Chicago Cubs: Final Predictions for Each Key Spring Position Battle
As one would expect from a defending World Series champion, the Chicago Cubs arrived in spring training with few questions to answer.
With no major injuries suffered, not a whole lot has changed since then. Out of 25 total roster spots, it still looks like only three are up for grabs.
With Opening Day of the 2017 season now less than two weeks away, the goal here is to predict which players are going to win each of those three spots. As a bonus, the question of who'll be batting leadoff for the Cubs will also be answered.
No. 5 Starter: Brett Anderson
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Chicago's rotation is going to be led by Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and John Lackey. After them, it'll be either Brett Anderson or Mike Montgomery.
Cubs skipper Joe Maddon seems to know which way he's leaning.
"If you look at the makeup of the player, the pitchers themselves, it's pretty obvious that the one guy is more suited to start and the other guy is more of a hybrid, absolutely," Maddon said Monday, per Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago.
With 115 career starts out of 127 total appearances, Anderson is the former. With only 23 starts in 65 career appearances, Montgomery is the latter.
Montgomery has actually had the better spring with a 4.50 ERA and 13-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 10 innings. But Anderson hasn't been as bad as his 7.15 ERA indicates. Although he's allowed 18 hits in 11.1 innings, he's struck out nine, walked two, and has yet to really be lit up in any of his five outings.
Anderson is also a good fit for the Cubs' defense. He pitches to contact and specializes in inducing ground balls with a career 58.2 GB%. Health permitting—knock wood—he ought to do well in front of a defense that was the best at turning batted balls into outs in 2016.
Final Bench Spot: Matt Szczur
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The Cubs have a roster loaded with versatile players, so there's no need for them to carry a deep bench.
Indications have been that they won't, which has forced outfielder Matt Szczur and infielder Tommy La Stella into a battle for the final spot on a four-man bench. The former is running away with the battle on offense this spring, posting a 1.065 OPS that dwarfs La Stella's .659 OPS.
"I'm just trying to play the best I can," Szczur told Carrie Muskat of MLB.com. "For me, Game 7, you could say it's like that. But I'm trying to have fun."
Szczur's other advantage is that he has no minor league options left, so he can't be sent to the minors without first passing through waivers.
Arguably La Stella's best hope is that the Cubs would prefer to have a second reserve infielder to pair with Javier Baez rather than a second reserve outfielder to pair with Albert Almora Jr. The Cubs could also be gun shy about sending La Stella down after what happened last time.
Nonetheless, opting for Szczur just makes more sense. Putting him on the roster is more convenient, and he's earned it to boot.
Final Bullpen Spot: Brian Duensing
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If Montgomery doesn't get the fifth spot in the Cubs' rotation, he'll join Wade Davis, Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr., Koji Uehara and Justin Grimm in the bullpen.
The final spot would be best served going to a traditional left-handed reliever. The Cubs have a number of candidates for the job in camp, but the de facto favorite appears to be veteran lefty Brian Duensing.
"I just want to be reliable," he said, per Tony Andracki of CSN Chicago. "I don't want Joe or [Cubs pitching coach Chris Bosio] questioning whether or not I can get the job done. I want to be accountable and reliable and help these guys repeat again."
Although Duensing has an 8.44 ERA this spring, he's been solid in four of his five outings. He did have back pain after his most recent outing, but Muskat's last report was that he was throwing pain-free.
The guy with the best chance of stealing the spot from Duensing is Caleb Smith, a Rule 5 pick who's struck out six and walked one in six innings this spring.
But even it means having to send Smith back where he came from, it's easier to imagine the Cubs leaning toward Duensing's 368 games of major league experience than a few good spring outings from Smith.
Leadoff Hitter: Kyle Schwarber
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This isn't a traditional position battle, but it does concern one of the spring's most intriguing storylines: Who's going to bat leadoff for the Cubs?
That was Dexter Fowler's job, but he's gone now. Maddon came up with a surprising favorite to fill his shoes back in January: Kyle Schwarber.
"I do like Schwarber leading off," Maddon said, per ESPN's Jesse Rogers. "I do like it."
Because the big-bodied slugger doesn't resemble a typical leadoff man, perhaps Schwarber could have hit himself out of the job with a slow spring. In that case, Maddon might have opted for Ben Zobrist or even Jason Heyward if he showed progress after a rough 2016.
Nope. Schwarber has a solid .349 OBP with a .964 OPS. Zobrist is at .314 with a .681 OPS. Heyward is at .205 with a .455 OPS.
It looks like it will indeed be Schwarber's job. There's an argument—ahem—that putting his OBP prowess up top isn't worth wasting his power on so many bases-empty situations. But Maddon and the Cubs don't seem to have any trepidation about it whatsoever.
So, let the experiment begin.
Spring stats courtesy of MLB.com. Other data courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
