New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Atlanta Falcons (10-5) would love nothing more than a week off in the playoffs and a home game in the divisional round. The NFC South champion Falcons can make that goal a reality on Sunday in their regular-season finale when they host the New Orleans Saints (7-8) as solid home favorites.

Point spread: The Falcons opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 56 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 35.1-16.6 Falcons (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Saints have played much better in their last two games, almost relishing the role of spoilers in crushing the playoff chances of their opponents during that stretch.

They obviously have the offense to keep pace with any team in the NFL thanks to league passing leader Drew Brees, who will top 5,000 yards for the fourth time in six years and fifth time overall. His numbers alone will put him in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and the Super Bowl title definitely helps. Brees always gives New Orleans a shot to cover.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta needs a win here, plain and simple. The Falcons may already be in the postseason, but they want every advantage possible and are fortunate to be playing this game at home in Week 17. They blew out New Orleans 45-32 in the first meeting on the road back in Week 3, which opened some eyes and made skeptics believe in them as legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan has a much more balanced team around him than Brees, and the Saints are just 1-3 against the spread in the past four road meetings, according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

Smart pick

The Falcons have really turned things around this year after getting off to such a great start last season at 5-0 before collapsing down the stretch. Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn deserves a ton of credit for learning from his mistakes and righting the ship with a team that possesses lots of talent.

Look for Quinn's bunch to stay hot here and win its fourth in a row both straight up and ATS to seize the No. 2 seed in the NFC.

Betting trends

The Saints are 1-3 ATS in their last four games on the road against the Falcons.

The total has gone under in six of the Saints' last seven games on the road against the Falcons.

The Saints are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against their division.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.