Bleacher Report's MLB Experts Predict Each Major 2017 Award
Opening Day is upon us at last. Which means, of course, it's time to skip the whole 162-game grind and cut straight to the awards.
What's that? You actually want to watch the season play out? OK, fine.
Bleacher Report's MLB experts went ahead and made some awards predictions anyway, picking winners for MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year and Comeback Player of the Year in each league.
First, here's our panel:
- Danny Knobler, MLB Lead Writer
- Joel Reuter, National MLB Columnist
- Zachary D. Rymer, MLB Lead Writer
- Jacob Shafer, National MLB Columnist
Feel free to check back in six months and tweet us about how wrong—or possibly right!—we were.
AL Comeback Player of the Year
1 of 10
| Knobler | Reuter | Rymer | Shafer |
| Pablo Sandoval (BOS) | Yan Gomes (CLE) | Greg Bird (NYY) | Dallas Keuchel (HOU) |
Knobler: Pablo Sandoval (BOS)
The Panda needed a good spring, and he had one. He needed to come to camp and start changing the story of his Boston disappointment, and he has. Now he just needs to carry it into and through the season, and he will.
Reuter: Yan Gomes (CLE)
Michael Brantley will be the popular pick for AL comeback honors, but I'll go with his teammate, Gomes. Injuries have sapped his production the past two seasons, as he hit just .205/.240/.365 along the way, making it easy to forget he was a Silver Slugger winner in 2014. However, a .364 average and 1.068 OPS this spring provides plenty of reason for optimism.
Rymer: Greg Bird (NYY)
Bird made a heck of a first impression in 2015 when he debuted with an .871 OPS and 11 homers in 46 games. But when shoulder surgery sidelined him for the entire 2016 season, doubts crept in about how long it would take him to recapture that form. After a 1.582 OPS and seven homers this spring, it looks like he already has it again.
Shafer: Dallas Keuchel (HOU)
After winning AL Cy Young Award honors in 2015, Keuchel posted a 4.55 ERA last season before shutting it down with a shoulder injury. After a solid, seemingly healthy spring, he's due for a bounce-back with the AL West favorites.
NL Comeback Player of the Year
2 of 10
| Knobler | Reuter | Rymer | Shafer |
| Bryce Harper (WAS) | Kyle Schwarber (CHC) | Kyle Schwarber (CHC) | Kyle Schwarber (CHC) |
Knobler: Bryce Harper (WAS)
Years from now when we look back on Harper's career, we'll see the 2015 and 2016 seasons and quickly realize one of them was the outlier. After a spring in which he finally seemed healthy and happy, I'm guessing 2016 (the bad year) was the one that doesn't fit.
Reuter: Kyle Schwarber (CHC)
There's some question here whether Schwarber did enough pre-injury to be considered a bounce-back guy or if a big 2017 season would instead make him a breakout player. My gut says there's been enough hype surrounding the slugger that he'll get ample support for this award if he stays healthy and turns in the 30-plus homer season many expect.
Rymer: Kyle Schwarber (CHC)
In fairness, it's hard to top coming back from basically a season-long absence to rake in the World Series. But the 2017 season will be Schwarber's proper comeback and—spoiler alert—it's going to be awesome.
Shafer: Kyle Schwarber (CHC)
Schwarber may be a defensive question mark on the versatile Cubs, but manager Joe Maddon will find ways to consistently get his bat in the lineup. Once there, it will do what it did in the 2016 Fall Classic, which is to say it will rake.
AL Manager of the Year
3 of 10
| Knobler | Reuter | Rymer | Shafer |
| A.J. Hinch (HOU) | A.J. Hinch (HOU) | Scott Servais (SEA) | Joe Girardi (NYY) |
Knobler: A.J. Hinch (HOU)
He could have won in 2015, but Jeff Banister rightly got credit for taking the Rangers to the AL West title. Hinch is still the perfect manager for an Astros team on the rise, and that rise can carry him to Manager of the Year honors this time around.
Reuter: A.J. Hinch (HOU)
With heavy favorites in the AL East (Red Sox) and AL Central (Indians), the winner of what should be a tight battle in the AL West could be who takes home Manager of the Year honors. Hinch has a skilled roster at his disposal, but he'll have plenty of work to do sorting out a starting rotation that lacks a bona fide ace and a talented bullpen that shuffled through closers a year ago.
Rymer: Scott Servais (SEA)
The Seattle Mariners are going to win the AL West this year, thereby snapping the longest postseason drought in the majors. That should net Servais some hardware.
Shafer: Joe Girardi (NYY)
The New York Yankees are young and hungry, a new paradigm in the Bronx. They may not unseat the rival Boston Red Sox, but they'll make enough noise to get Girardi noticed.
