MLB Rumors: BS Meter on Giancarlo Stanton, Shohei Ohtani, Other Hot-Stove Buzz
With Thanksgiving behind us and the MLB winter meetings set to kick off Dec. 10, the offseason hot stove is stuck somewhere between tepid and ice cold.
To put it another way: Since Justin Upton signed a five-year, $106 million extension with the Los Angeles Angels on Nov. 2, the biggest transactions have been the Oakland A's trading Ryon Healy to the Seattle Mariners and the Texas Rangers signing Doug Fister, per Evan Drelich of NBC Sports Boston.
So...yeah.
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Eventually, of course, the top free agents will come off the board and we'll learn the fate of the winter's major trade targets.
In the meantime, let's mine the rumor mill for some choice nuggets and put them through B/R's one-to-five B.S. meter, with one being a near-lock and five being utter B.S.
We'll begin with rumblings concerning the biggest fish (pun intended) on the trading block.
A Shot of Giancarlo Stanton With a Dee Gordon Chaser by the Bay?
The Rumor: The San Francisco Giants might acquire Giancarlo Stanton and Dee Gordon from the Miami Marlins.
The Source: It's widely known the Giants are pursuing Stanton and are the "favorites" to land the Marlins masher, per MLB.com's Mark Feinsand. According to Craig Misch of Sirius XM, the Giants and Marlins have exchanged names in their negotiations.
As for San Francisco's package, Misch names two prospects, pitcher Tyler Beede and power-hitting outfielder/first baseman Chris Shaw, as well as MLB second baseman Joe Panik. On the Miami side, he mentions second baseman Dee Gordon along with Stanton.
Analysis: On the surface, this makes sense. The Marlins' new ownership group, led by Derek Jeter, is looking to shed salary. Getting rid of the more than $280 million (barring a post-2020 opt-out) remaining on Stanton's contract fits the bill as does offloading the minimum $37.9 million owed to Gordon through 2020.
Beede and Shaw are the No. 2 and No. 3 prospects in the Giants' system, per MLB.com, while Panik is a 2015 All-Star and 2016 Gold Glove winner entering his first year of arbitration eligibility.
It's possible the Marlins could extract a richer haul from another suitor, but that's a decent return, considering the Giants are willing to take on "a lot" of Stanton's contract, per Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
That brings us to Gordon. The 29-year-old speedster hit .308 and stole 60 bases in 2017 and would plug the hole left by Panik's departure.
Couple his salary with Stanton's, however, and Giants would vault over the luxury tax threshold, as McCovey Chronicles' Grant Brisbee noted. And that's before they fill other holes in the bullpen and at third base.
Despite his payroll-crippling salary, Stanton makes a lot of sense for a San Francisco squad that lost 98 games and finished dead last in home runs and OPS, yet has indicated a rebuild isn't in the offing.
Adding Gordon's dollars (not to mention his PED baggage) tips the scales toward implausible.
B.S. Meter: Three
Shohei Ohtani Getting Fitted for Pinstripes?
The Rumor: The New York Yankees are the front-runners to land Japanese star Shohei Ohtani.
The Source: George A. King III of the New York Post summed up the speculative consensus when he noted "the Yankees are the favorite" to sign the soon-to-be-posted two-way stud.
Analysis: Ohtani's agent, Nez Balelo, asked for a litany of written explanations from all clubs interested in his 23-year-old client's services, as first reported by the Associated Press (h/t the Boston Herald).
Per the report:
"Balelo's memo asks for a team to evaluate Ohtani's talent as a pitcher and as a hitter; to explain its player development, medical training and player performance philosophies and facilities; to describe its minor league and spring training facilities; to detail resources for Ohtani's cultural assimilation into the team's city; to demonstrate a vision for how Ohtani could integrate into the team's organization; and to tell Ohtani why the team is a desirable place to play."
Notably, the memo asked teams not to discuss money. Ohtani can sign only for the league minimum, plus a $20 million posting fee, since he's entering MLB prior to his 25th birthday.
The Yanks aren't the only club that ticks off the non-monetary boxes on Ohtani's checklist.
The Los Angeles Dodgers can make a compelling case as another big-market team with a high profile and a talented roster. The Seattle Mariners have a track record with Japanese players and are planning to make a hard push, according to general manager Jerry Dipoto.
"We're not going to leave a stone unturned in the efforts to do it again if the opportunity arises," Dipoto said on a podcast with Seattle broadcaster Aaron Goldsmith, per Greg Johns of MLB.com. "We'll be responsible in how we do it, but we understand this is a one-time buying opportunity and you have to be prepared."
That said, the Yankees are the best fit. No franchise boasts a richer history. Heck, Ohtani has been called the Japanese Babe Ruth, as Bleacher Report's Scott Miller outlined in March.
Ohtani isn't coming to the states for dollars. He's coming for eyeballs and a chance to win. The burgeoning Big Apple Yankees—who got within a win of the World Series in 2017—offer both.
The Mariners are an interesting dark horse but bet on Ohtani landing in the Bronx.
B.S. Meter: One
Yu Darvish to the Twinkies?
The Rumor: The Minnesota Twins are serious players for free-agent ace Yu Darvish.
The Source: There are an array of second- and third-tier arms on the market, but Minnesota could aim high and go after Darvish, who figures to command a nine-figure deal.
That's according to general manager Thad Levine, who called Darvish "a priority for us," per Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio.
Analysis: The Twins were one of the coolest surprises of 2017 as they rebounded from a 103-loss campaign to claim the American League's second wild card.
Now, they're hoping to build on that success and shore up their most glaring weakness—the starting rotation.
The Twins have $70.4 million committed for next season, per Spotrac, plus another $15.8 million in projected arbitration salaries, per MLB Trade Rumors. They spent $135.7 million in 2017, which means they've got dough to allocate.
Still, it would take a huge chunk of their available resources to ink Darvish. That leaves precious little for the Twins to plug other holes, including in the bullpen.
Minnesota could surprise, but Darvish or any other top-shelf free agent coming to Target Field feels far-fetched.
B.S. Meter: Four
Pads in on Eric Hosmer?
The Rumor: The San Diego Padres could make a play for free-agent first baseman Eric Hosmer.
The Source: Both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune have noted the Friars' possible interest in Hosmer.
Analysis: The Padres are squarely in the midst of a rebuild and more than a season away from contention.
That said, Hosmer is 28 years old and could have several productive years ahead of him after posting career highs in batting average (.318), hits (192) and OPS (.882) in 2017 with the Kansas City Royals.
Hosmer is represented by superagent Scott Boras and is likely to command a $100 million-plus pact. That's a lot of coin for a club whose contention window has yet to crack open.
The lefty-swinger has a reputation as a clubhouse leader and won a title with K.C. in 2015. He may prefer to go to a winner, but the young Padres could be a sneaky-decent fit.
Assuming the Boston Red Sox or another deep-pocketed contender doesn't overpay for Hosmer, this isn't as implausible as it sounds.
B.S. Meter: Two
All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted.
