Matt Miller's Scouting Notebook: Early Takes on Top QBs, Lamar Jackson and More

I was asked on Twitter this week how much time I take to decompress before moving onto the 2018 draft class. The answer? None. 

On the flight home from covering the draft in New York at B/R headquarters, my assistant Marshal Miller and I were already watching 2018 quarterbacks. Since that time, cornerbacks have been added while working down a preliminary top 50 list for initial scouting notes. NFL teams have moved on, so we have too. Over the summer, you'll get a look ahead at next year's class that you're unlikely to find anywhere else.

This first offseason Scouting Notebook will be a strong look ahead while glancing into the rearview briefly for any final thoughts on the 2017 draft. When talking about next year, we have to start with the quarterbacks.

Four players—Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen and Mason Rudolph—will all get serious Round 1 talk as the college season starts back up. Each has talent and at least one big question mark that could crash his potential. 

Allen is a big kid with a rocket arm and great athleticism, but he's wild with the ball and lives outside the pocket. Think of him as a bigger Patrick Mahomes. Darnold has only started nine games at USC, and while he was a great leader for the Trojans, he has a long throwing motion that few in the NFL have ever succeeded with. Rosen is the biggest name of the group, but he missed most of 2016 with a throwing shoulder injury and is already being labeled as a red flag from scouts who've gone through UCLA, due to his outspoken ways. Rudolph has the size and numbers, but was given a Day 3 grade from scouts I spoke to during the 2016 season. Once teams dig in on him, will the hype die?

We have 11 months to learn everything there is to know about the quarterbacks and all the prospects in next year's class...which means it's time to get started.

Here's what my team is working on this week:

• Updated 2018 Round 1 Mock Draft
• Five Names to Know for 2018
• Who's next at Alabama, LSU, Washington and Michigan?
• How the NFL sees Heisman winner Lamar Jackson

The Scout's Report 

—Lamar Jackson took home the Heisman Trophy last season, but already NFL teams are starting to find cracks in the game of the Louisville quarterback. On this week's Stick to Football podcast, co-host Connor Rogers shared a note from a scout he spoke to that said Jackson "isn't an NFL quarterback." Jackson's size is an automatic issue when looking at the tape, but I'm waiting until there's more time to study him before making a decision on where he'll play in the NFL. 

John Raoux/Associated Press/Associated Press/Associated Press

—The Green Bay Packers had a solid 2017 draft class. So solid, in fact, that one scout with the team told me it was the best draft they've had during his run there. The team landed Kevin King, Josh Jones, Montravius Adams, Vince Biegel, Jamaal Williams, DeAngelo Yancey and Aaron Jones in the first five rounds. All seven players could be serious contributors this year.

—The Buffalo Bills made the hire of new GM Brandon Beane official on Tuesday, hiring him away from the Carolina Panthers. I asked around the league for an opinion on Beane and heard most commonly that his lack of experience as a scout (having worked mainly on the football operations side) would be the biggest hurdle in his success. Said one general manager, "Brandon will need to surround himself with good scouts; like what [Chris] Ballard is doing in Indy."

—Speaking of Chris Ballard, the new GM of the Indianapolis Colts had an A-plus off-season. First, he nailed free agency by bolstering his defense, and then collected two of my top 10 players in the draft class by selecting Malik Hooker and Quincy Wilson. Ballard then cleaned house, getting former GM Ryan Grigson's scouts out of the building and brought in his own crew. So far, that crew is one of the best in the business. Ed Dodds, hired away from Seattle, is a name I've heard mentioned repeatedly by scouts and general managers over the last two years as an elite scout—one even said he's the best scout in the league. Rex Hogan comes over from the New York Jets and Morocco Brown is formerly of the Cleveland Browns. All three men are highly respected evaluators and managers—which is part of what made Ballard such an intriguing general manager candidate. He's well-connected and people want to work for him. The Colts' front office is a great representation of that.

