5 Win-Win Trade Ideas to Shift MLB's Balance of Power
Until the hot stove finally heats up, there's no time like the present to engage in everyone's favorite winter pastime: dreaming up baseball trades.
The goal here is to imagine five blockbusters. And not just any blockbusters. These have to make reasonable sense for both parties, and would also have to shift Major League Baseball's balance of power in some way.
This could mean turning a fringe wild-card contender into a definitive wild-card contender. It could also mean turning a definite wild-card contender into a division-title contender. Or a division-title contender into a definite World Series contender.
Let's dive right in.
Gerrit Cole to the Minnesota Twins
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As they look to build on a surprise postseason appearance in 2017, the Minnesota Twins would do well to catch up to other American League wild-card contenders by adding a solid starting pitcher.
For that, let's make something of a November report from Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press about the Twins having their eye on Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Gerrit Cole.
According to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, the Pirates have been asking for uber-prospect Gleyber Torres in talks with the New York Yankees. That's a tad unrealistic, however.
Sure, Cole is only 27 and under club control through 2019. But his ace status has come into question after following his excellent 2015 season (2.60 ERA in 208 innings) with a 4.12 ERA over 319 innings in 2016 and 2017.
Sonny Gray checked the same boxes when the Oakland Athletics traded him to the New York Yankees last July. The deal did net Oakland three prospects (SS Jorge Mateo, OF Dustin Fowler and RHP James Kaprielian) with top-100 pedigrees, but came with the catch that two (Fowler and Kaprielian) were seriously injured.
Thus, the Twins should be able to get Cole without surrendering either of their two wunderkind shortstops, Royce Lewis and Nick Gordon. Instead, left-hander Stephen Gonsalves and right-hander Fernando Romero would work. Both place in the back half of MLB.com's top 100 and are healthy and close to being MLB-ready.
Neither is on Torres' level, to be sure. But for the Pirates, this deal would restock a pitching depth chart that doesn't go as deep as it used to.
The Deal: RHP Gerrit Cole for LHP Stephen Gonsalves and RHP Fernando Romero
Chris Archer to the Texas Rangers
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The Texas Rangers have the unenviable task of catching up to the reigning champion Houston Astros in the AL West. What's more, they must also keep pace with the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners.
A top-of-the-rotation starter would help. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported that the Rangers like Detroit Tigers righty Michael Fulmer. But if they're willing to target him, they might be willing to turn to Chris Archer as a Plan B.
Since he's 24 and controlled through 2022, Fulmer is one of the most valuable trade chips in MLB. Archer is no slouch in his own right, but is 29 and controlled through 2021. Like Cole, he's also run suffered an ERA spike over the last two seasons. These factors make him slightly more attainable.
The Jose Quintana trade is relevant precedent here. For three-and-a-half seasons of his services, the Chicago White Sox landed a top-10 prospect (OF Eloy Jimenez) plus a top-100 pitcher (RHP Dylan Cease) and a couple throw-ins from the Chicago Cubs.
Alas, the Rangers don't have a prospect as good as Jimenez. But they do have Leody Taveras, a five-tool outfielder who checks in at No. 28 for MLB.com. He'd be a good centerpiece.
A solid secondary piece would be first baseman Ronald Guzman, a quality hitter with developing power. Another one would be left-hander Yohander Mendez, a high-floor type whose excellent changeup could appeal to a Rays organization that loves changeups.
The Deal: RHP Chris Archer for OF Leody Taveras, 1B Ronald Guzman and LHP Yohander Mendez
J.T. Realmuto to the Washington Nationals
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J.T. Realmuto is a 26-year-old catcher who's controlled through 2020 and, oh yeah, is quite good. He's hit .290 with an angelic .777 OPS over the last two seasons. He's also a well-rounded defender and a fast runner.
No team needs him as much as the Washington Nationals, who endured both poor offense (.632 OPS) and, according to Baseball Prospectus, poor framing from Matt Wieters in 2017. If they finally want to win a World Series, they must seek an upgrade.
According to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, the Nationals have interest in both Realmuto and outfielder Christian Yelich. Since a package deal would cost more than any team can reasonably afford, they should keep their focus on the guy they actually need.
Per another report from Frisaro, the Marlins will only move Realmuto for a "huge overpay." Vague, but it's safe to assume they won't budge unless they're offered multiple top prospects.
The Nationals happen to have a couple they can spare.
One is outfielder Juan Soto. Although he's looking up at Victor Robles on Washington's organizational depth chart, he's a natural-born hitter who checks in at No. 37 for MLB.com. Another is No. 99 prospect Carter Kieboom, who's blocked by Trea Turner at shortstop. His bat is legit enough to downplay his defensive question marks.
There could be throw-ins as well. A package based on those two, however, should please everyone.
The Deal: C J.T. Realmuto for OF Juan Soto and SS Carter Kieboom
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Christian Yelich to the Arizona Diamondbacks
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Christian Yelich has tallied 17.7 wins above replacement in five seasons while picking up a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger. He's also 26 years old and signed to a club-friendly contract that runs as far as 2022.
Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, one rival executive believes the Miami Marlins would be justified in asking for three or four "genuine assets" for Yelich. Among those who should be willing to meet that price are the Arizona Diamondbacks.
They won 93 games last year but have a hole in their outfield where J.D. Martinez once stood. Yelich couldn't replace his power, yet he could be an upgrade all the same due to his all-around skill set. That would help the Diamondbacks stay within striking distance of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West.
As far as "genuine assets" go, the D-Backs would have to start with first baseman Pavin Smith, whom they just took at No. 7 in the 2017 draft. With Realmuto possibly on his way out, another 2017 draftee who would appeal to the Marlins is Daulton Varsho, a catcher who can hit and run.
From there, Arizona could add on with right-hander Jon Duplantier, who opened eyes with a dominant 2017 (1.39 ERA in 136.0 IP). After him could come lefty Anthony Banda, whom the Marlins could plug right into their major league rotation.
This is a lot to give up, to be sure. But after looking like a lost cause as recently as 2016, the D-Backs are now too good not to press forward.
The Deal: OF Christian Yelich for 1B Pavin Smith, C Daulton Varsho, RHP Jon Duplantier and LHP Anthony Banda
Manny Machado to the St. Louis Cardinals
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The Manny Machado sweepstakes has quieted down in recent weeks. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, this is ostensibly because the Baltimore Orioles have deemed offers for the three-time All-Star to be unsatisfactory.
If there's a team that can change that, it's the St. Louis Cardinals.
Even after trading for Marcell Ozuna, the Cardinals have continued to be linked to star sluggers. Clearly, they understand that they're not quite on the Chicago Cubs' level in the NL Central.
If the Cardinals could have it their way, Nightengale reports they would have Toronto Blue Jays MVP Josh Donaldson over Machado. However, there's been little indication that the Blue Jays are willing to move Donaldson.
Were the Cardinals to turn their attention to Machado, they could easily appease Baltimore's reported asking price (per Rosenthal) of "two young, controllable starting pitchers." Luke Weaver, a former top prospect who found success in the majors in 2017, could be one of the two. Jack Flaherty, a fellow MLB-ready starter who ranks at No. 48 for MLB.com, could be the second.
The Orioles might prefer Alex Reyes, who's still an elite pitching prospect even after having Tommy John surgery. But since Machado only has one year left until free agency, here's thinking they could come around to the idea of getting two good young pitchers instead of one great one.
The Deal: 3B Manny Machado for RHP Luke Weaver and RHP Jack Flaherty
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
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