Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Green Bay Packers (4-1) will go for their fourth straight victory and try to increase their lead in the NFC North when they visit the Minnesota Vikings (3-2) on Sunday as small road favorites at the sportsbooks. The Packers will be away from home for the second consecutive week after beating the Dallas Cowboys 35-31 last time out.

NFL point spread: The Packers opened as four-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 25.2-18.5 Vikings (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Green Bay is 11-3-1 straight up in the past 15 meetings with Minnesota. The Packers have also won seven of their last eight on the road against divisional opponents.

Despite suffering through a lot of early-season injuries, they still have the most talented quarterback in the league who can hurt opponents with his legs as well as his arm in Aaron Rodgers. Last week at Dallas, Rodgers threw for 221 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions.

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

As good as Green Bay is offensively, Minnesota is the superior defensive team and can put enough pressure on Rodgers to make him look mortal. The Vikings are coming off a 20-17 road win over the Chicago Bears on Monday night, so they will be playing on short rest.

However, the good news is that backup quarterback Case Keenum performed well in relief of starter Sam Bradford, who returned a bit too early from a knee injury. Keenum will likely get the call again here if Bradford can't go.

Smart pick

Minnesota may not be able to keep up on the scoreboard if this game turns into a shootout, so the team's goal will be to make this more of a low-scoring affair instead.

Regardless of who is under center for the Vikings, they will look to run the ball more against the Packers with Jerick McKinnon and Latavius Murray. McKinnon was particularly effective versus the Bears with 95 yards on 16 carries and scored a key touchdown on a 58-yard tote.

Green Bay is still too one-dimensional on offense, and Minnesota will force at least one turnover from Rodgers to help the home underdog win and pay out at online betting sites.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in four of the Packers' last five games against the Vikings.

The Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games at home against teams with winning records.

The total has gone over in 11 of the Packers' last 12 games.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.