—One name floated in the Bills' search for a new head man was Brett Veach of the Kansas City Chiefs. Keep his name in mind for future openings. Veach came to the Chiefs from Philadelphia with Andy Reid and has been climbing the chart there. A few other names to watch—Trent Kirchner (Seahawks), Brian Gutekunst (Packers), Brian Heimerdinger (NY Jets), Eliot Wolf (Packers), Dodds (Colts), Omar Khan (Steelers) and Brian Gaine (Texans).

Michael Thomas/Associated Press

—One thing the 2017 class lacked was elite offensive tackle talent—the first one came off the board at pick No. 20 and only two were selected in the first round. That should change in 2018 with four or five potential Round 1 talents. The top player out there is Texas left tackle Connor Williams. At a listed 6'6" and 288 pounds, Williams has the length and athleticism teams want while looking much bigger than that listed size. He's also incredibly productive and has held opponents to just one sack in two years. And that lone sack surrendered came on a quarterback scramble.

—The running back position seems to be valued again after two went in the first eight picks of the 2017 draft. That's great news for Penn State's Saquon Barkley. It's easy to fall in love with the skill set of No. 26 given his bulk, balance, speed and what he brings in the passing game. Barkley's early comparison is Ezekiel Elliott.

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

—It's early, but the strengths of next year's class could be at quarterback and offensive tackle, barring injury or regression. That's great news after the 2017 class saw only 10 quarterbacks and 15 offensive tackles drafted. Both numbers are below average for the last five years. 

5 Names to Know 

5. Tarvarus McFadden, Cornerback (FSU) 

After grabbing eight interceptions in 2016, Tarvarus McFadden makes the early season watch list as one of the best cornerbacks in the nation. The 6'2", 200-pound junior has the size, length, speed and ball skills everyone wants at the position. Early on, he's reminiscent of Eli Apple at Ohio State. McFadden needs to clean up some technique, but the talent to be a top-tier NFL cornerback is there.

4. Courtland Sutton, Wide Receiver (SMU)

A redshirt junior at SMU, Courtland Sutton would have been a first-round wide receiver on my 2017 draft board. He may end up WR1 for 2018. His size (6'4", 215 lbs) and catch radius make him a monster threat down the field and in the red zone. Teams that liked Mike Williams last year will be all over Sutton.

Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

3. Denzel Ward, Cornerback (Ohio State) 

Another first-round cornerback from Ohio State? Yep. Denzel Ward is a player coaches and teammates have mentioned as the next great Buckeye cornerback. He's not as big as some of the recent corners to come out of Columbus, but at 5'10" and 191 pounds, he's shown sticky coverage skills and great technique on the edge.

2. Anthony Averett, Cornerback (Alabama)

Teammate Minkah Fitzpatrick has the higher preseason ranking, but Anthony Averett flashes every time you watch Alabama play. The redshirt senior has improved tremendously over the last two seasons and has the size (6'0", 185 lbs) and instincts to climb the rankings once the games start.

1. Quinton Flowers, Quarterback (South Florida)

Quinton Flowers isn't in the top-five quarterbacks for the 2018 draft and may not crack the top 10, but he's an interesting name to watch moving forward. Flowers is small (6'0", 210 lbs) but quick and aggressive as a passer. It wouldn't be a surprise to see evaluators fall in love with his arm and dual-threat ability.

The Mock Draft 

When I was growing up, my brother and I would buy every NFL draft guide we could find in the supermarket every spring. One of my favorite parts of those guides was the last page, where the analysts would look ahead to the next year. That list would become my bible for the summer in these pre-Internet days. Maybe it's because of that experience that I'll never say it's too early to talk about next year. Maybe not everyone wants an early big board or mock draft, but I always did and I imagine a few of you do too. So here we go. An early 2018 mock draft using OddShark Super Bowl odds for the draft order.

