Raiders vs. Texans: Odds, Stat Predictions for 2017 AFC Wild Card Game

The NFL postseason is set to get underway Saturday afternoon when the Oakland Raiders travel to NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans. This game has the makings of an exciting offense vs. defense matchup with a few added twists.

Because of injuries at the quarterback position, both teams are going into this game with players who aren't necessarily first choices under center. The Texans have been forced to turn back to Brock Osweiler because of a concussion suffered by Tom Savage in Week 17. The Raiders, meanwhile, have seen both Derek Carr and Matt McGloin fall to injuries over the past two weeks.

Oakland will now rely on rookie quarterback Connor Cook, a former Michigan State standout and fourth-round pick.

This game, of course, isn't going to be just about the quarterbacks. Houston's defense, which allows a league-leading 301.3 yards per game, will look to carry the Texans. The Raiders have the luxury of leaning on a ground attack that ranks sixth in the NFL with an average of 120.1 yards per game.

The quarterback who makes the fewest mistakes might be the one who wins this game, but plenty of other factors will be involved.

We're going to take an in-depth look at the game, along with the current odds from OddsShark. We'll also project statistics for key players on both teams. Our projections are based on factors like past performances, projected roles and matchups.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans

What: AFC Wild Card Game

Where: NRG Stadium, Houston

When: Saturday at 4:35 p.m. ET

National TV: ESPN

Line: HOU -3

Player Projections

Position	Player	Team	Proj. Stats
QB	Connor Cook	OAK	210 YDS, TD, 2 INT
QB	Brock Osweiler	HOU	285 YDS, TD, INT
RB	Latavius Murray	OAK	65 YDS, 3 REC, 31 REC YDS, TD
RB	DeAndre Washington	OAK	45 YDS, 1 REC, 10 REC YDS
RB	Lamar Miller	HOU	110 YDS, 3 REC, 35 REC YDS, 2 TD
WR	Amari Cooper	OAK	5 REC, 76 YDS
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	HOU	7 REC, 110 YDS, TD
WR	Michael Crabtree	OAK	4 REC, 49 YDS
WR	Seth Roberts	OAK	3 REC, 31 YDS
WR	Will Fuller	HOU	3 REC, 36 YDS
TE	Clive Walford	OAK	2 REC, 20 YDS, TD
TE	C.J. Fiedorowicz	HOU	4 REC, 47 YDS
DEF	Raiders Defense	OAK	5 Sacks, INT, FF
DEF	Texans Defense	HOU	4 Sacks, 2 INT, FF, DEF TD

Players to Watch

Brock Osweiler, QB, Texans

A lot of eyes are obviously going to be on Cook this weekend. He's making his first NFL start in the postseason and against a Texans defense that is rated eighth overall.

However, this game actually might hinge more on the play of Osweiler.

Cook is a rookie. The Raiders can't be sure of what to expect from him, but they're likely to try protecting him with easy throws and a strong rushing attack. Osweiler, on the other hand, was benched earlier this season due to poor performance.

To understand just how bad Osweiler was, consider that Pro Football Focus rated 71 quarterbacks in the regular season and he came in dead last.

Key mistakes have been a big problem for Osweiler. He has 16 interceptions and five fumbles (one lost) to go with just 15 passing touchdowns. It was these types of mistakes that got him benched and could cost the Texans the game.

Keep in mind that while Oakland's defense isn't a top-tier unit overall—the Raiders are ranked 26th with 375.1 yards per game allowed—it does boast a quality pass rush. Pro Football Focus rated Oakland sixth in pass rush for the season.

Osweiler suggested his time on the bench has allowed him to learn from his mistakes.

“When you're able to step back and watch things, you're going to learn different things,” Osweiler said, per Lindsay H. Jones of USA Today.

If Osweiler hasn't learned how to better read the defense and take care of the football, the Texans could be in trouble.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans

Another thing Osweiler might want to do is figure out how to get the football to playmaking wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins.

Hopkins can be a dominant receiver when he has the opportunity. Yet he finished this season with only 78 receptions and 954 yards. Part of the problem seemed to be that Osweiler wasn't getting him the football often enough. Of Hopkins' 78 receptions, 15 came in games that also involved Savage.

However, Osweiler entered the season finale in a relief effort and found Hopkins often. This is worth noting, though, because Hopkins' potential dominance might be one of the things Osweiler figured out while on the sideline.

Head coach Bill O'Brien spoke about Hopkins' last performance, per Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle:

"

He did a good job of reading the coverage and getting him the ball. Some of those were catch-and run- type plays. Hopkins did a nice job in the open field. Once you get him the ball he's a very explosive player. So, it was good on both ends: good catches, good routes, good reads, good throws. I thought both guys executed well.

"

The Texans should depend on Hopkins against an Oakland secondary that is rated 20th in pass coverage. The flip side is that if the Raiders can figure out how to shut Hopkins down, it could make life a lot more difficult for Osweiler.

Latavius Murray, RB, Raiders

Donald Miralle/Getty Images

We mentioned earlier that the Raiders are likely to try to protect Cook with a strong running game. Oakland has the pieces needed to lean on the ground game, and this is a tactic the team has used to batter quality defenses before.

During the Raiders' 10-point win over the Denver Broncos in Week 9, Oakland rushed for more than 200 yards as a team. If the Raiders are going to find similar success against the Texans, though, they'll need to get more out of running back Latavius Murray.

Murray has had some stellar games this season. He rushed for 114 yards in that game against Denver and for 103 yards against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4. Over the final two weeks, though, Murray has carried the ball just 20 times for 51 yards. He saw just five carries in the finale.

“We didn’t run it enough,” Raiders coach Jack Del Rio said after the Week 17 loss to Denver, per Jimmy Durkin of the Bay Area News Group. “I mean, Latavius ends up with five carries. How does that happen? It wasn’t a great job of executing by the Oakland Raiders. That’s what it is."

The Raiders do have other options in the backfield such as DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard. However, getting Murray involved early and often should be a point of emphasis in this game.

The Raiders offensive line is rated fifth in run blocking. They need to take advantage of those strengths against the Texans. 

Ratings courtesy of Pro Football Focus.