NL Manager of the Year
4 of 10
| Knobler | Reuter | Rymer | Shafer |
| Terry Collins (NYM) | Bud Black (COL) | Bud Black (COL) | Dusty Baker (WAS) |
Knobler: Terry Collins (NYM)
Collins' Mets team has the talent to win, but the Mets also have enough issues to make the type of challenging season that earns a manager credit. Health concerns started up again right from spring training, with David Wright, Juan Lagares and Steven Matz all having issues. Collins will need to guide his team through the injury storms, but fortunately or unfortunately, he has plenty of experience doing that.
Reuter: Bud Black (COL)
The Rockies finally have a pitching staff that might be capable of backing up what will again be one of the league's most potent offenses. Yet there are still plenty of question marks, including a pair of rookies rounding out the starting rotation. If Black can navigate this group to the team's first winning record since 2010, he'll earn his second career Manager of the Year honor.
Rymer: Bud Black (COL)
The injuries the Colorado Rockies are already struggling with aren't going to help them keep up in the NL West. But they should be more competitive than usual and inspire optimism about their future in the process. Black will be a beneficiary.
Shafer: Dusty Baker (WAS)
If Harper returns to MVP form and the rest of the roster stays healthy, the Washington Nationals should repeat as NL East champs. Baker, in turn, could take home his fourth MOY Award and his first in 17 seasons.
AL Rookie of the Year
5 of 10
| Knobler | Reuter | Rymer | Shafer |
| Andrew Benintendi (BOS) | Andrew Benintendi (BOS) | Andrew Benintendi (BOS) | Andrew Benintendi (BOS) |
Knobler: Andrew Benintendi (BOS)
An obvious choice, but in this competition the obvious choice often wins (Corey Seager, Kris Bryant, Bryce Harper, Mike Trout). Opportunity matters too, and the Red Sox are ready to give him a full-time job (and maybe the second spot in the batting order).
Reuter: Andrew Benintendi (BOS)
Benintendi can flat-out rake. After he hit .295 with an .835 OPS last season in 118 plate appearances, it's easy to dream of a monster rookie season. An average over .300 and a ton of runs scored hitting out of the No. 2 spot in the Boston lineup with standout defense in left field to boot should be enough for him to run away with the award.
Rymer: Andrew Benintendi (BOS)
There's a loose consensus that Benintendi is the best prospect in baseball and seemingly zero doubt that he's ready to be a star right away. He has an elite hit tool, and he showed it off in the majors last year in 34 games. He can be even better in 2017.
Shafer: Andrew Benintendi (BOS)
There's not much left to be said, except that Benintendi has a great opportunity on a very good team. It's his award to lose, period.
NL Rookie of the Year
6 of 10
| Knobler | Reuter | Rymer | Shafer |
| Dansby Swanson (ATL) | Amed Rosario (NYM) | Dansby Swanson (ATL) | Dansby Swanson (ATL) |
Knobler: Dansby Swanson (ATL)
Another obvious one, but I like Swanson too much to choose someone else. He's an Atlanta kid who looked like a Rookie of the Year in his 38 games with the Braves last year. He looked so good, in fact, that I triple-checked that he still qualifies as a rookie in 2017. He does.
Reuter: Amed Rosario (NYM)
Rosario does not have a clear path to playing time—Asdrubal Cabrera is back for another year after a strong 2016 season—but he's the type of player who you clear a path for once he's ready. After a breakout offensive season in Double-A, the 21-year-old could make a Carlos Correa-/Francisco Lindor-type impact on arrival.
Rymer: Dansby Swanson (ATL)
Swanson is another elite prospect who already has a major league job in hand. And like Benintendi, he had a promising debut in the majors last year, hitting .302 with an .803 OPS in 38 games. More of that plus solid defense would make him one of the better shortstops in the National League, much less a leading ROY contender.
Shafer: Dansby Swanson (ATL)
The Braves are a club capable of surpassing expectations as they move into their shiny new stadium. Swanson, meanwhile, is a player capable of making a compelling face-of-the-franchise case.
AL Cy Young Award
7 of 10
| Knobler | Reuter | Rymer | Shafer |
| Chris Sale (BOS) | Yu Darvish (TEX) | Marcus Stroman (TOR) | Masahiro Tanaka (NYY) |
Knobler: Chris Sale (BOS)
The Red Sox didn't have the smoothest of springs, but their newest ace did. Last winter's trade came at the right time for the Red Sox, the right time for the White Sox and the right time for Sale. A good April could catapult him to a great season, and it's worth remembering he was 5-0 with a 1.66 ERA in April 2016.
Reuter: Yu Darvish (TEX)
Darvish is another full year removed from Tommy John surgery, and he's pitching for a big contract next offseason, so he'll be plenty motivated. He struck out 132 batters in 100.1 innings last season, and he looks poised for a career year atop the rotation of a Texas Rangers team that desperately needs him to pitch like an ace.
