Stay Away! 1 Free Agent Every MLB Team Should Avoid This Offseason
It's fun speculating where MLB free agents might land given the latest rumblings on the rumor mill and cursory areas of need on each team's roster.
It's a bit trickier trying to cross players off a team's wish list, but we've taken a crack at naming one free agent each club should avoid this offseason.
The idea was to pick a player who hypothetically fills a need and looks like a fit on the surface but doesn't look like an ideal target upon closer examination.
That was determined based on a combination of advanced metrics, previous performance, franchise outlook and other factors.
AL East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles: SP Jason Vargas
A brutal 5.70 starters' ERA and the impending departures of Chris Tillman, Jeremy Hellickson, Ubaldo Jimenez and potentially Wade Miley—he has a $12 million team option—make starting pitching an obvious question for the Orioles.
Veteran Jason Vargas is not the answer.
The 34-year-old has a 42.5 percent fly-ball rate for his career—10th among active starters with at least 500 innings pitched—and his 1.35 home runs per nine innings this season was seventh-highest in the AL.
That wouldn't play well in homer-friendly Camden Yards.
Boston Red Sox: RF J.D. Martinez
According to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, the Red Sox "would appear to be" in the hunt for free-agent slugger J.D. Martinez.
It makes sense the team would be looking to add some pop after taking a major step backward in the power department, but doing so by spending $100 million-plus on a designated hitter is not the answer.
And that's what Martinez would be in Boston.
With Andrew Benintendi (9 DRS), Jackie Bradley Jr. (9 DRS) and Mookie Betts (31 DRS) making up perhaps the best defensive outfield in baseball, Martinez would be relegated to one-way status.
Spending on a power-hitting first baseman like Eric Hosmer or Carlos Santana makes more sense.
New York Yankees: 1B Eric Hosmer
Greg Bird still deserves a shot at proving he can be the first baseman of the future for the Yankees, and a strong postseason has strengthened his case.
However, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports wrote that "the Yankees are said to love (Eric) Hosmer, who brings the kind of clutch and leadership they seek" after speculating of a possible bidding war with the rival Red Sox.
As the Yankees continue to keep one eye on the vaunted 2018/19 free-agent class, spending north of $100 million on Hosmer now might not be in the team's best interest.
Besides, starting pitching should be priority No. 1 this winter.
Tampa Bay Rays: RP Steve Cishek
Steve Cishek posted a 1.09 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 26 appearances after being traded from the Mariners to the Rays in exchange for Erasmo Ramirez.
With 121 career saves and a thin free-agent crop of proven closers behind Wade Davis, there's a good chance someone will be willing to give him multiple years and late-inning money this winter.
The Rays don't need to be that team.
They already have a standout closer in Alex Colome and they've made a living on building a bullpen from scrap-heap signings and waiver claims. No reason to deviate from that approach.
Toronto Blue Jays: RF Jay Bruce
The Blue Jays have shown interest in Jay Bruce in the past and he was almost traded to Toronto during the 2016 offseason before that deal fell apart.
Right fielder Jose Bautista will not have his $17 million mutual option exercised and a left-field platoon led by Steve Pearce and Ezequiel Carrera produced a 95 OPS+, so there's room to improve the corner outfield production.
However, Bruce remains a fairly one-dimensional player, and the team would be better served targeting someone like Jarrod Dyson at a lower cost while also giving a long look to in-house players like Anthony Alford and Teoscar Hernandez.
AL Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox: C Miguel Montero
Omar Narvaez hit .277 with a .373 on-base percentage over 295 plate appearances while posting a 1.2 WAR as the primary catcher for the White Sox this season.
However, he was one of the league's worst pitch-framers and threw out just 24 percent (16 of 68) of base stealers, so don't be surprised if the White Sox look for an experienced backstop to anchor what will be a young staff.
Chris Iannetta, Alex Avila and Nick Hundley are among the options the team could pursue. One veteran they should steer clear of is Miguel Montero.
The two-time All-Star became a distraction in the Cubs clubhouse when he passed the buck on his inability to control the running game (5-of-63 caught stealing), eventually leading to his release. That's not the guy you want molding a young staff.
Cleveland Indians: 1B Carlos Santana
Carlos Santana will be one of the more interesting free agents this winter.
With terrific on-base skills, 30-homer power and a strong track record of good health—he's averaged 153 games over the past seven seasons—he's a strong candidate for a four- or perhaps even five-year deal with an annual value well north of the $12 million he made this season.
Despite their recent success, the Indians are still not a free-spending team.
It won't be easy to let Santana walk given what he's meant to the team's success, but with Bryan Shaw headed for free agency this offseason and both Andrew Miller and Cody Allen due to leave the following winter, putting that money toward the bullpen makes more sense.
