Week 1 NFL Picks: Season-Opening Betting Odds, Vegas Spreads and Projections

While exciting, the first week of the NFL season is one of the most difficult for bettors to get right when it comes to the spreads out of Las Vegas.

Those expected powerful offenses aren't so hot when it comes to the opening week sometimes because they have only had exhibitions with vanilla usages to work with—and the same can apply to defenses and any random individuals. 

Look at last year, when the Green Bay Packers hardly escaped the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-23, the Kansas City Chiefs needed overtime to get past the then-San Diego Chargers 33-27 and the Seattle Seahawks almost lost at home to the Miami Dolphins, 12-10. 

It makes for an exciting week, sure. But it also means bettors can run into some bankroll trouble early. Let's take a look. 

NFL Week 1 Schedule, Odds

Kansas City at New England (-7)

Arizona at Detroit (-3)

Atlanta (-6) at Chicago

Baltimore at Cincinnati (-1.5)

Jacksonville at Houston (-4)

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo (-5.5)

Oakland at Tennessee (-1)

Philadelphia at Washington (-2.5)

Pittsburgh (-8.5) at Cleveland

Tampa Bay at Miami (-2.5)

Indianapolis (-3) at L.A. Rams

Carolina (-4) at San Francisco

Seattle at Green Bay (-3)

N.Y. Giants at Dallas (-5.5)

New Orleans at Minnesota (-3.5)

LA Chargers vs. Denver (-3.5) 

Bold denotes predicted winner against the spread. 

Kansas City at New England (-7)

It doesn't get much better than this as a kickoff edition for Thursday Night Football. 

Starting in Foxborough with the New England Patriots is a good time regardless of opponent. This, on paper, seems especially the case considering the opponent is what seems like a game Chiefs squad.  

Well, Las Vegas oddsmakers don't seem as excited. 

It isn't too hard to see why. The Chiefs tend to struggle away from home, so asking them to hit the road during the first week of the season against a team like the Patriots seems like a recipe for disaster. Even worse, the team won't have the presence of a pass rusher like Tamba Hali to pressure Tom Brady. 

Not that Brady will ever act like his team has an advantage. 

"There will definitely be nerves and being anxious, but that's part of football," Brady said, according to ESPN.com's Mike Reiss. "Once you get out there and get going, those things calm down."

Bettors might think this is a time to strike against the Patriots. The offense could be uneven in the first week. It lost Julian Edelman to a serious injury. But a more crystallized reality starts to sink in more after one looks at the matchup.

We're talking about Tom Brady of all people. He has new weapons in the form of Brandin Cooks and Phillip Dorsett. Commissioner Roger Goodell will likely be there. The Chiefs aren't exactly known for a high-octane offense. Combine it all and expect the Patriots to cover. 

Prediction: Patriots 34, Chiefs 24

Arizona at Detroit (-3)

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Here is an interesting underdog angle for bettors to consider.  

The Detroit Lions open up as favorites here at home, though the same usual questions seem to persist around quarterback Matthew Stafford: Can the line keep him upright? Will the Ameer Abdullah-led running game finally produce? Can the defense keep opposing offenses in check? 

For the visitors, the biggest question boils down to whether they can perform well on the road. 

But we know the rest. David Johnson, a year removed from 1,239 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns with another 879 yards and four scores as a receiver, is a clear-cut MVP favorite. The defense, thanks to names like Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu, give opposing offenses fits. 

And though he had a down year a season ago, most have raved about how alive Carson Palmer's arm looks this preseason, something on full display via this pretty arc pass recently: 

In what should be a close game, bettors can throw weight behind the more complete team. Arizona's defense will cause some problems for Detroit, and the Lions—like most of the league—won't have an answer for Johnson out of the backfield. 

Prediction: Cardinals 27, Lions 23

Pittsburgh (-8.5) at Cleveland

This isn't the week to get cute when it comes to the Cleveland Browns.  

Yes, the Browns continue to make rapid improvements under the guidance of head coach Hue Jackson. Yes, rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer provides some interesting wrinkles to this encounter. And yes, the Browns lost 24-9 against the Pittsburgh Steelers last year before turning it around and coming up short in a 27-24 overtime finale to close the season.  

Keep in mind, though, said finale didn't feature Ben Roethlisberger among others. 

The gap between the Steelers and Browns remains huge and will for a few more years. It's not meant to discredit the path the Browns continue to travel toward relevancy; it's more like it's a simple reality. Recent history backs the claim. In 2015, it was 30-9 and 28-12 wins for Pittsburgh. 

Maybe if Le'Veon Bell hadn't returned to the Steelers after offseason drama this would be easier to at least consider the Browns against the spread. But he's back and confident, per ESPN.com's Jeremy Fowler. 

"I'm confident in the things I can do on a football field. I'm just worried about going out there and winning games. ... I've got to go out there and prove myself, stay healthy, stay on the field, the rest will take care of itself," Bell said. 

Cleveland has some strong new defensive elements like Myles Garrett and Jabrill Peppers, but in his one game against the Browns a year ago, Bell cruised for 146 yards and a touchdown on a 5.2 per-carry average and added another 55 yards on eight catches. 

Now expand that to keep in mind Big Ben and the passing attack. Kizer looks the part of a potential high-end quarterback, but expecting him to keep pace with Roethlisberger in his NFL debut is akin to tossing cash in a fire. 

Prediction: Steelers 35, Browns 20

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Odds via OddsShark.