NFL Picks Week 17: Reviewing Expert Predictions, Vegas Odds and Final Schedule
What better way to ring in the New Year than with a full day of NFL action?
All 32 teams are in play Sunday; it's a wall-to-wall slate that is sure to satiate any football fan who is looking to park on the couch and rest up after celebrating the changing of the calendar the day before.
While the playoff picture is nearly settled in terms of participants— just two teams outside the current crop of playoff teams are capable of forcing their way into the frame—plenty of reshuffling can take place on the final day.
The varying levels of meaning for each game can make predicting outcomes a difficult proposition. Two teams are in must-win situations if they want their season to continue. Top-tier squads might rest key players at the start of the game or after building up a sizable advantage, allowing for minor upsets or a late-game cover by the opposition.
Some games are essentially meaningless, as contests between bottom-dwelling also-rans could swing on plays made by guys who are desperate to impress for next season. This last group of games might also feature coaches who are vying to keep their jobs.
It's the kind of murky week where you might call a psychic hotline for advice or perhaps dust off some tarot cards.
Or you might check out what the experts from around the web have to say about the season's final slate.
Here are the Week 17 schedule, odds and expert predictions to wrap up the regular season:
| 1 p.m. | Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-5) | 41 | Vikings | Vikings | Vikings | Bears | Vikings 77% |
| 1 p.m. | Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3) | 40 | Texans | Texans | Titans | Titans | Texans 53% |
| 1 p.m. | Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) | 46.5 | Panthers | Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Buccaneers 53% |
| 1 p.m. | Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) | 43 | Eagles | Cowboys | Eagles | Eagles | Cowboys 66% |
| 1 p.m. | Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at New York Jets | 42 | Jets | Bills | Bills | Jets | Bills 58% |
| 1 p.m. | New England Patriots (-9.5) at Miami Dolphins | 44.5 | Dolphins | Patriots | Patriots | Patriots | Patriots 65% |
| 1 p.m. | Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-1) | 41.5 | Ravens | Ravens | Bengals | Ravens | Bengals 58% |
| 1 p.m. | Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) | 43.5 | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers 93% |
| 1 p.m. | Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) | 47 | Jaguars | Colts | Colts | Colts | Colts 81% |
| 4:25 p.m. | New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7) | 45 | Giants | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins 59% |
| 4:25 p.m. | New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-7) | 56.5 | Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | Falcons 76% |
| 4:25 p.m. | Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) at San Francisco 49ers | 43 | Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks 82% |
| 4:25 p.m. | Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at San Diego Chargers | 45 | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs 75% |
| 4:25 p.m. | Arizona Cardinals (-6) at Los Angeles Rams | 40.5 | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals 63% |
| 4:25 p.m. | Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-1) | 40.5 | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos 53% |
| 8:30 p.m. | Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Detroit Lions | 49.5 | Lions | Packers | Packers | Packers | Lions 51% |
The Washington Redskins and Tampa Bay Buccaneers both need victories and quite a bit of help if either of them is to make the postseason. Washington is on the road against the New York Giants, who are locked into the NFC's fifth seed no matter what happens.
Since the Giants can't improve or worsen their position in Week 17, they have the luxury of resting key players, potentially opening the door for a Washington victory. However, the Redskins can't count on the Giants coasting into the postseason.
"Yes. Everyone is going to play Sunday,” running back Rashad Jennings said, per ESPN.com's Jordan Raanan.
Washington beat New York 29-27 way back in Week 3, thanks to a strong effort from Kirk Cousins and five field goals. A similar outcome is on the table for Sunday, especially if the Giants start to pull key players. All it takes is a deceptively comfortable lead or one key player to get hurt to spook coach Ben McAdoo into resting his starters.
On paper, the Bucs appear to have an easier matchup against the Carolina Panthers. The defending NFC champs are out of the playoff hunt with a 6-9 record and lost to the Atlanta Falcons 33-16 in Week 16.
Tampa Bay will be without running back Doug Martin, who was suspended for four games for failing the league's drug policy, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. According to a statement on Buccaneers.com, Martin will enter a drug treatment facility, saying he will "receive the help I truly need."
Martin has struggled this season, averaging 2.9 yards per carry. The Bucs have played well despite his lack of production thanks to Jameis Winston's arm and an excellent defense. Jacquizz Rodgers will have to carry the load in the Tampa Bay backfield. He rushed for 63 yards and a touchdown in Week 16 against the Saints and has topped the century mark twice this season.
