Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Carolina Panthers owned six straight wins in the series with Tampa Bay coming into this season, going 5-1 against the spread in the process, but the Buccaneers took the first meeting between the teams back in October. Tampa Bay, still harboring the slimmest of playoff hopes, shoots to make it two in a row over the Panthers on Sunday.

Point spread: The Buccaneers opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 47.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, per OddsShark computer: 30.2-16.4 Buccaneers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

Carolina had won two games in a row, including an upset of the Washington Redskins last Monday night, but lost on the short week last Saturday to the Atlanta Falcons 33-16. The Panthers fell down to the Falcons 20-3 in the second quarter, pulled within striking distance at 23-13 but could get no closer, ending their three-season reign as NFC South champions.

Two weeks ago, Carolina beat the Redskins 26-15, outgaining Washington 438-335 and winning the ground battle 148-29. The Panthers have outrushed seven of their last 10 opponents.

Carolina outgained Tampa Bay in that first meeting this season 414-315, even though quarterback Cam Newton sat out with a head injury. But the Panthers also turned the ball over four times that night, once from the Bucs' 1-yard line at a key moment in the fourth quarter.

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

Tampa Bay had won five games in a row, playing itself into playoff contention, but has now lost two tough ones back-to-back against the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints.

Two weeks ago, the Bucs led the NFC's best team on its home turf through three quarters 20-17, but they let the Cowboys score the final nine points of the game in a 26-20 defeat. Last week, Tampa Bay only trailed the Saints at the Superdome by a touchdown heading into the fourth quarter but could get no closer in a 31-24 loss.

Three weeks ago, the Buccaneers put on an excellent defensive performance, holding New Orleans to less than 300 yards of offense and Drew Brees without a touchdown pass in a 16-11 victory.

At 8-7 on the season, Tampa Bay isn't dead yet in the NFC wild-card race, and while realistically it would take a miracle, it can't happen unless the Bucs win this game.

Smart pick

Both teams will play to win, so motivation shouldn't be a factor. Carolina outplayed Tampa Bay earlier this year and just blew the game with a terrible turnover. And that was without Newton. Now the Panthers are getting almost a touchdown on the betting line for another game that could easily be decided by a field goal. The smart money here plays the Panthers plus the points.

Betting trends

The Panthers are 6-1 straight up and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games at home after covering in their most recent home game.

The Panthers are 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games against their division.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.