Detroit Tigers: RP Fernando Rodney
Death, taxes and someone giving Fernando Rodney an opportunity to close games.
With a rebuild now in full swing, the Tigers will be looking for bargains on this year's free-agent market, and that includes addressing the need for an experienced closer.
Steve Cishek, Brandon Kintzler, Matt Belisle, Juan Nicasio and Sergio Romo might all be willing to settle for a one-year deal if it means a chance to close. That's a long enough list of options that a reunion with Rodney should be nowhere near Plan A.
The 40-year-old saved 39 games this season, but he also blew six saves and posted a 4.23 ERA. He simply doesn't have the same upside as a sign-and-flip closer and that's what the Tigers should be seeking.
Kansas City Royals: CF Lorenzo Cain
If the Royals are going to make a run at re-signing one of their free agents, it shouldn't be Lorenzo Cain.
With a rebuild in the works, the 31-year-old Cain does not have age on his side relative to fellow free agents Eric Hosmer (27) and Mike Moustakas (29).
His skill set won't age as well, either.
As a player who relies heavily on his speed and defense as the driving forces behind his value, the cliff will be a steep one once he reaches it.
For a contender who views Cain as the potential missing piece, it's worth handing out a four-year deal and hoping he helps win a title on the front end. For the Royals, that type of contract just doesn't make sense.
Minnesota Twins: RP Wade Davis
The Twins should count their lucky stars they were able to reach the postseason with the unconventional veteran duo of Brandon Kintzler (28/32 SV, 5.4 K/9) and Matt Belisle (9/14 SV, 91.0 mph fastball) closing out games.
With Kintzler traded to the Nationals and Belisle on a one-year deal, addressing the ninth-inning role will be a top priority this winter.
However, shelling out a megadeal to land Wade Davis doesn't make sense for a team that's still building for the future. Arriving as a contender sooner than expected shouldn't change the team's big-picture plans.
Targeting a lower-cost veteran on a shorter deal and hoping hard-throwing prospects John Curtiss and J.T. Chargois can eventually emerge as the leaders of the bullpen is a better approach.
AL West
3 of 6
Houston Astros: RP Tony Watson
Signing Tony Watson should be Plan C for the Astros this offseason in their search for a quality left-handed reliever.
- Plan A: Trade for Zach Britton
- Plan B: Sign Jake McGee
With no other pressing needs to address and given the team's standing as a legitimate title contender in both the short and long term, there's no reason they should have to settle for their third choice.
Watson pitched well after joining the Dodgers at the trade deadline, but he still finished 2017 with a 4.45 FIP and a career-high 9.7 hits allowed per nine innings. He's a good pitcher, but he's not the same dominant force he was a few years ago.
Los Angeles Angels: 3B Eduardo Nunez
Eduardo Nunez is the kind of player who fits on all 30 teams thanks to his defensive versatility and a solid mix of batting average, speed and gap power offensively.
He's the wrong player for the Angels to target in their search for a third baseman, though.
Even if Justin Upton forgoes his opt-out clause and sticks around, this is still an Angels team that finished 24th in the majors with 186 home runs and 11th in the AL at 4.4 runs per game.
They should be looking for more of a middle-of-the-order presence at the hot corner, and both Mike Moustakas and Todd Frazier fit the bill among this year's free-agent crop.
Oakland Athletics: 1B Yonder Alonso
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports wrote in July that the Athletics had "expressed interest" in an extension with Yonder Alonso, shortly before he was traded to the Seattle Mariners.
That may lead to some speculation of a possible reunion this offseason, but the A's would be wise to steer clear.
The 30-year-old posted an .866 OPS with 28 home runs in a breakout season offensively, but a quick look at his first- and second-half splits raise more than a few eyebrows.
- First half: .934 OPS, 114 OPS+, 20 HR
- Second half: .774 OPS, 81 OPS+, 8 HR
Give Matt Olson the starting first base job, keep your options open in the outfield and let someone else pay for Alonso's career year.
Seattle Mariners: SP Jaime Garcia
It's no secret the Mariners will be looking for starting pitching help after they used a whopping 17 different starters during an injury-plagued season.
James Paxton, Felix Hernandez and Mike Leake are locked into three spots on the staff, and the front office will likely value durability in whoever it chooses to target in free agency.
While Jaime Garcia has topped 150 innings each of the past two seasons, he doesn't exactly have a sterling track record when it comes to avoiding the disabled list.
The 31-year-old is capable of producing at a middle-of-the-rotation level, but the M's are better suited going after someone with less medical baggage.
Texas Rangers: SP Andrew Cashner
If you're someone who still only looks at surface-level numbers, Andrew Cashner had a great season.
The 31-year-old won 11 games and finished ninth in the AL with a 3.40 ERA while playing his home games in hitter-friendly Arlington.
