NFL Wild Card Weekend 2017: Bracket Predictions for Postseason's Opening Round
Not every Wild Card Weekend contestant represents the cream of the NFL crop.
Three teams (Detroit Lions, Houston Texans and Miami Dolphins) advanced to the postseason despite depositing negative point differentials. This does not include the Oakland Raiders, who lost the AFC West and a first-round bye following Week 17's 24-6 loss without Derek Carr.
Meanwhile, three of last year's conference championship participants missed the cut altogether. The Denver Broncos would probably be favored to beat three of the four AFC squads that are competing during the opening round.
This doesn't mean the next Super Bowl champion is sitting out the Wild Card Round, though. Half of the teams have combined to secure six of the last 11 titles, and all four remain threats to again run the table.
With 2016's final page written, let's examine the full first-round schedule and highlight a matchup from each conference.
| Sat., 1/7 | AFC | No. 5 Oakland Raiders | No. 4 Houston Texans | 4:35 p.m. | ESPN/ABC | 16-13 HOU |
| Sat., 1/7 | NFC | No. 6 Detroit Lions | No. 3 Seattle Seahawks | 8:15 p.m. | NBC | 26-13 SEA |
| Sun., 1/8 | AFC | No. 6 Miami Dolphins | No. 3 Pittsburgh Steelers | 1:05 p.m. | CBS | 27-17 PIT |
| Sun., 1/8 | NFC | No. 5 New York Giants | No. 4 Green Bay Packers | 4:40 p.m. | Fox | 24-20 GB |
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Miami Dolphins defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers during the regular season, but they'll still enter Wild Card Weekend as road underdogs.
In Week 6's 30-15 triumph, Miami kept Pittsburgh's stars in check. Ben Roethlisberger registered 189 passing yards—only 39 to Antonio Brown—and threw two interceptions. Given his season average of 157 yards from scrimmage, Le'Veon Bell's 108 total yards (53 rushing, 55 receiving) represented a down day.
That victory occurred in Florida. While the Steelers' stacked offense occasionally stumbles on the road, Roethlisberger has roasted the competition at Heinz Field:
| GP | 6 | 8 |
| CMP % | 70.8 | 59.4 |
| Pass YDS | 1,915 | 1,904 |
| YPA | 8.47 | 6.73 |
| TD | 20 | 9 |
| INT | 5 | 8 |
| QBR | 116.7 | 78.4 |
Miami's momentum crashed with a 35-14 Week 17 loss to the New England Patriots, their first playoff-bound opponent since upending Pittsburgh. The 10-6 squad went 1-5 against adversaries with eight or more victories this year.
That lone win came at Pittsburgh's expense, so perhaps Miami has the AFC North champion's number. But probably not.
Back in October, Jay Ajayi delivered the first of his three 200-yard rushing outings of 2016. He posted his other two outbursts against the Buffalo Bills, who entered Week 17 last in Football Outsiders' defensive-adjusted value above average (DVOA) against the run. The Steelers, meanwhile, ranked No. 9 before allowing 231 rushing yards to the Cleveland Browns in a meaningless Week 17 bout.
Of course, the Dolphins had Ryan Tannehill under center in Week 6, but the starting quarterback hasn't played since spraining his ACL and MCL three weeks ago, putting his playoff status in doubt.
According to the Sun Sentinel's Chris Perkins, the Dolphins have not ruled out his return, but the 28-year-old is still using a walking boot. Head coach Adam Gase said the team will take no chances by rushing Tannehill back.
"When I feel comfortable with what the doctors are telling me that we're not going to have any kind of injury that could prevent him from hurting his career or hurting his chances to play next year," Gase said. "So we're going to be very, very smart."
Matt Moore has held his own over his first three starts since 2011, averaging 8.2 yards per attempt with eight passing touchdowns. Tannehill's prognosis won't make or break the Dolphins' chances, but a subpar defense won't shut down Roethlisberger and Co. on the road.
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers
Other teams that were already strapped into a playoff seed took Week 17 easy, but the New York Giants played their regulars for four quarters. They eliminated Washington with a familiar blueprint, limiting their NFC East foe to 10 points.
As Katie Sharp of The MMQB noted, the Giants' NFC-best scoring defense hasn't halted offenses this well since Michael Strahan was in his prime:
Giants fans can't be thrilled about watching Eli Manning amass just 180 passing yards and no touchdowns. Yet the flailing offense received a boost from rookie Paul Perkins, who posted a career-high 102 rushing yards against the No. 25-ranked rushing defense entering the final weekend.
New York had not received a 100-yard rushing performance all season.
As Manning said after the game, per the team's official Twitter account, a capable running attack would invigorate Big Blue's latest postseason push:
During their 23-16 loss to the Green Bay Packers in Week 5, the Giants tallied just 43 yards on the ground. Even during Aaron Rodgers' early-season slump, they couldn't muster enough points to keep up.
Rodgers has turned a career valley into an MVP-caliber campaign by throwing 18 touchdowns and no picks in Green Bay's last seven games. Averaging 30.8 points over their six-game winning streak, the Packers have registered at least 20 in each of their last 10 contests.
The Giants haven't hit 20 points since Week 12's 27-13 win over the 1-15 Cleveland Browns. As Rodgers rolled, Manning garnered six touchdowns, six interceptions and 6.08 yards per pass attempt during the last five games, three of which the defense saved.
If their plan is to limit the Packers to less than 20 points, the Giants are in trouble. Continuing to utilize Perkins over the ineffective veteran Rashad Jennings will help, but it's on Manning to exploit a shaky, banged-up secondary.
The 35-year-old quarterback has previously guided the Giants to two playoff victories at Lambeau Field. Both times, they avenged a regular-season loss at the Packers' hands. He's capable of continuing the trend, but the red-hot Packers will produce enough points to inflict payback.
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