Tampa Bay will have to clamp down hard on Cam Newton and the Panthers to pull off a win Sunday, but it's no sure thing with a key player suspended and the team coming off two straight losses.
The Redskins might be the safer bet to win, as the Panthers are playing for pride and the Bucs need all kinds of ridiculous help—a nigh-impossible scenario that includes a San Francisco 49ers win over the Seattle Seahawks, among other considerations—to make the playoffs.
Just a couple of months ago, the Green Bay Packers' season appeared to be a lost cause. The team was 4-6, with a paper-thin secondary, little to no running game and a visibly frustrated Aaron Rodgers. Since then, the Packers have ripped off five straight wins and are on the verge of wresting the NFC North crown from the Detroit Lions.
The Packers and Lions play Sunday night. For both teams to make the playoffs, they need Washington to lose to the Giants. (Green Bay and Detroit could tie and both make the postseason even if Washington wins, but let's not spend too much time peeking into Pandora's box.)
Green Bay may be on the road, but it is the favorite in this contest. The Packers appear to have fixed the running game by converting wideout Ty Montgomery to a full-time role in the backfield. He had a tough time against the Minnesota Vikings defense in Week 16 but ran for 162 yards the previous week against the hapless Chicago Bears and is averaging 5.9 yards per carry on the season.
Montgomery brings balance to a potent Packers attack that has seen Rodgers go supernova as of late. He has thrown for 11 touchdowns and 1,367 yards without an interception over the five-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Lions have stumbled to the finish line, losing their last two games after cobbling together a fine winning streak of their own.
The ascendant Packers also have a preparation advantage. They played Saturday in Week 16, while the Lions were on the road in a Monday night loss to the Dallas Cowboys. The Packers are the pick to win the game, but such a high-stakes contest between two strong teams should be a close one, and the Lions are a good bet to cover the 3.5-point spread.
Another tricky matchup to pick is the one between the Oakland Raiders and Denver Broncos. The Raiders will be without quarterback Derek Carr (28 touchdowns, six interceptions), who has been the key driving force in their success but needed surgery after he broke his fibula in Week 16 against the Indianapolis Colts.
The Raiders will turn to Matt McGloin, who is in his fourth season with the team but has played sparingly over the past three and owns a career 76.1 quarterback rating.
He'll have the luxury of throwing to wide receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, excellent players capable of easing any quarterback's transition to starting, but the Broncos defense is fierce. Cornerbacks Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr. are two of the best in the NFL, and a pass rush led by the great Von Miller (13.5 sacks) is sure to give McGloin fits.
Even if the Broncos defense plays to its best capabilities, McGloin likely won't need to be spectacular to get the win.
The Broncos offense has cratered as the season has come to a close, totaling 23 points over the last three games, all of them losses. The Raiders defense has plenty of holes, especially in the secondary, but the outstanding play of Khalil Mack (11 sacks) has kept the unit respectable often enough for Oakland to keep winning.
The Raiders might also benefit from the fact the Broncos are out of the playoffs and are reportedly willing to experiment Sunday.
Head coach Gary Kubiak said Trevor Siemian will start the game at quarterback but that rookie backup Paxton Lynch will also play, per the Denver Post's Nicki Jhabvala. Lynch is going to get thrown into the line of fire, as Jhabvala noted the Broncos offensive line has struggled against the Raiders:
"Oakland’s defense — specifically its pass rush — has run roughshod over the Broncos’ offensive line in recent meetings. In a 30-20 Broncos’ loss at Oakland earlier this season, Siemian was sacked twice and hit five times, while eight of his passes were deflected. In a Week 14 loss in Denver last season, Brock Osweiler was sacked five times — all by defensive end Khalil Mack — and hit 10 times.
"
With neither team boasting a particularly potent run game, this contest is going to come down to quarterback play. The Broncos have a slight advantage thanks to a better secondary and the luxury of playing at home, which likely explains their status as one-point favorites. Still, the Raiders have so much to play for. With Carr perhaps unable to return this season, the Raiders will need every advantage they can get.
A win clinches the AFC West title and a first-round bye, and a win coupled with a New England loss means home-field advantage throughout the playoffs for the Raiders. A loss opens the door to the Kansas City Chiefs winning the division title, forcing the Raiders to play in the Wild Card Round.
It's a desperate situation for the Raiders that is made all the more painful by Carr's late-season injury. Look for McGloin to struggle against the Broncos defense and the Raiders to take the loss, potentially setting themselves up for a harrowing postseason run without their most important player.
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