day Age: 23
Key MLB Statistics: 204 G, 843 PA, .279 AVG, .342 OBP, .476 SLUG, 27 HR, 19 SB
Total MLB WAR: 5.8
Evidently, Alex Bregman loves a good challenge.
The Houston Astros put high expectations on him when they drafted him at No. 2 overall in 2015. He responded by hitting his way to the majors in 2016 and finishing with a solid .791 OPS and eight homers in 49 major league games. His upward trajectory continued in 2017, which culminated in an .827 OPS, 19 homers and 17 steals in the regular season, followed by a series of big hits in October.
As good as the numbers are, equally fascinating is how one can see Bregman getting better.
He's becoming more advanced as a hitter, notably getting pickier with his swings and better at making contact. Knowing that, he should improve on the already-good walk (8.8 BB%) and strikeout (15.5 K%) rates that he finished 2017 with. In the meantime, the quality of his contact is fine as is.
On the other side of the ball, there's an argument that the Astros should have Bregman at shortstop and Carlos Correa at third base. But Bregman's athleticism and knack for improvisation allow him to get by just fine at the hot corner.
Add it all up, and he's a good player who's trending toward greatness.
5. Cody Bellinger, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Opening Day Age: 22
Key MLB Statistics: 132 G, 548 PA, .267 AVG, .352 OBP, .581 SLUG, 39 HR, 10 SB
Total MLB WAR: 4.2 WAR
After he set the National League rookie home run record and unanimously won the NL Rookie of the Year in 2017, let it not be said that Cody Bellinger doesn't know how to make an entrance.
More to the point, it's hard to say he's headed for a reality check in 2018.
He retained enough patience in 2017 to work an 11.7 BB% and adjusted well enough throughout the year that he never did worse than an .835 OPS in any month. Even when pitchers started staying away from him, his response was to go with the flow and stop pulling so many batted balls.
Regardless of the direction, Bellinger was usually hitting the ball hard. He has an uppercut swing that's good for getting the ball in the air (35.3 GB%), as well as a knack for hitting it on the barrel. To wit, only five hitters did better than his 43.0 hard-hit percentage last year.
While Bellinger's bat will continue to be the main attraction going forward, it won't be the only one. He's remarkably fast by first baseman standards. And with smooth hands and actions at his disposal, it wouldn't be a shock if 2018 nets him the first of many Gold Gloves.
4. Luis Severino, SP, New York Yankees
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Opening Day Age: 24
Key MLB Statistics: 53 GS, 326.2 IP, 9.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 3.58 ERA
Total MLB WAR: 6.9
Going into 2017, it wasn't entirely clear what the New York Yankees had in Luis Severino. He threw really hard, but for what purpose?
Becoming an ace, apparently.
Severino made 31 starts last year, racking up 193.1 innings, a 2.98 ERA and 179 more strikeouts (230) than walks (51) along the way. He held opposing batters to a lower adjusted OPS+ than even Clayton Kershaw, which actually isn't too surprising in light of how he attacked them.
He threw pitches in the strike zone at a higher rate than any other American League starter. That's a clear case of a pitcher trusting his stuff. And, indeed, why the heck wouldn't Severino trust his stuff? His 97.6 mph fastball was the hardest of any starter. He complemented it with an electric slider and good changeup.
One looming question is whether Severino can maintain such a high-octane performance. To that end, it bodes well that he actually increased his velocity both within games and over time last year. Fatigue simply didn't get to him.
There is no better young starter in baseball today. With MLB suddenly short on talented starters, that's no small honor.
3. Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros
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Opening Day Age: 23
Key MLB Statistics: 361 G, 1,573 PA, .288 AVG, .366 OBP, .498 SLUG, 66 HR, 29 SB
Total MLB WAR: 16.3
Every year, Carlos Correa does something to live up to being the No. 1 pick in the 2012 draft.
In 2015, it was arriving in MLB and winning the American League Rookie of the Year. In 2016, it was having a 6.0-WAR season despite running into a few reality checks. And in 2017, it was having his best season yet.
Even though he was limited to 109 games by a thumb injury, Correa still raked with a .315/.391/.550 slash line and a career-high 24 homers. Reflected in that is how truly dangerous his bat is becoming.
He has a flat swing that produces a few too many ground balls, yet which allows him to be direct to the ball and keep his strikeouts down. Throw in a good eye that's produced BB% rates of at least 11 percent over the last two years. Then throw in a feel for the barrel that has his hard-hit and soft-hit percentages trending in opposite directions.
There are only two nits to pick. One is that Correa's 2-for-3 showing in stolen bases last year underscores the diminishing role of his legs. Another is that the defensive metrics mostly rate him as a below-average defender.
Nonetheless, there is no better offensive shortstop in baseball today.
2. Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Opening Day Age: 23
Key MLB Statistics: 329 G, 1,413 PA, .305 AVG, .374 OBP, .502 SLUG, 52 HR
Total MLB WAR: 13.5
By unanimously winning the NL Rookie of the Year and finishing third in the NL MVP voting in 2016, Corey Seager gave himself quite a hard act to follow in 2017.
No problem, as it turns out.
He only took a small step down on offense, going from an .877 OPS and 26 homers to an .854 OPS and 22 homers. Not to be overlooked is where he took a step forward, as he boosted his BB% from 7.9 to 10.9.
He didn't hit for as much power, but it wasn't for lack of trying. Not many hitters have as good a feel for hard contact as Seager does. That's seen in how his hard-hit rate went up last year, as well as in how there are only three active hitters with higher hard-hit rates since 2015: Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Sano and J.D. Martinez.
More surprising is how well Seager handles himself at shortstop despite being a 6'4", 220-pound slugger. His defensive metrics for the last two years are mostly excellent. That's reflective of how much he gets out of his instincts, footwork and strong arm.
And yet, there actually is a young shortstop who's better than Seager...
1. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians
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Opening Day Age: 24
Key MLB Statistics: 416 G, 1,845 PA, .293 AVG, .349 OBP, .474 SLUG, 60 HR, 46 SB
Total MLB WAR: 15.8
Francisco Lindor 1.0 was pretty good. As a sweet-swinging, fast-running, slick-fielding shortstop in 2015 and 2016, he accumulated more WAR (10.3) than anyone else at the position.
Last year brought Francisco Lindor 2.0, now with more power.
He hit 27 total homers in his first two seasons. He shot way past that by clubbing 33 home runs in 2017. Like seemingly every other hitter in Major League Baseball, he increased his launch angle and got more balls off the ground. Then it was just a simple matter of watching them carry over the fence.
The inherent danger in going for more power is accepting less consistency as a tradeoff. But Lindor didn't suffer from that as much as his .273 average and .337 on-base percentage would suggest. His walk (8.3 BB%) and strikeout (12.9 K%) remained perfectly static from the year before.
Lindor also maintained as one of the fastest shortstops in baseball. And while his defensive metrics took a tumble, they were still safely above average. He also continued to look (see: here, here and here) like an elite defender to the naked eye. Last year's defensive "slump" should prove to be a mere blip.
Thus, the list of gripes about Lindor will become completely blank.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball.
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