Legit or Nah? 'Contender or Pretender' for MLB Playoff Race with 2 Months Left
The MLB postseason picture is coming into focus with two months to go in the regular season and the non-waiver trade deadline now passed.
Nine teams stand as clear-cut contenders with very real hopes of reaching the playoffs.
On the opposite end, there are 12 teams that can safely be lumped into the column of "non-contender."
The focus here is on those other nine teams that reside on the fringe of contention.
Are they legit contenders or nah?
Obvious Contenders and Clear Non-Contenders
1 of 10
Before we get started, here's a look at the teams that fell into the categories of obvious contenders and clear non-contenders based on their current postseason odds from FanGraphs:
Obvious Contenders (70 percent playoff probability or better)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (100 percent)
- Houston Astros (100 percent)
- Washington Nationals (99.8 percent)
- Cleveland Indians (96.9 percent)
- Chicago Cubs (93.9 percent)
- Boston Red Sox (92.3 percent)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (88 percent)
- Colorado Rockies (79.7 percent)
- New York Yankees (72.3 percent)
Clear Non-Contenders (5 percent playoff probability or less)
- Chicago White Sox (0 percent)
- Cincinnati Reds (0 percent)
- Philadelphia Phillies (0 percent)
- San Diego Padres (0 percent)
- San Francisco Giants (0 percent)
- Atlanta Braves (0.3 percent)
- Oakland Athletics (0.3 percent)
- New York Mets (2.6 percent)
- Detroit Tigers (2.9 percent)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (3.0 percent)
- Miami Marlins (4.6 percent)
- Texas Rangers (4.9 percent)
Baltimore Orioles
2 of 10
Record: 53-54, fourth in AL East
Games Back: 5.5 GB in division, 2.5 GB in wild card
Postseason Probability: 7.4 percent
Deadline Recap
Despite significant interest in relievers Zach Britton and Brad Brach, the Baltimore Orioles opted against selling at the deadline and instead acquired a rental starter (Jeremy Hellickson) and a shortstop upgrade (Tim Beckham) for the stretch run.
Legit or Nah?
This team wasn't two mid-level pieces away from making a title run.
Adding Hellickson to a starting staff that ranks 29th in the majors with a 5.65 ERA is the classic "Band-Aid on a bullet wound" move, and Beckham is a 1.3 WAR player with a 97 OPS+.
They're riding a nice five-game winning streak right now, but they haven't posted a winning month overall since April and continue to struggle mightily away from Camden Yards with a 20-33 road record.
A run at a .500 record isn't out of the question, but it's going to take more than that to claim a wild card berth, even in the wide-open American League.
Verdict: Nah
Kansas City Royals
3 of 10
Record: 55-51, second in AL Central
Games Back: 2.5 GB in division, +0.5 G in wild card
Postseason Probability: 43.3 percent
Deadline Recap
Most expected the Kansas City Royals to be one of baseball's busiest sellers leading up to the non-waiver deadline, but they kept the band together for one last playoff push. They didn't have the prospect talent to swing a major deal but did pick up a trio of arms from the Padres (Trevor Cahill, Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter) and reunited with outfielder Melky Cabrera.
Legit or Nah?
The Royals looked like sure-fire sellers in early June when they were tied for the second-worst record in the AL at 26-34.
Since that time, they've gone 29-17 with a plus-46 run differential, good for the second-best record in all of baseball during that span, trailing only the streaking Los Angeles Dodgers.
Not only is Kansas City very much in the hunt for a wild-card berth, it's also well within striking distance of the Cleveland Indians—a team it'll play 10 more times head-to-head—for a shot at the AL Central title.
Whether the Royals can make a significant postseason run with a rotation fronted by Danny Duffy, Jason Vargas and Ian Kennedy and a bullpen that's a shell of what it was during their recent October trips remains to be seen.
Anything can happen once you punch that ticket to the playoffs, though.
