Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistSeptember 26, 2017

Green Bay Packers' Aaron Rodgers tries to get away from Cincinnati Bengals' Jordan Willis during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 24, 2017, in Green Bay, Wis. (AP Photo/Mike Roemer)
Mike Roemer/Associated Press

The Green Bay Packers once trailed the all-time series with the Chicago Bears 80-57. But the Pack have won 36 of the last 49 meetings, including six of the last seven, to knot this rivalry at 93-93. Green Bay will try to take the lead when the teams meet on Thursday night at Lambeau Field.

NFL point spread: The Packers opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 45.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 26.1-14.6 Packers (NFL picks on every game).

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

      

Why the Bears can cover the spread

The Bears are 1-2 SU but 2-1 ATS this season, following their 23-17 overtime upset of Pittsburgh last Sunday. Chicago, as a seven-point home dog, led 7-0 early and 17-7 in the second half, allowed Pittsburgh to force OT, but then won it by driving the opening possession of the extra period 74 yards. The last 19 yards were from running back Jordan Howard around the corner into the end zone for the game-winning score.

On the day, Chicago outrushed the Steelers 220-70 and won time of possession by a 34/28 margin. Howard ran 23 times for 138 yards and two touchdowns, while the Bears defense limited Pittsburgh's supposed vaunted offense to one touchdown in each half.

Chicago might not have even needed overtime, if not for that bonehead play on that blocked field-goal return in the second quarter by Marcus Cooper.

The Bears opened this season with that 23-17 loss to Atlanta, but they had chances to win that game. Chicago ran four plays from the Falcons' five-yard line in the final half-minute, but they came up empty.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Facing a 1-2 start right in the mouth, the Packers awoke just in time last Sunday to beat Cincinnati 27-24, also in overtime. Green Bay fell down to the Bengals 7-0 five minutes in, trailed 21-7 at the half and 24-17 with four minutes to go. But Aaron Rodgers willed the Pack down the field and connected with Jordy Nelson for a short score to force OT.

They then won it when Rodgers connected with wide receiver Geronimo Allison for a 72-yard catch-and-run that set up Mason Crosby's game-winning field goal.

On the day, Green Bay outgained Cincinnati 344-301. Rodgers threw for 313 yards and three touchdowns but also threw a pick-six, while Allison caught six balls for 122 yards, including the big one at the end. The Packers are now 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS over their last six home games.

          

Smart pick

Chicago just upset Pittsburgh and could be ripe for a letdown. But two things help stave off letdowns: a running game and a defense—the Bears have both. Green Bay, meanwhile, should feel fortunate to have gotten past Cincinnati. Also, while the Packers beat Chicago twice last year, both games were close. The smart money here at sports betting sites wagers the Bears.

         

NFL betting trends

The Bears are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against the Packers.

The total has gone over in five of the Bears' last seven games against the Packers.

The Packers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games at home against teams with losing records.

        

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.