New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The New England Patriots ride an 11-game road winning streak into Denver this week, and that includes a 9-2 run against the spread. And the Patriots just beat the Broncos at Mile High last December. Can they do it again Sunday night?

NFL point spread: The Patriots opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 46.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 24.7-20.8 Patriots (NFL picks on every game).

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Why the Patriots can cover the spread

Since taking that loss to Carolina back in October, New England is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, including its 21-13 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers two weeks ago. The Patriots, the clear favorites on the AFC championship odds, then enjoyed last week off.

New England, as a seven-point favorite, spotted Los Angeles an early touchdown, then scored the next 18 points of the game. Near the end, much to the delight of their financial backers, the Patriots kicked a short field goal to push their lead to eight, then intercepted Phillip Rivers on the final play of the game.

On the day, New England outgained the Chargers 414-349, and 87 of Los Angeles' yards came on one play. The Patriots also dominated time of possession by a 37-23 margin.

At 6-2 New England trails top-seeded Pittsburgh by a tiebreaker in the battle for the best record in the AFC.

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

The Broncos started well enough this season, winning three of their first four games, but they're now trying to halt a four-game losing streak following their 51-23 loss at Philadelphia two weeks ago. Denver then also had last week off.

The Broncos took an early 3-0 on the best team in the NFL at the moment but gave up the next 17 points and let things snowball from there.

The best thing to do with a performance like that is to forget and move on.

Earlier this season, the Broncos ran for 140 yards in a victory over the Chargers, 178 in a win over Dallas and 143 in a win over Oakland. Even with the poor play at quarterback, it seems obvious what this Denver offense needs to do, and it should get its chance going against New England's 25th-ranked run defense.

Smart pick

These teams are headed in different directions at the moment. However, if Denver is going to get up for any game this season, this would be the one to do it. If the Broncos can run the ball, get just some decent play at quarterback and play four quarters of spirited defense, it should keep this one close.

NFL betting trends

The Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games on the road against the Broncos.

The Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games in November.

The total has gone under in nine of the Broncos' last 12 games after a loss.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.