Rymer: Marcus Stroman (TOR)
Stroman is a dude with great stuff and great command who pitched better in 2016 than his 4.37 ERA indicates. He was especially good down the stretch, riding a handful of adjustments to a 3.42 ERA after July. He'll absolutely be Cy Young material if he builds on that.
Shafer: Masahiro Tanaka (NYY)
Tanaka dominated the Grapefruit League but wobbled on Opening Day. Neither means much. Here's what does: He's coming off his best season on American soil and is being asked to shoulder the starting-pitching load for an exciting young Yankees team. It says here he rises to the occasion.
NL Cy Young Award
8 of 10
| Knobler | Reuter | Rymer | Shafer |
| Clayton Kershaw (LAD) | Clayton Kershaw (LAD) | Clayton Kershaw (LAD) | Noah Syndergaard (NYM) |
Knobler: Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
He didn't pitch for two months last year and still got two first-place votes. Imagine what he can do with a full season. Or don't imagine. Just look at the results. In Kershaw's last five full seasons, he has three Cy Youngs, a second-place finish and a third-place finish. I'll take my chances with him if he's healthy, and he's been healthy this spring.
Reuter: Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
As long as the back problems don't flare up again, Kershaw is still the best pitcher in the game. The 29-year-old was on his way to a career year last season with a 1.69 ERA and 172-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and he returned strong in October. It's tough to bet against the three-time winner.
Rymer: Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
OK, so the injury problems Kershaw has run into in recent seasons are slightly concerning. But he's remained baseball's best pitcher when he's been healthy and was never better than in 2016. For a guy to have 161 more strikeouts than walks in just 149 innings is something else. The next step from there should be fun.
Shafer: Noah Syndergaard (NYM)
Going against Kershaw is like resisting the sunrise. I'll be the contrarian, though, and pick a bulked-up, bolt-throwing Syndergaard to unseat the Dodgers ace.
AL MVP
9 of 10
| Knobler | Reuter | Rymer | Shafer |
| Carlos Correa (HOU) | Mookie Betts (BOS) | Mike Trout (LAA) | Mookie Betts (BOS) |
Knobler: Carlos Correa (HOU)
Correa didn't have a bad first full year in the big leagues in 2016, but even a slight slip dropped him behind Francisco Lindor and Corey Seager (and maybe even others) in the young shortstops discussion. Now he's coming off an outstanding performance for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic. His team has a real chance to return to the postseason, and Correa can be the guy who gets the Astros there. It's always tough to pick against Mike Trout, but I'm doing it.
Reuter: Mookie Betts (BOS)
Betts had a strong case for MVP honors last season, and the Red Sox will be leaning even more heavily on their five-tool star now that David Ortiz rode off into the sunset. He's a batting title contender, a 30/30 threat and a Gold Glove defender in right field. Trout is still the best player in the game, but Betts isn't far behind, and he'll hoist the AL hardware in 2017.
Rymer: Mike Trout (LAA)
He is literally Mike Trout, otherwise known as the dude on track to be the greatest baseball player ever. That trajectory has already netted him two MVPs and should arguably have earned him as many as five. Beyond that, the Los Angeles Angels figure to be solid this year.
Shafer: Mookie Betts (BOS)
Even if the notoriously fickle defensive metrics don't love him quite as much this season, Betts will still be one of the game's most complete players on a likely postseason contender. Sure, Trout is the safe pick, but voters sometimes like to mix it up, especially when it's close.
NL MVP
10 of 10
| Knobler | Reuter | Rymer | Shafer |
| Anthony Rizzo (CHC) | Kris Bryant (CHC) | Bryce Harper (WAS) | Nolan Arenado (COL) |
Knobler: Anthony Rizzo (CHC)
As colleague Scott Miller wrote in November, Kris Bryant could easily end up winning multiple MVPs. Well, there was a time last season when it looked like his biggest challenger could be his teammate, Rizzo. Rizzo has finished fourth in MVP voting two straight years. This could be the year his numbers push him to the top.
Reuter: Kris Bryant (CHC)
Bryant has quickly become the face of what should be a perennial contender on the North Side, and at 25 years old, it's reasonable to think he could still get better. He has the raw power and the supporting cast to improve on last year's 39 home runs and 102 RBI, and those counting numbers still carry significant weight in the balloting.
Rymer: Bryce Harper (WAS)
Harper fulfilled his destiny as the chosen one when he won the National League MVP in 2015. As for last year...well, last year was several different shades of weird. But that's in the past now, and Harper's red-hot spring points toward re-realizing his upside in 2017.
Shafer: Nolan Arenado (COL)
It's tough sledding come awards season for any hitter who stages his home games at Coors Field. But if the Rockies hang around the playoff race and Arenado does his usual thing with the bat and glove, he could become the first Colorado player to win MVP honors since Larry Walker in 1997. Yes, that was 20 years ago. And yes, you're old.
All statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted.
