NFL MVP 2017: Award Candidates, Odds and Predictions

In case you weren't aware, Super Bowl LI is this Sunday. It's the biggest event of the NFL season, but it isn't the only notable event of the weekend. The sixth edition of the NFL Honors will take place on Saturday and a number of league awards will be handed out.

The biggest award of the night, of course, is NFL MVP. The award recognizes the player believed to have been the most valuable to his team during the regular season (obviously). Recent winners include Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson.

Today, we're going to take an in-depth look at the top contenders for this year's MVP award and the latest odds—courtesy of OddsShark.com. We'll also provide our reasons for and against some of the top contenders.

NFL Honors

When: Saturday, Feb. 4, during NFL Honors

Where: Wortham Theater Center, Houston

Time: 8 p.m. ET

National TV: Fox

Live Stream: Fox Sports Go

MVP Odds

Player	Odds
Matt Ryan, QB, ATL	1-10
Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB	5-1
Tom Brady, QB, NE	9-1
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL	33-1
Derek Carr, QB, OAK	50-1
Dak Prescott, QB, DAL	50-1
Le'Veon Bell, RB, PIT	100-1

1. Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

Why He Could Win

In addition to leading the Atlanta Falcons to a first-round playoff bye and now to the Super Bowl, Ryan has played an impressively efficient brand of football this season. During the regular season alone, he passed for 4,944 yards and 38 touchdowns with just seven interceptions. He also completed 69.9 percent of his passes and posted a quarterback rating of 117.1.

Pro Football Focus rated Ryan second overall among all quarterbacks for the regular season.

Ryan delivered some clutch performances too. He helped edge out the Denver Broncos and their vaunted defense in Week 5 and then delivered a critical one-point win over the Green Bay Packers in a shootout three weeks later.

He is the heavy favorite to win MVP, and even some fellow signal-callers agree with the idea.

"I think Matt Ryan, it's been his year," Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson said on NFL Network's Total Access, per Jeremy Bergman of NFL.com. "In my opinion, he's probably the MVP, in my opinion, just because of the success that he's had on the football field and how he's overcome from the year before."

Right now, it's hard to argue with the perception that Ryan has been the league's best quarterback this season. He's our pick for the award.

Why He Might Not

As well as Ryan has played, it's difficult not to give some of the credit to the weapons around Ryan. The Falcons have arguably the league's best receiving corps with guys like Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel leading the group.

It also helps that Ryan has talented pass-catching backs like Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman.

Even though Jones missed a couple games due to injury, some folks are going to argue that Ryan's success is a product of the players around him and not the other way around. Their argument will likely be that there are some other quarterbacks who would have just as much in his situation.

2. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Why He Could Win

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers had quite an impressive statistical season. He led the league with 40 touchdown passes (to just seven interceptions) and he passed for 4,428 yards with a passer rating of 104.2.

Pro Football Focus rated him fourth overall for the regular season.

In addition to Rodgers' statistical success is the fact that he essentially carried the Packers into the playoffs on his throwing shoulder. The Packers were plagued with injuries and even resorted to utilizing wideout Ty Montgomery as the team's running back. Yet, Rodgers was able to deliver a six-game winning streak to end the season and push Green Bay into the playoffs.

Rodgers was often forced to win shootouts thanks to a defense rated dead last in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus. Over the latter part of the season, he was virtually unstoppable.

Why He Might Not

Rodgers did a lot of great things during the 2016 season, but his MVP candidacy is largely defined by his prediction that Green Bay would "run the table" to make the playoffs—and his ability to deliver on that promise.

The problem is that Rodgers was also part of the reason why the Packers fell to a 4-6 record before that infamous prediction. All seven of his interceptions came within the first 10 games of the season, and at times, Rodgers seemed to be on a completely different page from the rest of his offense.

The player we see now, as Rust Cohle might put it, is like somebody’s memory of a great quarterback — and that memory is fading," Danny Kelly of TheRinger.com wrote back in September.

While Rodgers since proved that he was indeed a great quarterback, the memory of those early-season struggles likely remains.

3. Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

Why He Could Win

Patriots quarterback Tom Brady also had one impressive season. Though he only played in 12 games, he still passed for 3,554 yards with 28 touchdowns and just two interceptions. In doing so, he finished the year with a new NFL record.

For the regular season, Brady was rated first overall among all quarterbacks by Pro Football Focus.

While Brady clearly has some good pass-catchers at his disposal, it's easy to suggest that they benefit more from him than he benefits from the supporting cast. He has helped make stars out of guys like Chris Hogan and Dion Lewis.

Brady's top receiver, Julian Edelman, is a converted college quarterback. While he has developed into a very good receiver, he isn't quite on the level of a Julio Jones or a Jordy Nelson. Supporters of Brady are likely to argue that he has done more with less than either Rodgers or Ryan.

Why He Might Not

Those who aren't supporters of Brady are going to point to his four-game suspension as a reason why he shouldn't win the MVP. Whether or not you agree with his suspension in the first place, the fact Brady only participated in three-quarters of the season can be seen as a negative.

It isn't going to help that the Patriots went 3-1 without Brady either.

In addition, folks are going to point to the fact that the Patriots fielded the league's top defense this season. No team allowed fewer than the 15.6 points per game allowed by New England. While Brady certainly did his part in delivering 11 victories this season, he wasn't often asked to do a whole lot to deliver them.