NFL Power Rankings 2017: Appraising All 32 Teams Before Week 1

Last year's Super Bowl perfectly encapsulated the NFL's dichotomy of parity and predictability.

The New England Patriots hoisting the Lombardi Trophy surprised nobody with the most basic level of football knowledge. In a league perfectly crafted for volatility, Tom Brady has led his squad to 13 AFC East titles in 14 seasons. The singular playoff absence occurred in 2008, when the star quarterback suffered a season-ending ACL tear in Week 1.

Few prognosticators, on the other hand, envisioned the Atlanta Falcons becoming a second-half collapse away from winning it all. A year before Matt Ryan's earned MVP honors, he threw 21 touchdowns and 16 interceptions during a mediocre 8-8 campaign.

There are few constants fans can trust heading into 2017. As long as Brady stays healthy, the Pats will return to the playoffs. For the sixth straight time, the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks should notch bids on the NFC side.

But there's still ample room for unexpected turns. While the Falcons, Dallas Cowboys and Oakland Raiders took giant leaps last year, the Carolina Panthers, Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals became casualties to small-sample misfortune.

Based on these NFL power rankings entering Week 1, a trio of 2016 playoff participants will make way for new blood. Let's take a look at those regression candidates.

NFL Power Rankings

1. New England Patriots

2. Seattle Seahawks

3. Atlanta Falcons

4. Pittsburgh Steelers

5. Green Bay Packers

6. Oakland Raiders

7. Dallas Cowboys

8. Kansas City Chiefs

9. New York Giants

10. Denver Broncos

11. Tennessee Titans

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

13. Arizona Cardinals

14. Philadelphia Eagles

15. Cincinnati Bengals

16. Minnesota Vikings

17. Carolina Panthers

18. Detroit Lions

19. Baltimore Ravens

20. Washington Redskins

21. Miami Dolphins

22. Houston Texans

23. Indianapolis Colts

24. Los Angeles Chargers

25. New Orleans Saints

26. Jacksonville Jaguars

27. Los Angeles Rams

28. Buffalo Bills

29. Chicago Bears

30. Cleveland Browns

31. San Francisco 49ers

32. New York Jets

Miami Dolphins

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The Miami Dolphins were benefactors of circumstance last season, exploiting a cupcake schedule to snatch the AFC's final wild-card spot. In 2017, they will face more challenges preventing them from following that blueprint.

Despite their 10-6 record, the Dolphins finished with a minus-17 point differential and Football Outsiders' No. 18 Defense-adjusted Value over Average (DVOA). They earned eight of their victories—all against teams with losing records, including an overtime win over the 1-15 Cleveland Browns—by seven points or fewer.

On the bright side, they once again get four games against the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills, who are seemingly vying for last place in hopes of securing a new franchise quarterback in next year's draft. But in addition to their two regularly scheduled losses to the Patriots, they face the potent AFC West and rising NFC South.

According to ESPN.com, they have the sixth-toughest strength of schedule.

Although they flaunt star power on offense and defense, both units also lack depth, particularly at offensive line and linebacker. Of course, none of those concerns will matter if Jay Cutler doesn't hold his own under center.

Dating back to 2013, the Chicago Bears went 17-29 when the erratic quarterback played. Pro Football Focus graded last year's dismal five-game showing below every starting passer besides Jared Goff and Blaine Gabbert, which leaves one to wonder if they're better off letting competent backup Matt Moore handle the reins.

Cutler will have help from Jay Ajayi, Jarvis Landry and trendy breakout candidate DeVante Parker, but the 34-year-old won't save a team poised to regress even with a healthy Ryan Tannehill.

Detroit Lions

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Including a 26-6 postseason loss to the Seahawks, the Detroit Lions went 1-6 against teams with winning records last year. The lone victory? A 20-17 triumph over 8-7-1 Washington after getting outgained by 69 total yards but recovering two fumbles.

These struggles are nothing new for a franchise that couldn't even beat bad teams before drafting Matthew Stafford. As he reminisced to ESPN.com's Michael Rothstein, the 2009 No. 1 pick joined the Lions after they completed the worst season in NFL history.

"When I was drafted here, we were obviously coming off an 0-16 season and in a lot of ways needed some new breath and a direction," Stafford said. "I was lucky and happy and honored to be a part of getting it from where it was then to where it is now, and hopefully that exponential of a jump can happen again and we can go from where we are now to where we really want to be, and that's hoisting a Lombardi Trophy."

Even if they're merely average, that's a huge improvement from laughing stock. Yet the Dan Le Batard Show used the team's shortcomings in tough situations as an indictment of the NFL's highest-paid quarterback:

Stafford isn't the problem. Without him engineering eight game-winning drives, the Lions wouldn't have sniffed the postseason. They needed his heroics to overcome the NFL's No. 30 rushing offense and a defense that finished dead last in DVOA. 

Free-agent signings Paul Worrilow and Cornelius Washington should help the front seven, and rookies Jarrad Davis and Teez Tabor could fill major defensive deficiencies. But it may take time before those additions yield results.

If the Lions truly are a middling team who masqueraded as a playoff squad, they'll get exposed quickly. They will encounter five of last year's top-10 offenses in the opening half of their schedule. The other matchups pit them against top-10 defenses—New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings—and a Panthers squad not far removed from a Super Bowl appearance.

When the Lions made the playoffs in 2014, a 7-9 season followed. They're likely to experience a similar decline in 2017.

Houston Texans

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Rookie quarterback DeShaun Watson can't play much worse than Brock Osweiler. With Andrew Luck's status still uncertain, perhaps a healthy J.J. Watt can lead the Houston Texans to another AFC South title.

They cannot, however, expect to crawl their way to another 9-7 season with a minus-49 point differential and No. 29 overall DVOA.

After allowing the fewest yards per game (301.3) without Watt last year, the Texans will welcome back their superstar from two back surgeries. They will need him at full strength, as Watson can't be expected to resurrect a feeble offense.

There's temptation to stay in Texas and make the lazy Dak Prescott comparison, but he's the exception to first-year quarterback success. The Jacksonville Jaguars could become a tough matchup for the neophyte, and the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts have the offensive talent to secure double-digit wins. 

Out of the three highlighted squads, the Texans still have the cleanest road back to the postseason. Nine wins could claim the lackluster division, especially if they muster another 5-1 mark against AFC South opponents. If Watt rediscovers his All-Pro form and Watson produces average returns, they're looking at another brief playoff appearance.

Some favorable matchups give them the chance to stamp a fourth straight 9-7 campaign, but look for the Jaguars, Titans and Colts—assuming Luck is healthy for their Week 9 and 17 meetings—to cost the Texans one or two pivotal wins and a postseason spot.

Note: All DVOA data obtained from Football Outsiders.