NFL Predictions Week 1: Odds, Picks and Projections for Opening Schedule

The wait is over; on Thursday night, the Kansas City Chiefs and defending Super Bowl champions the New England Patriots will kick off the 2017 NFL season in their clash on NBC. 

Gone are the days of having to watch third-string quarterbacks pass the ball to future practice-squad players. NFL roster cutdowns concluded on Saturday, and from here on out there's only "real" football as far as the eye can see. 

Week 1 picks and projections are always a tricky business. With no regular-season snaps to go on, oddsmakers tend to heavily favor home teams, as you'll see below. For instance, should the Detroit Lions really be three-point favorites over the visiting Arizona Cardinals?

To that end, the following picks for the results of each matchup take not only OddsShark's numbers into account, but also the strength of each team's roster after free agency, the NFL draft and the latest additions and subtractions leading up to the roster cut deadline. 

Week 1 NFL Odds, Picks and Projections

Thursday, Sept. 7

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots (-7): 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC; Pick: Patriots

Sunday, Sept. 10

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (-5.5): 1 p.m. ET, CBS; Pick: Bills

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington (-2.5): 1 p.m. ET, Fox; Pick: Eagles

Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans (-1): 1 p.m. ET, CBS; Pick: Raiders 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5): 1 p.m. ET, Fox; Pick: Bucs

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-4): 1 p.m. ET, CBS; Pick: Texans

Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions (-3): 1 p.m. ET, Fox; Pick: Cardinals

Atlanta Falcons (-6) @ Chicago Bears: 1 p.m. ET, Fox; Pick: Falcons

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5): 1 p.m. ET, CBS; Pick: Bengals

Pittsburgh (-8.5) Steelers @ Cleveland Browns: 1 p.m ET, CBS; Pick: Steelers 

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Los Angeles Rams: 4:05 p.m. ET; CBS; Pick: Colts

Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers (-3): 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox; Pick: Packers

Carolina Panthers (-4) @ San Francisco 49ers: 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox: Pick: Panthers

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-5.5): 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC; Pick: Cowboys 

Monday, Sept. 11

New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5): 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN; Pick: Saints

Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (-3.5): 10:20 p.m. ET, ESPN; Pick: Broncos

Must-Watch Matchups

Chiefs at Patriots

Kansas City and New England will meet in Foxborough, Massachusetts, on Thursday in a game that will pit two teams that made the AFC playoffs in 2016 against one another. 

The Patriots of this season will look different than the Patriots that hoisted the Lombardi Trophy in February in a couple of significant ways. Looming large is the absence of wide receiver Julian Edelman, who tore his ACL in the preseason and was placed on injured reserve. 

Edelman caught 98 passes for 1,106 yards and scored three touchdowns in 2016. The Patriots are hoping to replace some of that production with speedster Brandin Cooks, whom they traded for in March. And with tight end Rob Gronkowski healthy again following back surgery last season, Tom Brady's offense should be as potent as ever. 

But if any defense can hope to contain New England's passing attack, Kansas City would be a contender. The Chiefs team that went 12-4 in 2016 may have lost Dontari Poe in free agency, but the team brought in Bennie Logan to contain the run. Moreover, outside linebacker Justin Houston is finally healthy. Then there's shutdown corner Marcus Peters. 

On offense, running back Spencer Ware is on injured reserve, so the Chiefs will be looking for rookie Kareem Hunt to make a contribution immediately. 

If the Patriots win this game, they'll merely be meeting expectations. If the Chiefs win, they can immediately send a message to the league about their postseason aspirations. 

Projection: Patriots 30, Chiefs 21

Seahawks at Packers

The Seahawks and the Packers last opened their seasons against each other in 2014, when the Packers traveled to Seattle and were subsequently whooped 36-16 before Seattle proceeded to knock Green Bay out of the playoffs later that same season.

However, since then, the Seahawks have gone 0-2 against the Packers, with both games going down at Lambeau Field. Thus, if you had to bet on which team is going to win this season opener, taking place at Lambeau, the Packers have an edge. 

Green Bay looks different from the team that Seattle last faced in December. Packers general manager Ted Thompson made some uncharacteristic free-agent signings this year, adding tight ends Martellus Bennett and Lance Kendricks in the spring and, most recently, picking up linebacker Ahmad Brooks. 

Former wide receiver Ty Montgomery was confirmed as the Packers' No. 1 running back by head coach Mike McCarthy on Monday. Add in pass-catchers Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb, and the Packers offense is looking as deadly as ever.

As for Seattle, former Packer Eddie Lacy will be lining up against his old team for Seattle, and the Seahawks also have Thomas Rawls, C.J. Prosise and rookie Chris Carson in the backfield. But the offensive line is a question mark, and so those rushers, as well as Russell Wilson, may have to pick up some of the slack. 

On defense, Earl Thomas is healthy again, and that should scare the Packers. He and Kam Chancellor, newly acquired Sheldon Richardson and Richard Sherman make up what continues to be a strong Seattle defense. 

Projection: Packers 24, Seahawks 23

Giants at Cowboys

Week 1. Division rivalry. Sunday Night Football. There are few factors that could make for better television as the New York Giants travel to take on the Dallas Cowboys in prime time. 

The huge storyline here is, of course, the fact that Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott is set to serve a six-game suspension following the league's review of the domestic violence case against him. 

Elliott appealed, and Harold Henderson, the arbitrator for the appeal, is reviewing his case, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. 

If Elliott is unavailable, quarterback Dak Prescott, wideout Dez Bryant, tight end Jason Witten and veteran rusher Darren McFadden will attempt to stymie a strong Giants defense. New York finished the 2016 regular season with the second-best scoring defense in the league, allowing just 17.8 points per game. 

As for the Giants, Eli Manning will have a bevy of weapons at his disposal, including veteran wideout Brandon Marshall.

However, he may not have his favorite target available; Odell Beckham Jr., recovering from a preseason ankle injury, did not practice Monday, per NFL.com's Marc Sessler. There are no indications yet on whether he'll miss the season opener. 

If Elliott's absence renders Prescott less effective, the Giants may be able to smell the blood in the water and come away with this one for a win. But if Dallas' other weapons can make the best of the situation, expect the Cowboys to live up to their status as favorites. 

Projection: Cowboys 28, Giants 20

All odds information courtesy of OddsShark.