Verdict: Legit
Los Angeles Angels
4 of 10
Record: 53-55, third in AL West
Games Back: 16.5 GB in division, 3.0 GB in wild card
Postseason Probability: 10.5 percent
Deadline Recap
Without major trade chips to deal or significant prospects to make a splashy addition, it was a quiet deadline for the Los Angeles Angels. They flipped reliever David Hernandez and listened on closer Bud Norris, who could still be moved in August if they slip further back in the standings.
Legit or Nah?
For the good of the sport, Mike Trout needs to be a regular October participant.
The game's best player has a grand total of three postseason games under his belt here in his seventh MLB season, and there's a good chance he'll be watching the playoffs on TV once again this year.
The Angels don't have the arms or the offensive firepower beyond their superstar center fielder.
The rotation has been sans Garrett Richards, Tyler Skaggs, Nick Tropeano and Andrew Heaney for most of the season, and they're currently sharing the disabled list with Matt Shoemaker and Alex Meyer.
Guys like JC Ramirez and Parker Bridwell have stepped in admirably, but teams without a clear front-line starter on the staff don't often find themselves in the postseason.
Verdict: Nah
Milwaukee Brewers
5 of 10
Record: 56-53, second in NL Central
Games Back: 2.5 GB in division, 5.5 GB in wild card
Postseason Probability: 7.0 percent
Deadline Recap
The Milwaukee Brewers resisted the urge to mortgage some of their prized prospect chips for a run at Sonny Gray, instead settling for adding Anthony Swarzak and Jeremy Jeffress to the relief corps.
Legit or Nah?
The Brewers have essentially been playing with house money this season. Few expected them to be ready to contend this soon in their rebuild, and no one would have guessed they'd be perched atop the NL Central standings at the All-Star break.
However, what was a 5.5-game lead in the standings has withered to a 2.5-game deficit as they've gone 6-12 with a minus-22 run differential in the second half.
With a strong possibility that both wild cards come out of the NL West, the Brewers are going to have to rein in the Chicago Cubs and win the division title if they're going to make the playoffs.
Right now, those are two teams headed in opposite directions.
Verdict: Nah
Minnesota Twins
6 of 10
Record: 51-54, third in AL Central
Games Back: 6.0 GB in division, 3.5 GB in wild card
Postseason Probability: 5.1 percent
Deadline Recap
A 1-6 stretch of games before the deadline was enough to convince the Minnesota Twins to sell. They missed their chance to sell high on Ervin Santana, but they were able to flip All-Star closer Brandon Kintzler.
Legit or Nah?
Remember when the Twins were surprise contenders in 2015?
They hung around in the wild-card race and finished the season 83-79, but it was largely a mirage, as they were propped up by a 30-19 record over the first two months before sliding back to mediocrity the rest of the way.
It's been a similar story for this year's team.
They didn't jump out to quite the same hot start, going 26-23 over the first two months, but that was still good enough for a share of first place in the AL Central.
Since then, they've gone 25-31 and looked very much like also-rans.
They may only be 3.5 games back in the wild-card standings, but there are six teams ahead of them, and all six are playing better baseball right now.
Verdict: Nah
Seattle Mariners
7 of 10
Record: 55-54, second in AL West
Games Back: 15.0 GB in division, 1.5 GB in wild card
Postseason Probability: 22.1 percent
Deadline Recap
The Seattle Mariners added David Phelps and Erasmo Ramirez to the pitching staff at the deadline. Ramirez stepped into the rotation spot that has been a revolving door since Hisashi Iwakuma hit the disabled list, while Phelps joins Nick Vincent in setting up closer Edwin Diaz.
Legit or Nah?
The Mariners haven't reached the postseason since 2001, and general manager Jerry Dipoto has been wheeling and dealing in his two years at the helm trying to break that drought.
They've gone 12-7 since the All-Star break with quality series wins against the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros along the way, and a healthy James Paxton has given them the staff ace they were lacking since Felix Hernandez isn't pitching at his usual level.
The offense is averaging a solid 4.7 runs per game on the season, and the pitching staff has a 3.68 ERA in the second half—good for fourth in the AL.
It's debatable whether this team can make a serious playoff run without a clear standout starter behind Paxton. However, it at least has enough talent to grab a wild-card spot and end the drought.