However, a look below the surface reveals some troubling peripherals.
His 4.61 FIP is a good indication that negative regression is coming, and among 58 qualified starters, he ranked near the bottom in strikeout rate (4.5 K/9, 57th), xFIP (5.30, 57th) and swinging strike rate (6.1%, 58th).
The Rangers need pitching help, but they should let someone else pay for that unsustainable ERA.
NL East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves: 3B Todd Frazier
The Braves ranked 29th in the majors this season with a .655 OPS from the third base position.
With Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson entrenched around the rest of the infield, pursuing a veteran third baseman like Todd Frazier might seem like an obvious move.
Austin Riley is the future at the hot corner, though.
Riley, 20, posted a .786 OPS with 20 home runs and 74 RBI between High-A and Double-A and he has legitimate star potential. He could be ready by 2019.
Frazier would be a nice stopgap on a one-year deal, but he'll likely receive multiyear offers, and there's no reason to block Riley when they could just roll with Johan Camargo and Rio Ruiz for another year.
Miami Marlins: SP Jeremy Hellickson
The Marlins could blow things up this offseason if the new ownership group decides to go that route.
If not, shoring up a starting rotation that ranked 26th in the majors with a 5.12 ERA will be paramount if they hope to make a run at contention.
This team needs an ace, though.
Signing someone like Jeremy Hellickson—whom the Marlins nearly acquired at the 2016 deadline—would bring veteran stability, but he's not the missing piece.
He's a complementary arm and a No. 3/4 starter on a contender, and that's who can justify giving him the three- or four-year deal he's likely to receive—not the Marlins.
New York Mets: RP Joaquin Benoit
The bullpen will be "an area of focus" for the Mets this offseason as they look to add at least one veteran arm to the mix, according to Marc Carig of Newsday.
With 16 seasons and 764 career appearances—fifth among active players—Benoit brings plenty of experience to the table.
However, the 40-year-old may be nearing the end of the line.
His 4.65 ERA this season represented his highest single-season mark since 2008 and he fell off badly down the stretch with a 6.23 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over his final 17 appearances.
Philadelphia Phillies: SP Yu Darvish
The Phillies are several years into the rebuilding process, and Aaron Nola looks like the only safe bet to be a long-term piece of the rotation.
With plenty of payroll room, this could be the offseason where they look to make a splashy signing.
Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish are the marquee names on this year's starting pitching market, but they have different levels of wear on the tires at this point in their respective careers.
- Arrieta: 1,669.0 professional innings
- Darvish: 2,127.2 professional innings
Considering the Phillies likely won't be ready to contend for at least a few more seasons, signing Darvish would be a major risk since his drop-off could come sooner than other pitchers his age.
Washington Nationals: RP Matt Albers
For a good portion of the season, Matt Albers was the only reliable arm in the Nationals bullpen.
The 34-year-old struggled to a 6.31 ERA over 58 appearances with the White Sox in 2016 and wound up settling for a minor league deal last offseason that was worth $1.15 million at the MLB level.
However, an uptick in fastball velocity (92.5 to 94.0 mph) helped him rally to a 1.62 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 9.3 K/9 with 14 holds in 63 appearances, and he's set himself up for a nice payday as a result.
With Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle now in the fold, the Nationals can let someone else pay to see if he can avoid regressing toward his 3.40 FIP next year.
NL Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: SP Jake Arrieta
Jake Arrieta is a safe bet to get at least five years and $100 million this offseason and that's probably the floor for his contract negotiations.
The Cubs' young, controllable core puts them in an enviable position, but those guys won't be making the league minimum for much longer.
Kris Bryant, Kyle Hendricks and Addison Russell will all be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, and Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber and Carl Edwards Jr. are up the following offseason.
With those rapidly escalating salaries, potentially two rotation spots to fill and a decision to make on closer Wade Davis, another megadeal for a rotation that already features $155 million man Jon Lester just doesn't make financial sense.
Cincinnati Reds: SS Alcides Escobar
There's still a chance Zack Cozart will return to the Reds next season, whether he accepts a qualifying offer or agrees to terms on a multiyear deal.
If he winds up going elsewhere, Alcides Escobar represents the best of the rest on the free-agent market and that's not saying much.
Over the past three seasons, his 68 OPS+ is tied for 229th out of 232 players who have made at least 1,000 plate appearances. His defensive game has also moved in the wrong direction as he has a combined minus-12 DRS over that same span.
The rebuilding Reds would be better off giving Jose Peraza everyday playing time at shortstop until Nick Senzel arrives, then perhaps sliding Eugenio Suarez from third base to shortstop.
Milwaukee Brewers: SP Alex Cobb
Alex Cobb is an intriguing second-tier option on this year's starting pitching market and he could wind up getting something similar to the five-year, $80 million deal that Mike Leake signed with the Cardinals a few years ago.