1. Cleveland	DL Christian Wilkins, Clemson
2. San Francisco	QB Josh Allen, Wyoming
3. N.Y. Jets	RB Saquon Barkley, Penn State
4. L.A. Rams	OT Connor Williams, Texas
5. Chicago	S Derwin James, FSU
6. Jacksonville	QB Josh Rosen, UCLA
7. Buffalo	QB Sam Darnold, USC
8. L.A. Chargers	EDGE Arden Key, LSU
9. Detroit	CB Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama
10. New Orleans	CB Tarvarus McFadden, FSU
11. Philadelphia	RB Derrius Guice, LSU
12. Washington	LB Malik Jefferson, Texas
13. Miami	OT Mike McGlinchey, Notre Dame
14. Cincinnati	OT Mitch Hyatt, Clemson
15. Baltimore	WR Courtland Sutton, SMU
16. Tampa Bay	DL Da'Shawn Hand, Alabama
17. Tennessee	WR Deon Cain, Clemson
18. Arizona	EDGE Josh Sweat, FSU
19. Indianapolis	OT Martinas Rankin, Miss. State
20. Minnesota	OT Orlando Brown, Oklahoma
21. Buffalo (from KC)	S Marcus Allen, Penn State
22. Carolina	DL Dre'Mont Jones, Ohio State
23. Denver	LB Jerome Baker, Ohio State
24. N.Y. Giants	LB Cameron Smith, USC
25. Cleveland (from HOU)	CB Denzel Ward, Ohio State
26. Atlanta	G Quenton Nelson, Notre Dame
27. Pittsburgh	CB Jaire Alexander, Louisville
28. Seattle	WR Calvin Ridley, Alabama
29. Oakland	LB Azeem Victor, Washington
30. Green Bay	C Mason Cole, Michigan
31. Dallas	S Armani Watts, Texas A&M
32. New England	LB Harold Landry, Boston College

Parting Shots 

5. The San Francisco 49ers landed two of my top five players by selecting Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster in the first round of the draft. The two could form quite a nucleus for the young 49ers defense moving forward. The team website interviewed the duo and asked what they knew about each other. Watching Foster's reaction when he learns that Thomas was a junior at Stanford is priceless.

4. Ready for a super weird story? There's a debate about how old Detroit Lions' defensive end Ezekiel Ansah is.

Dave Birkett, who covers the team for the Detroit Free Press, shared tweets that "several news stories" from Ghana—Ansah's home country—listed his age at 29 years old. The NFL lists him at 27, though.

This was also something that came up on Ansah when he was entering the 2013 NFL draft. Looking back at my notes on him, I never had a confirmed age for the BYU pass-rusher. Why is this relevant? Because Ansah is set to become a free agent and the Lions would like to lock up their best defensive player. But first they need to know how old he is.

3. The hiring of Rex Hogan and Morocco Brown by the Indianapolis Colts ruffled feathers on my Twitter mentions as fans questioned how two scouts from bad teams could really be that much of a difference-maker for the Colts. I have breaking news for you guys—good scouts work on bad teams and bad scouts work on good teams.

Michael Conroy/Associated Press/Associated Press/Associated Press

Chris Ballard was a scout for some bad Chicago Bears teams, but had his pick of general manager jobs the last three seasons. How many scouts and assistants have left New England only to fail away from Bill Belichick? 

There's a warped thinking in NFL circles that general manager candidates should only come from winning teams. Instead, owners and search committees should be focused on finding good candidates regardless of how well the team they work for plays when the reality is that a director of player personnel or college scouting director isn't making the big decisions that affect wins and losses. 

The best scout in the NFL right now might be working for Cleveland or the Jets, but we'd never know it because the league is so focused on hiring for names and not abilities.

2. The summer months are when I try to get caught up on reading. Over the years, I've built a list of solid books for aspiring scouts, coaches and football writers. Today seems like a great day to share a few favorites:

• Smart Football by Chris Brown
• The Blueprint by Christopher Price
• The Genius by David Harris
• The Education of a Coach by David Halberstam
• The Packer Way by Ron Wolf

1. If you haven't yet, this week is a great time to check out my podcast, Stick to Football. In Episode 4, co-host Connor Rogers and I give your our Quotes of the Week from NFL scouts, talk to musician Ryan Hurd about life as a songwriter, how he felt about the Tennessee Titans' draft and how good O.J. Howard would have looked in Nashville. We also give you our five favorites for Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year and finish off the show with some cold brews while taking your questions from Twitter.

Matt Miller covers the NFL and NFL draft for Bleacher Report.