Verdict: Legit
St. Louis Cardinals
8 of 10
Record: 53-54, third in NL Central
Games Back: 4.5 GB in division, 7.5 GB in wild card
Postseason Probability: 21.0 percent
Deadline Recap
The St. Louis Cardinals had the most attractive rental starter available not named Yu Darvish, and selling high on Tommy Pham was an intriguing possibility as well. When the dust settled on the trade deadline, though, they wound up standing pat.
Legit or Nah?
Suffice it to say things have not gone according to plan for the Cardinals this season. Wednesday night's lineup was the perfect example.
Someone who hasn't watched the team play this season might think a lineup that features the likes of Tommy Pham, Paul DeJong, Luke Voit and Jose Martinez was a result of the offense's being decimated by injuries or that the Cardinals were resting a number of starters on a travel day.
Instead, it's the team's best lineup right now.
Credit the Cardinals for consistently infusing the big league roster with homegrown talent, but this group is a far cry from the club that won 100 games a couple of years ago.
Still, the pitching staff is capable of carrying this team for long stretches.
If Lance Lynn (6 GS, 3-1, 1.47 ERA) and Michael Wacha (5 GS, 4-1, 1.93 ERA) keep pitching like they did in July, the rest of the rotation pulls its weight and Trevor Rosenthal continues to be a lockdown option in the ninth inning, a late push is a strong possibility.
Verdict: Legit
Tampa Bay Rays
9 of 10
Record: 56-53, third in AL East
Games Back: 3.5 GB in division, 0.5 GB in wild card
Postseason Probability: 35.8 percent
Deadline Recap
The Tampa Bay Rays didn't exactly go all-in at the trade deadline, but by their standards, it was a busy July. They added slugger Lucas Duda to the middle of the lineup while acquiring Dan Jennings, Sergio Romo and Steve Cishek to bolster the relief corps.
Legit or Nah?
The Rays have long been a team that goes as far as the starting rotation can carry it, and the staff has done a lot of the heavy lifting once again this season as they rank second in the AL with a 4.07 starters' ERA.
However, there's a lot more punch to this lineup than in years past.
Evan Longoria is no longer the only power threat as the trio of Corey Dickerson (.877 OPS, 21 HR), Steven Souza Jr. (.880 OPS, 22 HR) and Logan Morrison (.904 OPS, 28 HR) has helped the team rank fourth in the majors with 158 home runs.
A postseason rotation of Chris Archer, Alex Cobb, Jake Odorizzi and Jacob Faria has a chance to be formidable, and the offense is dangerous, leaving the bullpen as the biggest question mark.
Their deadline pickups amount to a useful lefty middle reliever and a pair of former standout closers that are lottery tickets at this point in their careers. Will that group be good enough when the intensity is ramped up?
We shall see, but it's wise not to underestimate the Rays.
Verdict: Legit
Toronto Blue Jays
10 of 10
Record: 51-57, fifth in AL East
Games Back: 8.0 GB in division, 5.0 GB in wild card
Postseason Probability: 6.1 percent
Deadline Recap
The Toronto Blue Jays swung one of the better deals of the deadline when they turned struggling lefty Francisco Liriano into outfield prospect Teoscar Hernandez. They also flipped reliever Joe Smith to the Cleveland Indians for a pair of prospects.
Legit or Nah?
Following consecutive ALCS appearances, the Toronto Blue Jays rank as one of baseball's most disappointing teams this year.
The starting rotation that led the AL with a 3.64 ERA and tied for the MLB lead with 100 quality starts a year ago has stumbled to a 4.75 ERA. Offensive production has dipped from 4.7 to 4.2 runs per game even though a breakout season from Justin Smoak has gone a long way toward replacing the departed Edwin Encarnacion.
This team just isn't as good as the one that looked like a serious World Series contender the past two years.
The Blue Jays resisted the urge to sell big and held on to guys like Josh Donaldson and J.A. Happ, but that's not going to be enough. It might be time to start considering those types of moves once the offseason rolls around.
Verdict: Nah
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, while all postseason probability numbers come via FanGraphs.