The 30-year-old was 12-10 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 179.1 innings in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.
The Brewers still have work to do sorting out their own internal rotation options and an injury concern of their own to deal with, as Jimmy Nelson is expected to miss a large portion of the 2018 season following shoulder surgery.
Rolling the dice on a risk/reward signing like Cobb makes more sense for a big-market team that can take the financial hit if things go south. The last thing the Brewers want is another Matt Garza.
Pittsburgh Pirates: SP Tyson Ross
Pitching coach Ray Searage has worked his magic on a number of reclamation projects over the past few seasons and there are plenty of pitchers who fit the bill this offseason.
One whom the front office can probably steer clear of is Tyson Ross.
In his return from thoracic outlet surgery, Ross was simply never able to regain his pre-injury form, posting a 7.71 ERA with more walks (37) than strikeouts (36) over 49 innings.
His fastball velocity was down from 93.9 mph when he was healthy in 2015 to 92.0 mph, and opposing hitters saw their ISO spike from .065 to .113 against his once lethal slider.
St. Louis Cardinals: SP Lance Lynn
Just like the rival Cubs would be best suited letting Jake Arrieta walk, the same can be said about Lance Lynn with the Cardinals.
The 30-year-old returned strong from Tommy John surgery, going 11-8 with a 3.43 ERA (seventh in NL) and 1.23 WHIP in 186.1 innings.
However, as the third-best starting pitcher on the market, it's not out of the question to think he could get something close to the five-year, $90 million deal that Jeff Samardzija signed with the San Francisco Giants in December 2015.
The Cardinals can go forward with some combination of Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha, Adam Wainwright, Luke Weaver, Jack Flaherty and eventually Alex Reyes in the rotation.
NL West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks: RP Addison Reed
The Diamondbacks will be searching for an upgrade to free agent Fernando Rodney in the closer's role, and Addison Reed is not the answer.
The 28-year-old has had a terrific career, aside from his previous stint in the desert.
- Arizona: 100 G, 4.23 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, 100.0 IP
- Other: 310 G, 3.17 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 7.8 H/9, 302.2 IP
Arizona is not always the best environment for pitchers who rely heavily on breaking stuff, and Reed throws his slider 33.1 percent of the time.
He's a great pitcher and the D-backs have a clear need in the late innings, but it's just not the right fit.
Colorado Rockies: RP Tyler Clippard
With Greg Holland, Jake McGee and Pat Neshek all set to depart in free agency, the Rockies have some work to do rebuilding a bullpen that was perhaps the biggest reason for their impressive turnaround.
Tyler Clippard is one pitcher they should avoid in that process.
The two-time All-Star had a 50.6 percent fly-ball rate this season, the seventh-highest mark among pitchers with at least 60 innings of work.
Keeping the ball on the ground is still the easiest way to succeed at Coors Field.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 2B Brandon Phillips
If Chase Utley rides off into the sunset this offseason, the Dodgers might feel compelled to sign Brandon Phillips to fill a similar role.
Logan Forsythe hit just .224 with a .678 OPS in his first season with the team after being acquired to be the everyday second baseman, and Chris Taylor eventually settled in as the starting center fielder after seeing some early time at the keystone.
That said, a healthy Adrian Gonzalez could leave Cody Bellinger, Alex Verdugo, Joc Pederson and Yasiel Puig battling for playing time in the outfield, which might mean Taylor moves back to second base.
There's also the question of how accommodating Phillips would be to being a part-time player, even if he did initially agree to the idea.
San Diego Padres: SS Zack Cozart
It won't be hard for the Padres to upgrade at shortstop after the position produced a .218 average and .626 OPS—both worst in the majors.
However, this team is still at least a few years from contending, so there's no reason to spend big and part with the draft pick compensation that it will likely require to sign Zack Cozart.
By the time the team is ready to contend again, they could have a superstar in the making manning the shortstop position in Fernando Tatis Jr.
In the short term, playing Yangervis Solarte there to open up third base for Cory Spangenberg or Christian Villanueva also looks like an option.
San Francisco Giants: 3B Mike Moustakas
The Diamondbacks lost 93 games in 2016 and then turned around and won 93. Who's to say this year's 98-loss Giants team can't do the same?
I'll say it.
Whether the front office wants to admit it, it's time for a rebuild in San Francisco, and throwing a few high-priced free agents on top of the current core is not going to be enough to quickly right the ship. All that's going to do is set them back even further.
One rival insider predicted to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports that the Giants "will be all over" Mike Moustakas as they look to upgrade at third base.
That's exactly the kind of high-priced band-aid they need to avoid.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Brooks Baseball, unless otherwise noted.
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